Australian Politics Forum - Greenpeace co founder on climate change

Stratos Gold Member Offline Australian Politics Posts: 4725	Re: Greenpeace co founder on climate change Reply #30 - Dec 10^th, 2014 at 7:35pm Click your previous link Go to "display trend" select start date as 1998 and finish 2014 Then look at the line going up, not flat like you keep saying, even starting at a high outlier like a bad statistician.
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lee

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Re: Greenpeace co founder on climate change
Reply #31 - Dec 10^th, 2014 at 9:09pm

Yes the world is warming. It is not statistically significant.

The trend is far below the 1970-98 trend. But that is not supposed to happen, because CO2, the supposed control knob, is supposed to keep driving the trend, with increasing levels. The "CO2" trend has stopped.

That is why the climate scientists are busy scrabbling around trying to find a 'cause of the pause'. Currently 52 papers trying to explain the 'pause'.

It is not the sceptics trying to explain the pause.

'Predictions initialized over 2000–2005 improve estimates of the recent global mean temperature hiatus.'

WG1AR5_TS_Final.pdf

So even though you don't know, the IPCC does.

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Stratos

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Re: Greenpeace co founder on climate change
Reply #32 - Dec 10^th, 2014 at 9:54pm

lee wrote on Dec 10^th, 2014 at 9:09pm:

Yes the world is warming.

lee wrote on Dec 10^th, 2014 at 7:32pm:

That trend is flat

Glad to see you have changed your mind

lee wrote on Dec 10^th, 2014 at 9:09pm:

Currently 52 papers trying to explain the 'pause'.

Wow really? which 52?

lee wrote on Dec 10^th, 2014 at 9:09pm:

'Predictions initialized over 2000–2005 improve estimates of the recent global mean temperature hiatus.'

WG1AR5_TS_Final.pdf

I'll have a read when I get home.

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Pete Waldo wrote on Jan 15^th, 2014 at 11:24pm:

Thus killing those Canaanite babies while they were still innocent, was a particularly merciful act

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BatteriesNotIncluded

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Re: Greenpeace co founder on climate change
Reply #33 - Dec 10^th, 2014 at 10:22pm

lee wrote on Dec 10^th, 2014 at 9:09pm:

Yes the world is warming. It is not statistically significant.

The trend is far below the 1970-98 trend. But that is not supposed to happen, because CO2, the supposed control knob, is supposed to keep driving the trend, with increasing levels. The "CO2" trend has stopped.

That is why the climate scientists are busy scrabbling around trying to find a 'cause of the pause'. Currently 52 papers trying to explain the 'pause'.

It is not the sceptics trying to explain the pause.

'Predictions initialized over 2000–2005 improve estimates of the recent global mean temperature hiatus.'

WG1AR5_TS_Final.pdf

So even though you don't know, the IPCC does.

Ever seen a phase change diagram?

Resource bottlenecks are coming!!

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Re: Greenpeace co founder on climate change
Reply #34 - Dec 10^th, 2014 at 10:25pm

lee wrote on Dec 10^th, 2014 at 7:32pm:

So you can't read a graph.

Look at the slope from 1970 -1998. That is the trend. Look at the graph from then until present. That trend is flat, unlike the trend from 1970-98. There is a stop in the trend. Whether that trend from 1970 -98 resumes or not, the trend has stopped. It depends on whether the next trend is up or down as to whether the trend is paused.

Of course if you want a longer time frame, you can always look back at the data prior to 1880 or therabouts.

Multi point moving averages... There's dodgy and then there's propaganda that is short on substance Cool

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*Sure....they're anti competitive as any subsidised job is. It wouldn't be there without the tax payer. Very damned difficult for a brainwashed collectivist to understand that I know.... (swaggy) *

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Re: Greenpeace co founder on climate change
Reply #35 - Dec 10^th, 2014 at 10:29pm

lee wrote on Dec 10^th, 2014 at 6:59pm:

Stratos wrote on Dec 10^th, 2014 at 6:21pm:

Source?

https://scripps.ucsd.edu/programs/keelingcurve/wp-content/plugins/sio-bluemoon/g...

According to Mauna Loa chart the CO2 has increased from about 275 ppm since 1700, 125 ppm. And from approx. 350 to 400 since about 1998, 50 ppm. 50/125 = 0.4, slightly larger than 0.33.

But I said at the outset that it was basically flat since 1998. Suddenly, that's not good enough. How humorous.

And the control knob is not controlling. How do you explain that? How many excuses for the 'cause of the pause', so far?

Complex systems... It's called non-linearity.

If you see linearity it's too late!

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*Sure....they're anti competitive as any subsidised job is. It wouldn't be there without the tax payer. Very damned difficult for a brainwashed collectivist to understand that I know.... (swaggy) *

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BatteriesNotIncluded

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Re: Greenpeace co founder on climate change
Reply #36 - Dec 10^th, 2014 at 10:35pm

Rider wrote on Dec 10^th, 2014 at 1:02pm:

Stratos wrote on Dec 10^th, 2014 at 10:46am:

Rider wrote on Dec 10^th, 2014 at 9:52am:

How are those temperature rises working out for you?

I suggest you have a brief look the NASA website I'll link below. If you have any doubts about their claims, check the sources provided and compare them to wherever you are getting your information.

http://climate.nasa.gov/evidence/

Why?
Well they would...woundnt they?

NASA still displays the old 97% chestnut on this website Cheesy

So when are you going to admit that surface temps havent moved for the best part of 20 years?

'Surface temps' again.... Admission of non-linearity arising from a system boundary defined as complex....finally it's happened to me..ahem, all of us Grin

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BatteriesNotIncluded

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Re: Greenpeace co founder on climate change
Reply #37 - Dec 10^th, 2014 at 10:40pm

Soren wrote on Dec 10^th, 2014 at 6:03pm:

BatteriesNotIncluded wrote on Dec 10^th, 2014 at 10:29am:

Rider wrote on Dec 10^th, 2014 at 9:52am:

Stratos wrote on Dec 10^th, 2014 at 9:36am:

Soren, CO2 can develop plant growth, and this has been scientifically demonstrated. However, there are several concerns with it, such as an increased amount of carbohydrate in the carbohydrate/protein ratio.

Then there is the much greater concern that rising temperatures and changing climate could have a catastrophic effect on worldwide crops that will far outweigh the benefits of having a greater plant growth from C02

How are those temperature rises working out for you?

Ever heard of a phase change diagram?

Was the phase change diagram predicted or was it put there coz the models didn't work?

Phase change implies complexity I.e. Non-linearity!

Name one thing not defined as complex!

You got nothing tryhard!!

Thanks for playing!!!

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BatteriesNotIncluded

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Re: Greenpeace co founder on climate change
Reply #38 - Dec 10^th, 2014 at 10:42pm

lee wrote on Dec 10^th, 2014 at 6:00pm:

Stratos wrote on Dec 10^th, 2014 at 12:51pm:

Lee, did you check out any of the sources on the website? They have citations for all of their claims.

From IPCC projections, from conjecture. But from empirical evidence? Excluding homogenised temperatures, of course, with 2.500 Sq Km grids. Because the temperature in those grids will be the same obviously. No variation due to air pressure, whether from height or weather.

So if we have a look at NOOA data, division of NASA, from 1998 to present, we see that it is fairly flat and moving sideways. Quite unlike 1970 to 1998.

http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/cag/time-series/global/globe/land_ocean/ytd/10/1880-201...

CO2 emissions have increased by about 1/3 since 1998, but as shown, the temps have not reflected that increase.

So, for a moment, ignore the citations,and simply use your eyes.

Interesting use of the word conjecture!

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*Sure....they're anti competitive as any subsidised job is. It wouldn't be there without the tax payer. Very damned difficult for a brainwashed collectivist to understand that I know.... (swaggy) *

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lee

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Re: Greenpeace co founder on climate change
Reply #39 - Dec 11^th, 2014 at 11:06am

The CO2 meme says that increasing CO2 should lead to an increasing temperature trend. A 33% increase since 1998 should be providing that, if the meme is true. Not one that is basically flat. The trend is not even staying the same as 1970-98.

Phil Jones of CRU, University of East Anglia, home of HADCRUt, said if temperatures were to stay flat for 15 years, it would be seen as a problem.

Ben Santer, one of the authors cited by NASA said 17 years.

Now it is pretty flat for 16 years, so in between them both.

Conjecture? Something that is less than a theory, having nothing to back it up? Like Trenberth's 'missing heat' hiding in the ocean? Pure postulation. Also less than hypothesis.

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« Last Edit: Dec 11^th, 2014 at 11:13am by lee »

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Re: Greenpeace co founder on climate change
Reply #40 - Dec 11^th, 2014 at 1:55pm

lee wrote on Dec 11^th, 2014 at 11:06am:

The CO2 meme says that increasing CO2 should lead to an increasing temperature trend. A 33% increase since 1998 should be providing that, if the meme is true. Not one that is basically flat. The trend is not even staying the same as 1970-98.

Phil Jones of CRU, University of East Anglia, home of HADCRUt, said if temperatures were to stay flat for 15 years, it would be seen as a problem.

Ben Santer, one of the authors cited by NASA said 17 years.

Now it is pretty flat for 16 years, so in between them both.

Conjecture? Something that is less than a theory, having nothing to back it up? Like Trenberth's 'missing heat' hiding in the ocean? Pure postulation. Also less than hypothesis.

Fact one: phase change is a known reality Cheesy

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*Sure....they're anti competitive as any subsidised job is. It wouldn't be there without the tax payer. Very damned difficult for a brainwashed collectivist to understand that I know.... (swaggy) *

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Stratos

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Re: Greenpeace co founder on climate change
Reply #41 - Dec 11^th, 2014 at 2:04pm

Lee, stop being disingenuous.

You can do this by:

1. Stop measuring data from 1998, as this is a statistical outlier, and will skew any data that comes after if as used as a start point.

2. Stop saying the trend is "flat" when you have been shown that it clearly isn't. You admitted this in a previous post. EVEN if you take the 1998 start date the trend is still upwards. If that is flat you must have a terrible time riding your bike.

(I'll have some time to read that report tonight)

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Pete Waldo wrote on Jan 15^th, 2014 at 11:24pm:

Thus killing those Canaanite babies while they were still innocent, was a particularly merciful act

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lee Gold Member Offline Australian Politics Posts: 21603 Gender:	Re: Greenpeace co founder on climate change Reply #42 - Dec 11^th, 2014 at 3:53pm I said basically flat, That is there is a small divergence but not statistically significant. But you knew that. Even if you remove the outlier by using a straightedge from 1970 on, the trend stops about 2000. But that probably isn't convenient.
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Re: Greenpeace co founder on climate change
Reply #43 - Dec 11^th, 2014 at 4:28pm

lee wrote on Dec 11^th, 2014 at 3:53pm:

I said basically flat, That is there is a small divergence but not statistically significant. But you knew that.

Even if you remove the outlier by using a straightedge from 1970 on, the trend stops about 2000.

But that probably isn't convenient.

Lol, the river either grows or it stagnates and dies dear mr stagnant !! Cheesy

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*Sure....they're anti competitive as any subsidised job is. It wouldn't be there without the tax payer. Very damned difficult for a brainwashed collectivist to understand that I know.... (swaggy) *

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lee Gold Member Offline Australian Politics Posts: 21603 Gender:	Re: Greenpeace co founder on climate change Reply #44 - Dec 11^th, 2014 at 5:15pm So what is the postulated level of accuracy of a 5x5 degree grid square? I would suggest greater than the NOOA's +0.46 degree/ century trend since 1998. Especially when land based temperature is measured to 1/10 degree.
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