Grendel wrote on Nov 29
th, 2013 at 12:56pm:
Bam wrote on Nov 29
th, 2013 at 11:53am:
It is too early to make predictions about the result of the next election, but the occasional opinion poll that puts the ALP in front suggest that it's not impossible. Rudd's choosing to leave politics will be particularly helpful to the ALP's future chances.
How both sides perform over the next three years will decide their fate. Early on, the Coalition are faltering in their handling of foreign relations and their perceived breaking of an election promise, while the ALP have so far run reasonably well. But the race to the next election is a marathon, not a sprint, and we still have 92% or so of the race to run.
Agree with most of the sentiments but it's over 95% left to run.
It is 12 weeks since the election. Three years is 156 weeks. 12/156 = 0.0769; hence my 92%.
Quote:Labor have so far failed to show they've actually learned anything from their defeat.
Disputable. The ALP leadership election ballot was intended to show a new way of choosing a leader; while it was a bit stage managed it was far from the rancorous leadership challenges of the past.
Quote:So they are leaving any run late by the looks and it appears to me at least, with those in charge, they are not likely to have learned anything nor will they change before the next election.
With nearly three years to the next election, it's a bit of a stretch to assert that it's too late for any "run". There's plenty of time for all parties to present their credentials to the electorate before the next election.