Australian Politics Forum - Ice age on its way...

gizmo_2655

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Re: Ice age on its way...
Reply #45 - Jan 21^st, 2014 at 2:56pm

BatteriesNotIncluded wrote on Jan 20^th, 2014 at 7:03pm:

gizmo_2655 wrote on Jan 20^th, 2014 at 12:00pm:

# wrote on Jan 19^th, 2014 at 8:12pm:

perceptions_now wrote on Jan 19^th, 2014 at 3:23pm:

A few observations -
1) We are now at or past the average times pan, when the climate has shifted, over the last 450,000 years.
2) There may be a number of reasons for that, but one SHOULD consider that the cycle MAY be breaking and this could lead to a Venus style Planetary climate on the up side OR it MAY be that the Ice Age has only been delayed a little, possibly by our build up of GHG's.
3) Either way, humanity & many other species live within a "Goldilocks Climate Range" and WHEN (not if) the climate breaks out of the current "Goldilocks Climate Range" that we have enjoyed for some time now and that has seen our numbers flourish, our existence will become much more difficult.
4) When we do break out of the "Goldilocks Climate Range", our current Local & Global Economic structures will become totally redundant, as/and our Population levels will reduce quickly & significantly.
5) There is no validity to the assertion that a break out on the Climate up side will be any better than a break out on the Climate downside.
Either way the future of humanity will come under great stress & either way our survival can not be guaranteed!

The question is whether we've affected the balance to an extreme that may not be survivable. Human beings have survived ice ages. Could we survive:
Quote:

Stephen Hawking: "We don’t know where global warming will stop but the worst case scenario is that the earth will become like its sister planet Venus, with a temperature of 250 degrees C ..."

Could those conditions be survived by anything that we might recognise as life? I really don't want to be a member of the species that sterilises a planet.

Don't worry, you aren't, and won't be. Humanity will not and cannot 'sterilise the planet'..

Definition time is it Shocked

?!!

Yep, we have the technology to modify our life enough to avoid pretty much everything, if we want to.

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"I just get sick of people who place a label on someone else with their own definition.

It's similar to a strawman fallacy"
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# Gold Member Offline A fool is certain: an ignorant fool, absolutely so Posts: 2603	Re: Ice age on its way... Reply #46 - Jan 21^st, 2014 at 7:51pm gizmo_2655 wrote on Jan 21^st, 2014 at 2:50pm: ... Skeptics don't use 'models', they use real world temperatures.. Wouldn't you need the data in advance, if you're going to predict what might happen? How do you get "real world temperatures" before the event?
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lee Gold Member Offline Australian Politics Posts: 21639 Gender:	Re: Ice age on its way... Reply #47 - Jan 21^st, 2014 at 8:30pm # wrote on Jan 21^st, 2014 at 7:51pm: Wouldn't you need the data in advance, if you're going to predict what might happen? Data in advance is not data- It is projection, prognostication, prediction but not data. Like Climate Models.
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Setanta

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Re: Ice age on its way...
Reply #48 - Jan 21^st, 2014 at 9:17pm

lee wrote on Jan 21^st, 2014 at 8:30pm:

# wrote on Jan 21^st, 2014 at 7:51pm:

Wouldn't you need the data in advance, if you're going to predict what might happen?

Data in advance is not data- It is projection, prognostication, prediction but not data. Like Climate Models.

True, but that is why he is asking Gizmo about "Skeptics don't use 'models', they use real world temperatures.." How can you make predictions with real world data?

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namnugenot

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Re: Ice age on its way...
Reply #49 - Jan 21^st, 2014 at 10:56pm

lee wrote on Jan 21^st, 2014 at 8:30pm:

# wrote on Jan 21^st, 2014 at 7:51pm:

Wouldn't you need the data in advance, if you're going to predict what might happen?

Data in advance is not data- It is projection, prognostication, prediction but not data. Like Climate Models.

And here's the thing...what you chose as a data set influences that projection and you may get what appear to be perfectly reasonable prognostications and predictions based on that restricted data. You hear words like unprecedented and unparalleled quite a lot but it's really a shabby deception, a bit of theatre and flimflam. The 1950's are chosen because that's what pushes their barrow.

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Setanta

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Re: Ice age on its way...
Reply #50 - Jan 21^st, 2014 at 11:18pm

namnugenot wrote on Jan 21^st, 2014 at 10:56pm:

lee wrote on Jan 21^st, 2014 at 8:30pm:

# wrote on Jan 21^st, 2014 at 7:51pm:

Wouldn't you need the data in advance, if you're going to predict what might happen?

Data in advance is not data- It is projection, prognostication, prediction but not data. Like Climate Models.

And here's the thing...what you chose as a data set influences that projection and you may get what appear to be perfectly reasonable prognostications and predictions based on that restricted data. You hear words like unprecedented and unparalleled quite a lot but it's really a shabby deception, a bit of theatre and flimflam. The 1950's are chosen because that's what pushes their barrow.

Ah yes, I see what you mean.. Like cherry picking data like the last 17 years or other short terms in the record as this shows with the blue lines and ignoring the overall trend... I get it now! Roll Eyes

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namnugenot

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Re: Ice age on its way...
Reply #51 - Jan 22^nd, 2014 at 8:16am

Setanta wrote on Jan 21^st, 2014 at 11:18pm:

namnugenot wrote on Jan 21^st, 2014 at 10:56pm:

lee wrote on Jan 21^st, 2014 at 8:30pm:

# wrote on Jan 21^st, 2014 at 7:51pm:

Wouldn't you need the data in advance, if you're going to predict what might happen?

Data in advance is not data- It is projection, prognostication, prediction but not data. Like Climate Models.

And here's the thing...what you chose as a data set influences that projection and you may get what appear to be perfectly reasonable prognostications and predictions based on that restricted data. You hear words like unprecedented and unparalleled quite a lot but it's really a shabby deception, a bit of theatre and flimflam. The 1950's are chosen because that's what pushes their barrow.

Ah yes, I see what you mean.. Like cherry picking data like the last 17 years or other short terms in the record as this shows with the blue lines and ignoring the overall trend... I get it now! Roll Eyes

http://www.ozpolitic.com/album/forum-attachments/Skeptics_v_Realists_001.jpg

No not shorter terms, longer ones that better reflect historic climate variability and even using data from before widespread or in fact any fossil fuel usage. Climate shifts take place over long timescales. You want a more realistic view of climate you know try this one...

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Doctor Jolly

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Re: Ice age on its way...
Reply #52 - Jan 22^nd, 2014 at 8:56am

BlOoDy RiPpEr wrote on Jan 19^th, 2014 at 12:10pm:

St George of the Garden wrote on Jan 19^th, 2014 at 11:04am:

Yeah, it is funny and shows the desperation some feel to discredit AGW.

But global temperatures have been climbing all the time.

Even if we do go into a “little ice age” (doubt it) emissions are still growing (might accelerate as more fuel burned to heat houses and workplaces etc) and the oceans are still acidifying. To Adelaideans this week the thought of an iceage has its attractions LOL!

And if you read the story the sun heats up to a point then cools down, only this time its a little early.
Its one thing all the global warming alarmist always leave out of the equation is that the heat that the sun puts off changes the temperature of our planet. The fact that the sun has been warming for quite some time just shows the carbon had nothing to do with it.

Actually its the exact opposite. The Sun has been low, yet the temperatures have climbed.

This is very bad for deniers, because it adds more evidence to AGW.

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Setanta

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Re: Ice age on its way...
Reply #53 - Jan 22^nd, 2014 at 10:43am

namnugenot wrote on Jan 22^nd, 2014 at 8:16am:

Setanta wrote on Jan 21^st, 2014 at 11:18pm:

namnugenot wrote on Jan 21^st, 2014 at 10:56pm:

lee wrote on Jan 21^st, 2014 at 8:30pm:

# wrote on Jan 21^st, 2014 at 7:51pm:

Wouldn't you need the data in advance, if you're going to predict what might happen?

Data in advance is not data- It is projection, prognostication, prediction but not data. Like Climate Models.

And here's the thing...what you chose as a data set influences that projection and you may get what appear to be perfectly reasonable prognostications and predictions based on that restricted data. You hear words like unprecedented and unparalleled quite a lot but it's really a shabby deception, a bit of theatre and flimflam. The 1950's are chosen because that's what pushes their barrow.

Ah yes, I see what you mean.. Like cherry picking data like the last 17 years or other short terms in the record as this shows with the blue lines and ignoring the overall trend... I get it now! Roll Eyes

http://www.ozpolitic.com/album/forum-attachments/Skeptics_v_Realists_001.jpg

No not shorter terms, longer ones that better reflect historic climate variability and even using data from before widespread or in fact any fossil fuel usage. Climate shifts take place over long timescales. You want a more realistic view of climate you know try this one...

http://www.daviesand.com/Choices/Precautionary_Planning/New_Data/IceCores1.gif

Your point? Don't you see the end of the graph at 0? Co2 still rising and if it followed the trend of the other highs and lows the temp and co2 should be falling, they aren't.

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lee

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Re: Ice age on its way...
Reply #54 - Jan 22^nd, 2014 at 11:03am

'Stephen Hawking: "We don’t know where global warming will stop but the worst case scenario is that the earth will become like its sister planet Venus, with a temperature of 250 degrees C ..." '

Can you explain this I'm lost.

Water is a stable compound - freeze it, boil it; it stays water. If you separate it, eg electrolysis, it quickly forms - water. From what I have seen the only mechanism, whilst it is in this fleeting separated state, is for the H2 to be emitted to space.

How in a "bubble" is that achieved?

If it remains around earth as water vapour it will increase the radiation to space, cooling the earth.

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« Last Edit: Jan 22^nd, 2014 at 11:11am by lee »

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namnugenot

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Re: Ice age on its way...
Reply #55 - Jan 22^nd, 2014 at 11:37am

Setanta wrote on Jan 22^nd, 2014 at 10:43am:

namnugenot wrote on Jan 22^nd, 2014 at 8:16am:

Setanta wrote on Jan 21^st, 2014 at 11:18pm:

namnugenot wrote on Jan 21^st, 2014 at 10:56pm:

lee wrote on Jan 21^st, 2014 at 8:30pm:

# wrote on Jan 21^st, 2014 at 7:51pm:

Wouldn't you need the data in advance, if you're going to predict what might happen?

Data in advance is not data- It is projection, prognostication, prediction but not data. Like Climate Models.

And here's the thing...what you chose as a data set influences that projection and you may get what appear to be perfectly reasonable prognostications and predictions based on that restricted data. You hear words like unprecedented and unparalleled quite a lot but it's really a shabby deception, a bit of theatre and flimflam. The 1950's are chosen because that's what pushes their barrow.

Ah yes, I see what you mean.. Like cherry picking data like the last 17 years or other short terms in the record as this shows with the blue lines and ignoring the overall trend... I get it now! Roll Eyes

http://www.ozpolitic.com/album/forum-attachments/Skeptics_v_Realists_001.jpg

No not shorter terms, longer ones that better reflect historic climate variability and even using data from before widespread or in fact any fossil fuel usage. Climate shifts take place over long timescales. You want a more realistic view of climate you know try this one...

http://www.daviesand.com/Choices/Precautionary_Planning/New_Data/IceCores1.gif

Your point? Don't you see the end of the graph at 0? Co2 still rising and if it followed the trend of the other highs and lows the temp and co2 should be falling, they aren't.

It's called natural variability...and yes your point? CO2 for the most part of the data collected and represented by the graph lagged temperature rise by on average about 600 years (underling the need to use adequate timescales for climate) meaning for the most part of that 450K years temperature increase was in front of CO2 rise and CO2 was still rising when temperature had been on the way down for hundreds of years and vice versa. So you're comfortable with the effect preceding it's "causation".
So if you now proceed to the x axis (the one on the bottom) you will note that for over 10K years the temperature has been reasonably stable and going slightly down as CO2 has been increasing.
So back to your statement "...temp and CO2 should be falling, they aren't " Your right CO2 going gangbusters (but still within the realms of natural variability) and temperature going down over that 10K year span of time. Or should I congratulate you for disproving the hypothesis that CO2 drives global temperature increase.

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#

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Re: Ice age on its way...
Reply #56 - Jan 22^nd, 2014 at 1:59pm

lee wrote on Jan 22^nd, 2014 at 11:03am:

'Stephen Hawking: "We don’t know where global warming will stop but the worst case scenario is that the earth will become like its sister planet Venus, with a temperature of 250 degrees C ..." '

Can you explain this I'm lost.

Water is a stable compound - freeze it, boil it; it stays water. If you separate it, eg electrolysis, it quickly forms - water. From what I have seen the only mechanism, whilst it is in this fleeting separated state, is for the H2 to be emitted to space.

How in a "bubble" is that achieved?

If it remains around earth as water vapour it will increase the radiation to space, cooling the earth.

Isn't water vapour a greenhouse gas?

Why would water vapour "increase the radiation to space"? Are you confusing water vapour and clouds? Are clouds water vapour?

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#

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Re: Ice age on its way...
Reply #57 - Jan 22^nd, 2014 at 2:03pm

lee wrote on Jan 21^st, 2014 at 8:30pm:

# wrote on Jan 21^st, 2014 at 7:51pm:

Wouldn't you need the data in advance, if you're going to predict what might happen?

Data in advance is not data- It is projection, prognostication, prediction but not data. Like Climate Models.

If we're to manage risk, don't we need to predict? Are you admitting that Conservatives can't manage risk?

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#

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Re: Ice age on its way...
Reply #58 - Jan 22^nd, 2014 at 2:07pm

namnugenot wrote on Jan 21^st, 2014 at 10:56pm:

lee wrote on Jan 21^st, 2014 at 8:30pm:

# wrote on Jan 21^st, 2014 at 7:51pm:

Wouldn't you need the data in advance, if you're going to predict what might happen?

Data in advance is not data- It is projection, prognostication, prediction but not data. Like Climate Models.

And here's the thing...what you chose as a data set influences that projection and you may get what appear to be perfectly reasonable prognostications and predictions based on that restricted data. You hear words like unprecedented and unparalleled quite a lot but it's really a shabby deception, a bit of theatre and flimflam. The 1950's are chosen because that's what pushes their barrow.

Of course, of course. The vast majority of the best qualified are engaged in a grand conspiracy for their own shabby ends. Not only that, but every organisation of reputable scientists on the planet is in it with them.

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lee

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Re: Ice age on its way...
Reply #59 - Jan 22^nd, 2014 at 2:26pm

'Are clouds water vapour?'

'Clouds form when the invisible water vapour in the air condenses into visible water droplets or ice crystals.'

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/learning/clouds/what-are-clouds

So condensed water vapour. More water vapour more can condense.

'The study of clouds, where they occur, and their characteristics, play a key role in the understanding of climate change. Low, thick clouds primarily reflect solar radiation and cool the surface of the Earth.'

http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/Features/Clouds/

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