Karnal
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I wonder about opinion polls in this case. Rudd's polling hasn't been tested over time. Respondents use polls to make a point. Sure, voters might be happy with the change to Rudd, but are they committed to voting Labor?
My money's still on the Coalition, and I'm betting on a shoe-in.
As tasteless and hypocritical as an Abbott government will be, Labor will get the opportunity to reform itself in opposition. I doubt Rudd has the ability to do this, but who knows? Maybe the NSW right will take serious action.
And I doubt this too.
The best we can hope for is a Liberal leadership transition to Turnbull in a couple of terms. But again, I doubt Abbott will give up power so easily. Without anything drastic happening (and the Libs aren't known for drastic changes), we're stuck with Abbott - possibly for a generation.
Over time, the legacy of the current government will rot and start to smell. The Libs rode on Keating's unpopularity and high interest rates for a over decade. They're perfectly capable of recalling the memory of Labor chaos, and they will - for years.
And they have every right to do so. The Labor Party is toxic. It's rotting from within.
I think this election is the last opportunity Labor will have to form government for at least a decade. We all know they don't deserve it. The only thing that will get them over the line is the mistrust of Abbott.
Australia faces tough economic times, and people will keep the Libs in to manage this. The current deficit will haunt the Labor brand, and I can't see anyone in the party now who's capable of selling a new day.
I know this isn't a bright outlook, but let's get real. Labor did it to themselves when they ousted a first-term PM.
It's in the interest of the media to sell a real competition here - and we all want this - but let's face facts. Without real action (and there isn't time for this), Rudd will not get the ALP over the line. Labor's self-created problems are far too entrenched.
Rudd's only window of opportunity is the genuine fear of what an Abbott government would look like. He might have closed the gap, but this fear would need to be magnified to grotesque proportions for the electorate to deliberately vote Labor back in.
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