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So with this statement I am confused.
Your saying that Howard had been in WORSE positions via the polls but had still won.
He, like you and many others including myself,  knew that the difference was the "it's time" factor, a theory that has been proven several times over the past 2 decades.
Yet there is no it's time factor with either Gillard or Labor, yet you still wish to argue that they cannot reverse the polls & possibly win the next election.
I get you wouldn't want that and that's fine but trying to use reasoned analysis of history and polling combined with partisan rhetoric just creates confusion.