Queensland is the fourth state in four years to dismiss a Labor government. Those states contain 87 per cent of Australia's population. And the federal Labor government lost its majority in the same span. Could there be a message?

Certainly. But it's not the one Tony Abbott was hoping it would be when he said on Friday that the Queensland election would be a referendum on the carbon tax.

In a poll of 400 voters in 20 of the seats that swung from Labor to the conservatives, only 9 per cent of Queenslanders said they were most influenced by federal issues, according to the Liberal Party's pollster of choice, Crosby Textor.

Advertisement: Story continues below In other words, it was a state election fought on state issues. But there is a striking similarity between the shifts against Labor in Queensland on Saturday and in NSW a year earlier. The swing against Labor in Queensland was 16 per cent and in NSW 16.5 per cent.

And the Labor primary vote in Queensland was reduced to 27 per cent; in NSW it was 25 per cent. Is this more than coincidence? Is it a premonition of the next federal result for Labor, which is registering a primary vote of about 30 per cent?

Labor sent Anthony Albanese out yesterday to explain that it was the "it's time" factor that killed Labor in those states. "Queensland Labor has governed for 20 out of the last 22 years. So eventually in our political cycles, it catches up with you - as it did in NSW after 16 consecutive years of government last year."

John Stirton of Nielsen agrees that this is a powerful force: "Once voters get into their heads the idea that it's time for a change - even when they're relatively happy with a government as they were with John Howard's - you're gone."

But a Labor historian and former minister in the Wran government, Rodney Cavalier, thinks Labor is deluding itself if it thinks that this is just a cyclical swing: "The Labor project is at an end. We're watching a prolonged death rattle. There is an absolute crisis of confidence and belief.

''Labor has died from below. There are no Labor branches left in most of the towns of Australia

.''Anna Bligh seemed to concur. In her concession speech she said Queenslanders had emphatically voted for a change of government but also for change in Labor: "Our challenge now is to hear that challenge and to turn our best efforts to rebuilding and renewing our cause and our sense of purpose."

Federal Labor, even with its present dismal polling, does not face a devastation as bad as that in Queensland or NSW. An election tomorrow would give Abbott a victory about as big as that of Howard in 1996, says Stirton: "We're not talking historic defeat federally at the moment. We are talking about defeat in the normal range."

But defeat nevertheless. A senior Labor official said last night: "You need to stand for something. We need to think very hard about that or we are missing the message." This is not about clever marketing or exercises in branding. It's about belief and purpose. That is the message.



Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/opinion/politics/federal-alp-needs-to-stand-for-something-20120325-1vsnu.html#ixzz1qAWq06ay

Quote:

Its the end of radical can-do comm and liberal socialism - the electorate is not tolerating that style of Government - the Rejection of Keating, the rejection of Jeff Kennett, the rejection of John Howard, the rejection of Kristina Keneally, the rejection of Anna Bligh and soon to be the rejection of Juliar - the conviction - can do radical liberal fascist.

Cambell Newman is also of a similar ilk and will soon find his support sliding, her would do well to note the style of conservative Government in NSW and Victoria and not go upsetting anyone of sticking his nose into other peoples business

where it does not belong or tell us how to live our lives.

Armchair_Politician wrote on Mar 26^th, 2012 at 8:58am:

Nobody cares what you think nutjob.

Armchair_Politician wrote on Mar 26^th, 2012 at 9:02am:

Pot calling kettle Tax and welfare cheat?

corporate_whitey wrote on Mar 26^th, 2012 at 9:04am:


I don't cheat on my taxes - my accountant does my tax - and I am not receiving any welfare payments from the government. Idiot.

Armchair_Politician wrote on Mar 26^th, 2012 at 9:06am:

You live off the proceeds of a liberal welfare state - you are a tax cheat and a welfare cheat - oh yes you are...