longweekend58 wrote on Jun 11
th, 2012 at 4:19pm:
thats a bit presumptuous, is it not? you have zero ability to know that and conventional wisdom would actually suggest the opposite. After Whitlams flogging in 1975, Fraser went to an early election in 1977 with zero particular reason and Whitlam was flogged again but virtually the same margin. Abbott would be taking no chance at all. It would be a hated carbon tax that labor senators refuse to remove even with a massive mandate. And you want to think that Abbott woudl suffer in that environment? There is actually a possibility he could gain seats and especially in the senate. Its a small risk to Abbott but a HUGE risk the Labor not to pass the repeal.
But What Id really like you to answer is why you think Labor isnt obligated to support the repeal in line with a massive mandate just as they demanded the coalition support the workchoiecs repeal? This isnt a question of politics or timeing of DD etc. This is an issue about the conventions and principles of parliament. If they breach that convention then they will destroy themselves for a generation.
Do you not yet realise thatr much of the opposition to a CT is not on the tax itself but rather the breathtaking breach of an election promise? She was reneging on it withing days of the election. THAT is what people are really hating. The deceitful manner in which it was brought about. And that is why labor supporters are among the large number of people demanding it be repealed. And you really dont want to antagonise them by encouraging them to vote Liberal in the senate while maintaining their lower house allegiance to Labor.
It would be a hated carbon tax that labor senators refuse to remove even with a massive mandate. By 2013 not many will care about a carbon price - by a DD election towards 2015 I doulbt they will even remember there was a problem.
If Abbnott has a large majority the electorate will more than likely look at moderating the excess and the natural tendancy will be to move toward a more normalised position, they will not keep the rage particularly since it is only manufactured and not genuine.
support the repeal in line with a massive mandate just as they demanded the coalition support the workchoiecs repeal? This isnt a question of politics or timeing of DD etc. This is an issue about the conventions and principles of parliament. You did not look at Abbnott scuttling the ETS in the same light with a huge mandate supported by Labor and the Liberals in place? You rather have the horse in front of the cart - first lets see if there really is a mandate of any type and if so would it naturally lead the Greens or Labor to abandon their position because of the dishonest opposition we have seen.
It may well end up a good idea to support the change as I am fairly certain that it is the last thing the Liberals would want, Technically it would be very difficult to remove at that time (almost impossible) and the Liberals clearly can not afford to do it let alone replace it with their new costly ineffective system.
The Liberals I suspect would be very happy to be forced to keep the carbon price as is till the new trading system commences. In reality they would be more likely to try and modify the transition more in line with their preferences.
You make a big deal about a broken promise which if it was broken it wasn't by much and had little impact, it is interesting the way people who go on about this were happy to stand behind the Howard government and an absolute mountain of lies on almost any topic they approached.
We have a fixed price as an interim solution which is called a tax - a tax where nobody ever pays any tax at all. Labor always indicated they were moving towards a price on carbon with a preferred ETS, the difference is miniscule, well the difference is that it can by the smallest margin be label as a tax by the guy who believed that a real tax is the best option.