Australian Politics Forum - Solar cheaper than grid by 2015 in 25 US States.

MOTR

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Solar cheaper than grid by 2015 in 25 US States.
Jul 10^th, 2014 at 6:59pm

That's the prediction of David Crane, CEO of utility NRG.

Quote:

The cost of solar panels has come down 75% in the last four years. Although a trade war with China and India over low cost solar panels will be a "bump in the road," this basic trend is going to continue as the learning curve for the global solar photovoltaic industry is now well established at a 20% reduction of unit manufacturing cost for every doubling of the installed base.

David Crane, who runs NRG Energy, says that in fully half the states of the union, electricity from residential solar panels will be cost-competitive with that delivered by local electric utilities by next year.

Another important matter is that electric vehicles will enable a more decentralized, self-sufficient energy system. John writes: “Once homes can not only generate but store energy, it’s at least possible they could decouple from the grid entirely–meaning they’re lost to their local utility forever.”

“Crane is positioning NRG to be the supplier of solar arrays, fuel cells, and microturbines to power customers in this age of grid obsolescence,” Navigant Research writes. “It’s remarkable to see a utility betting on the grid’s eventual obsolescence, but it’s important to note that within that framework, NRG is still maintaining its core business as a power provider.”

http://m.dailykos.com/story/2014/07/05/1311341/-Residential-solar-will-be-cheape...

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miketrees

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Re: Solar cheaper than grid by 2015 in 25 US States.
Reply #1 - Jul 10^th, 2014 at 7:21pm

I can see some real big problems for power generators , governments that persist in providing utilities and poor people that cant afford the up front costs of solar power.

When the first person decouples from the grid then the unit price for everyone left must go up.
This makes it more likely for the second person to decouple from the grid and so on.

I can afford to get off the grid, but I bet we have some tax that will hit us to support the grid.

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MOTR

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Re: Solar cheaper than grid by 2015 in 25 US States.
Reply #2 - Jul 10^th, 2014 at 7:30pm

miketrees wrote on Jul 10^th, 2014 at 7:21pm:

I can see some real big problems for power generators , governments that persist in providing utilities and poor people that cant afford the up front costs of solar power.

When the first person decouples from the grid then the unit price for everyone left must go up.
This makes it more likely for the second person to decouple from the grid and so on.

I can afford to get off the grid, but I bet we have some tax that will hit us to support the grid.

I can see utility companies entering into leasing arrangements with home owners that can't afford solar panels.

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Hunt says Coalition accepts IPCC findings

"What does this mean? It means that we need to do practical things that actually reduce emissions."

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rabbitoh08

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Re: Solar cheaper than grid by 2015 in 25 US States.
Reply #3 - Jul 10^th, 2014 at 8:19pm

Electricity was free for a while in Qld last Wednesday:

The combination of low demand and strong output from the Queensland’s 1.1GW of rooftop solar helped send the state’s electricity prices into negative territory on Wednesday – in the middle of the day.
http://reneweconomy.com.au/2014/solar-sends-energy-prices-below-zero-in-middle-o...

Coal fired power is a dying industry.

Why does our government continue to subsidise it at the expense of better alternatives?

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miketrees Gold Member Offline Australian Politics Posts: 6492 Gender:	Re: Solar cheaper than grid by 2015 in 25 US States. Reply #4 - Jul 10^th, 2014 at 9:58pm Why does our government continue to subsidise it at the expense of better alternatives? Probably because there will be so many people that cant/ wont install their own solar. So yes the business model might be buy/hire lease solar setups.
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BatteriesNotIncluded

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Re: Solar cheaper than grid by 2015 in 25 US States.
Reply #5 - Jul 10^th, 2014 at 11:14pm

miketrees wrote on Jul 10^th, 2014 at 9:58pm:

Why does our government continue to subsidise it at the expense of better alternatives?

Probably because there will be so many people that cant/ wont install their own solar.

So yes the business model might be buy/hire lease solar setups.

Because australia is quite corrupt: go the quarry!

oi oi oi!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

paper tigers r us yayyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyy!!

** most real estate shills own one house cos they know it's a joke!!

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*Sure....they're anti competitive as any subsidised job is. It wouldn't be there without the tax payer. Very damned difficult for a brainwashed collectivist to understand that I know.... (swaggy) *

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BatteriesNotIncluded

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Re: Solar cheaper than grid by 2015 in 25 US States.
Reply #6 - Jul 10^th, 2014 at 11:17pm

rabbitoh08 wrote on Jul 10^th, 2014 at 8:19pm:

Electricity was free for a while in Qld last Wednesday:

The combination of low demand and strong output from the Queensland’s 1.1GW of rooftop solar helped send the state’s electricity prices into negative territory on Wednesday – in the middle of the day.
http://reneweconomy.com.au/2014/solar-sends-energy-prices-below-zero-in-middle-o...

Coal fired power is a dying industry.

Why does our government continue to subsidise it at the expense of better alternatives?

They are followers, cos the australian people who lead them are tryhard conservatives...

....point out my error Cheesy

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*Sure....they're anti competitive as any subsidised job is. It wouldn't be there without the tax payer. Very damned difficult for a brainwashed collectivist to understand that I know.... (swaggy) *

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BatteriesNotIncluded

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Re: Solar cheaper than grid by 2015 in 25 US States.
Reply #7 - Jul 10^th, 2014 at 11:18pm

MOTR wrote on Jul 10^th, 2014 at 7:30pm:

miketrees wrote on Jul 10^th, 2014 at 7:21pm:

I can see some real big problems for power generators , governments that persist in providing utilities and poor people that cant afford the up front costs of solar power.

When the first person decouples from the grid then the unit price for everyone left must go up.
This makes it more likely for the second person to decouple from the grid and so on.

I can afford to get off the grid, but I bet we have some tax that will hit us to support the grid.

I can see utility companies entering into leasing arrangements with home owners that can't afford solar panels.

- you have the f(vision) it would seem! Cool

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*Sure....they're anti competitive as any subsidised job is. It wouldn't be there without the tax payer. Very damned difficult for a brainwashed collectivist to understand that I know.... (swaggy) *

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BatteriesNotIncluded

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people died for this!

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Re: Solar cheaper than grid by 2015 in 25 US States.
Reply #8 - Jul 10^th, 2014 at 11:22pm

miketrees wrote on Jul 10^th, 2014 at 7:21pm:

I can see some real big problems for power generators , governments that persist in providing utilities and poor people that cant afford the up front costs of solar power.

When the first person decouples from the grid then the unit price for everyone left must go up.
This makes it more likely for the second person to decouple from the grid and so on.

I can afford to get off the grid, but I bet we have some tax that will hit us to support the grid.

Of course, until the longer term gain is recognised by government and it begins to dominate over the short term lobbying of vested interests ..

(..it's like a titration test i tells u'll Cheesy

)

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*Sure....they're anti competitive as any subsidised job is. It wouldn't be there without the tax payer. Very damned difficult for a brainwashed collectivist to understand that I know.... (swaggy) *

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BatteriesNotIncluded

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Re: Solar cheaper than grid by 2015 in 25 US States.
Reply #9 - Jul 10^th, 2014 at 11:24pm

MOTR wrote on Jul 10^th, 2014 at 6:59pm:

That's the prediction of David Crane, CEO of utility NRG.

Quote:

The cost of solar panels has come down 75% in the last four years. Although a trade war with China and India over low cost solar panels will be a "bump in the road," this basic trend is going to continue as the learning curve for the global solar photovoltaic industry is now well established at a 20% reduction of unit manufacturing cost for every doubling of the installed base.

David Crane, who runs NRG Energy, says that in fully half the states of the union, electricity from residential solar panels will be cost-competitive with that delivered by local electric utilities by next year.

Another important matter is that electric vehicles will enable a more decentralized, self-sufficient energy system. John writes: “Once homes can not only generate but store energy, it’s at least possible they could decouple from the grid entirely–meaning they’re lost to their local utility forever.”

“Crane is positioning NRG to be the supplier of solar arrays, fuel cells, and microturbines to power customers in this age of grid obsolescence,” Navigant Research writes. “It’s remarkable to see a utility betting on the grid’s eventual obsolescence, but it’s important to note that within that framework, NRG is still maintaining its core business as a power provider.”

http://m.dailykos.com/story/2014/07/05/1311341/-Residential-solar-will-be-cheape...

Formula E is here: the disinvestment campaign is on! Cool

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*Sure....they're anti competitive as any subsidised job is. It wouldn't be there without the tax payer. Very damned difficult for a brainwashed collectivist to understand that I know.... (swaggy) *

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rabbitoh08

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Re: Solar cheaper than grid by 2015 in 25 US States.
Reply #10 - Jul 11^th, 2014 at 12:48am

miketrees wrote on Jul 10^th, 2014 at 9:58pm:

Why does our government continue to subsidise it at the expense of better alternatives?

Probably because there will be so many people that cant/ wont install their own solar.

So yes the business model might be buy/hire lease solar setups.

The business model may be for the States to start claiming ownership of the sun and charging royalties for it - just as they do now, claiming ownership of minerals.

The problem is that the old, dying coal industry - and the associated government that supports it is just ancient.

If there was a royalty on solar or wind resource (just as arbitrary as a royalty on underground resource) - the the state governments would subsidise solar and wind - like they now do coal.

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BatteriesNotIncluded

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Re: Solar cheaper than grid by 2015 in 25 US States.
Reply #11 - Jul 11^th, 2014 at 12:57am

rabbitoh08 wrote on Jul 11^th, 2014 at 12:48am:

miketrees wrote on Jul 10^th, 2014 at 9:58pm:

Why does our government continue to subsidise it at the expense of better alternatives?

Probably because there will be so many people that cant/ wont install their own solar.

So yes the business model might be buy/hire lease solar setups.

The business model may be for the States to start claiming ownership of the sun and charging royalties for it - just as they do now, claiming ownership of minerals.

The problem is that the old, dying coal industry - and the associated government that supports it is just ancient.

If there was a royalty on solar or wind resource (just as arbitrary as a royalty on underground resource) - the the state governments would subsidise solar and wind - like they now do coal.

Yeh, well boundaries took a long part of history to resolve: one might even say the LIONS SHARE OF HISTORY! Cheesy

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*Sure....they're anti competitive as any subsidised job is. It wouldn't be there without the tax payer. Very damned difficult for a brainwashed collectivist to understand that I know.... (swaggy) *

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freediver

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Re: Solar cheaper than grid by 2015 in 25 US States.
Reply #12 - Jul 19^th, 2014 at 10:43am

miketrees wrote on Jul 10^th, 2014 at 7:21pm:

I can see some real big problems for power generators , governments that persist in providing utilities and poor people that cant afford the up front costs of solar power.

When the first person decouples from the grid then the unit price for everyone left must go up.
This makes it more likely for the second person to decouple from the grid and so on.

I can afford to get off the grid, but I bet we have some tax that will hit us to support the grid.

Perhaps they can take the lead from poor people who can't afford the upfront cost of a house.

The grid is still going to be an important part, even if everyone does have solar. If you are completely disconnected, you need to have a lot of storage (expensive batteries) within your own home and a significant over-capacity - either that or deal with not having enough electricity on a regular basis. Faced with that choice, a power line to your home is still going to be cheaper.

If you do have a grid, then it is a lot cheaper to have all the solar panels on one factory roof where one person can maintain them (wipe the birdshit off) rather than everyone getting on their own roof regularly and paying $500 for a qualified electrician ever time something goes wrong with their $500 worth of solar panels. Better yet is to have the solar panels away from the city, so that the power does not go out if a cloud bank rolls across the city.

The same economic forces that lead to us having enourmous coal fired power stations out in the middle of nowhere (you could get a generator for $200 and stick that in your backyard) will lead to us having enourmous solar arrays out in the middle of nowhere (plus wind turbines, hydro etc). The only difference will be that there will be a few more of them spread out a bit to avoid issues with cloud cover etc.

rabbitoh08 wrote on Jul 10^th, 2014 at 8:19pm:

Electricity was free for a while in Qld last Wednesday:

The combination of low demand and strong output from the Queensland’s 1.1GW of rooftop solar helped send the state’s electricity prices into negative territory on Wednesday – in the middle of the day.
http://reneweconomy.com.au/2014/solar-sends-energy-prices-below-zero-in-middle-o...

Coal fired power is a dying industry.

Why does our government continue to subsidise it at the expense of better alternatives?

There is a pumped storage hydroelectric facility on wivenhoe dam - basically a hydroelectric battery. When the price goes negative, they get paid a fortune to pump water uphill. Then when it is particularly expensive, they get paid a fortune again to generate electricity.

Part of the problem is economic. We are too used to a steady supply of electricity (and water etc) at a constant price, which was a necessity with the old technology, but not any more. Big industry pays the spot price for electricity, but household's don't. A big chunk of the electricity market is not exposed to the fluctuating price of electricity and carries on using the same amount regardless. This causes the fluctuations to be even greater. Off-peak electricity is only a tiny step towards correcting this.

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« Last Edit: Jul 19^th, 2014 at 10:51am by freediver »

People who can't distinguish between etymology and entomology bug me in ways I cannot put into words.

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