While much of the media remains firmly fixated on Monday’s Great  leadership Showdown, most fail to understand that the real drama is actually what happens in the days that follow. Kevin Rudd has virtually no chance of winning and almost everyone understands that, with the possible exception of Rudd himself. His support is significant, but nowhere near what is needed to wrench power away from the woman who knifed him just 18 months ago. If the obvious state of war between Gillard and Rudd was a very messy and public affair, the private opinions of most MPs and ministers was just that - private, or at least not openly declared to the public at large. Kevin has changed all of that. He has called everyone to the battlements. Between jilted ex-leader Simon Crean, the perennially disloyal Wayne Swan and the annoyingly token Nicola Roxon, the hostilities are open and obviously run very deep.

This battle is not like the Keating and Hawke leadership struggles of the early 90s. Keating was a polarising figure both inside and outside the Labor Party. He was strongly disliked by some, but was still grudgingly respected by most for his intelligence and political savvy - if not for his abrasive personality. Kevin Rudd however, is openly hated and despised by most of his parliamentary colleagues, yet his bewildering public popularity - and therefore vote-gathering capacity - keeps him in the hunt for the top job. The problem now comes for those that support him. Some backbenchers in marginal seats will support him because they have nothing to lose.  They will never be on the front-bench and they are political history come the next election anyhow, so they will vote as they wish. But the front-bench is different. While mainly supporting Gillard, there are a growing number who have openly supported Rudd and presumably a few more who do so secretly.
The ALP is not known for being very forgiving of its own members or MPs. Think of the 19 year old Labor candidate in the forthcoming Queensland state elections who has not only been dis-endorsed for expressing a view the party doesn’t like, but actually expelled. Those on the front bench who support Rudd can expect serious ramifications from it. Gillard is not beyond punishing opponents and there will be plenty to vent her spleen at. Disunity will spread like a cancer throughout the party.

Leadership struggles are part and parcel of the Australian political landscape, but it has been a very long time since we have seen one as bitter and as hostile as this one and which has now spread so far in the party. The ALP is now officially divided and the leadership vote will not end it. In fact, open hostilities will now be the standard of behaviour.

And Tony Abbott can just stand by, smile and reap in hundreds of thousands of more votes. His advantage is that it doesn’t matter who  wins on Monday. He has taken on and beaten both of them before and they are equally toxic to their party and the electorate. The next election is his for the taking and possibly at a record majority.

What the Labor Party desperately needs now is a third candidate that can take the bridge of the Titanic, send an SOS and try and save as many as he can before bravely disappearing beneath the icy electoral waters.

But who is left to choose? Those with experience (eg Crean) have marginalised themselves so much as to be of no help and those without experience are never in short supply, but of no real help. Steven Smith could possibly do the job well, but has no real support. And why would he want a suicide mission anyhow? Taking the ALP to a record defeat is not on anyone’s bucket list, yet someone will end up doing it.

But at least in the midst of all the doom and gloom there is always someone who can make us laugh - or at least mock. Rob Oakeshott did all but profess his undying love for Gillard by threatening to vote against the government if she were replaced. But in a way only he could explain (in 20 minutes or more), he said he would deal with Turnball, much to the amusement of the press gallery. Perhaps he doesn’t realise that Turnball is not the Opposition Leader and has little hope of doing so in the foreseeable future.

Monday will be interesting, but Tuesday and onwards is where the real drama happens.

skippy. wrote on Feb 24^th, 2012 at 4:17pm:


Do you dream these idiotic scenarios up or do you get them from conspiracy websites?

it will be drinks all round down at the Liberal pub in Manuka...LOL..

isnt it time someone said... ELECTION........

I dont think it would matter who was in charge of this shipwreck..

it will be interesting to see how they go in the Qld election...

any news on how the greens are viewing all this?

adelcrow wrote on Feb 24^th, 2012 at 4:52pm:





are you going for Kevin adel???

skippy. wrote on Feb 24^th, 2012 at 4:17pm:

If Turnbull likes being in the liberal party, then he will not challenge and take away the full advantage of being a stable party.

skippy. wrote on Feb 24^th, 2012 at 4:40pm:


all of it.

adelcrow wrote on Feb 24^th, 2012 at 4:52pm:


you might as well say Keating will be PM and contest the 2013 electio agianst howard.

progressiveslol wrote on Feb 24^th, 2012 at 5:07pm:


Anyone who has leadership aspirations will steer clear.
The only option maybe Crean looking to clear the air for the next opposition leader by taking the defeat then retiring.