Australian Politics Forum - Predictions for the next NewsPoll

Andrei.Hicks

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Re: Predictions for the next NewsPoll
Reply #30 - Oct 6^th, 2011 at 11:12am

I'll share with you a good quip that Kim Carr stated at a lunch I was at recently -

"Clearly the Australian people don't like the parliament that they have given us that much is true. But it is our belief that it will run a full course and that over time our popularity will return to allow us to achieve possible re-election"

He delivered it dead-pan too so I am wondering if it was indeed the joke my colleague and I took it for.

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Anyone who lives within their means suffers from a lack of imagination - Oscar Wilde

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Doctor Jolly

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Re: Predictions for the next NewsPoll
Reply #31 - Oct 6^th, 2011 at 11:35am

Look at the big issues:

BOATS:
Labor has actually done some handy ground work by diverting the boats issue back on Abbott and his blocking of off-shore processing.
You can see Abbott already backing away from his "stop the boats" mantra. They have at least laid some ground work there, which they can reap at election time.

CARBON TAX:
Will be done and dusted by then. I doubt it will be a big issue. Gillard lied about doing it. Abbott lied about it being the end of the world. Nill all draw, although expect labor to claim back some green voters they lost last time.

NBN:
Notice how this has gone off the radar recently. The liberals know its very popular, and as the roll out continues, so does the momentum slowly build. If they get enough of it installed before the next election, then labor can run a scare campain that those who have missed out will miss out forever if Abbott cans it.

ECONOMY:
All rests on whether Labor can bring the budget back to surplus in the time frame they have stated, and if the mining boom continues at election time. End of the boom would expose the poor state of the rest of the economy and be a death blow to the government.

INTEREST RATES:
Remember them? They used to be the be all and end all of election campains. This is a trump card labor hasnt used yet.

PERSONALITY:
Gillard is dull and Abbott is sleazy. A loose, loose situation nulifying themselves. If either party pulls the trigger for a leadership change they will take the advantage here (except for maybe, Crean).

WASTAGE:
Labor has had a few failed schemes which the libs have exploited, but most can be pushed to the "Rudd era" and the spending stimulus. Libs will have to work hard here, and Labor cant afford any more.

WORK CHOICES:
Abbott will be hoping Reith shuts his big mouth. Labor will be hoping he opens it. Hard to imagine a worse policy politically. A scheme that lasted less than a year (?) under howard could heavily influence the 3 subsequent elections.

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longweekend58

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Re: Predictions for the next NewsPoll
Reply #32 - Oct 6^th, 2011 at 12:22pm

matty wrote on Oct 5^th, 2011 at 7:03pm:

Equitist wrote on Oct 5^th, 2011 at 2:44pm:

Hey, what happened to this fortnight's Newspoll!?

Could it be that Newspoll and the un-Australian editors of the Australian Newspaper didn't like the results...again!?

http://www.newspoll.com.au/cgi-bin/polling/display_poll_data.pl?url_caller=lates...

http://www.newspoll.com.au/images/logo_newspoll.gif

Quote:

Opinion Polls

Search results 1 to 15 of 1513

04/10/11:Quarterly reading of Western Australia voting intention and leaders’ ratings
28/09/11:Quarterly reading of Queensland voting intention and leaders’ ratings
27/09/11:Geographic and demographic analysis - Voting intention and leaders’ ratings
20/09/11:Federal voting intention and leaders’ ratings
06/09/11:Federal voting intention and leaders’ ratings
06/09/11:Best Leader
05/09/11:Asylum Seekers
31/08/11:Bimonthly reading of Victorian voting intention and leaders’ ratings
23/08/11:Federal voting intention and leaders’ ratings
09/08/11:Federal voting intention and leaders’ ratings
25/07/11:Federal voting intention and leaders’ ratings
25/07/11:Carbon Price
18/07/11:Ashgrove Electorate Poll
12/07/11:Federal voting intention and leaders’ ratings
12/07/11:Carbon Price

True Nem. I was wondering why we didn't hear anything yesterday, too.

NewsPOll is COMMISSION (ie paid for) by the australian. maybe they got sick of paying for it every fortnight only to be attacked by teh govt for being bearers of bad news.

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AUSSIE: "Speaking for myself, I could not care less about 298 human beings having their life snuffed out in a nano-second, or what impact that loss has on Members of their family, their parents..."

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longweekend58

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Re: Predictions for the next NewsPoll
Reply #33 - Oct 6^th, 2011 at 12:23pm

skippy. wrote on Oct 6^th, 2011 at 10:52am:

progressiveslol wrote on Oct 6^th, 2011 at 8:39am:

You guys are riding your hopes on a government that can't get much right, to get the compensation right. Good luck with that.

You also have the problem that either people will not be hurt (compensation vs tax price hikes) and not feel any better or worse, and you have people that will get hurt by the tax.

Either way, the people will still be angry at being lied to because they are no better, no worse, or worse off.

Good luck with that.

Labors polls wont change until they dump,Gillard, if they are smart they'll wait until a couple of months out from the next election,then the libs will be stuck with Abbott, and buggered, because Crean or Rudd will kick Abbotts ass, and if Rudd is re elected the punters will think they got their way, I can already smell yet another Labor victory, but this time with a majority. Grin

language skippy. tone it back.

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AUSSIE: "Speaking for myself, I could not care less about 298 human beings having their life snuffed out in a nano-second, or what impact that loss has on Members of their family, their parents..."

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chicken_lipsforme

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Re: Predictions for the next NewsPoll
Reply #34 - Oct 6^th, 2011 at 12:31pm

skippy. wrote on Oct 6^th, 2011 at 10:52am:

progressiveslol wrote on Oct 6^th, 2011 at 8:39am:

You guys are riding your hopes on a government that can't get much right, to get the compensation right. Good luck with that.

You also have the problem that either people will not be hurt (compensation vs tax price hikes) and not feel any better or worse, and you have people that will get hurt by the tax.

Either way, the people will still be angry at being lied to because they are no better, no worse, or worse off.

Good luck with that.

Labors polls wont change until they dump,Gillard, if they are smart they'll wait until a couple of months out from the next election,then the libs will be stuck with Abbott, and buggered, because Crean or Rudd will kick Abbotts ass, and if Rudd is re elected the punters will think they got their way, I can already smell yet another Labor victory, but this time with a majority. Grin

Abbott has handed Rudd his backside back to him once before, and is now about to hand Ms 26% Gillard hers.
Crean has previously shown himself to be unelectable.
And unless Labor finds the packet of 'Competence' in the bathroom cupboard, their slide downwards is inevitable.
What you are smelling though, is absolute fear from Labor.

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"Another boat, another policy failure from the Howard government"

Julia Gillard
Shadow Health Minister
2003.

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Soren

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Re: Predictions for the next NewsPoll
Reply #35 - Oct 12^th, 2011 at 1:11pm

Doctor Jolly wrote on Oct 6^th, 2011 at 11:35am:

Look at the big issues:

NBN:
Notice how this has gone off the radar recently. The liberals know its very popular, and as the roll out continues, so does the momentum slowly build. If they get enough of it installed before the next election, then labor can run a scare campain that those who have missed out will miss out forever if Abbott cans it.

Opposition communications spokesman Malcolm Turnbull said Australia’s NBN was the “telecommunication’s version of Cuba” due to its reliance on the government to provide the necessary infrastructure.

Compared to this government, Greece looks thrifty.

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Equitist

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Re: Predictions for the next NewsPoll
Reply #36 - Oct 12^th, 2011 at 1:21pm

Soren wrote on Oct 12^th, 2011 at 1:11pm:

Doctor Jolly wrote on Oct 6^th, 2011 at 11:35am:

Look at the big issues:

NBN:
Notice how this has gone off the radar recently. The liberals know its very popular, and as the roll out continues, so does the momentum slowly build. If they get enough of it installed before the next election, then labor can run a scare campain that those who have missed out will miss out forever if Abbott cans it.

Opposition communications spokesman Malcolm Turnbull said Australia’s NBN was the “telecommunication’s version of Cuba” due to its reliance on the government to provide the necessary infrastructure.

Compared to this government, Greece looks thrifty.

Yer, and next time you try to locate Greece and Cuba on a world map - I suggest you use a magnifying glass!

FFS, Australia has a small, ubiquitously-spread population and a large land mass - hence it isn't commercially viable for private enterprise to provide national services and infrastructure!

Hence the Howardian Libs fecked-up badly when they designed the poorly-conceived sale of Telstra in the first instance!

Hence the need for the current Govt to act remedy the failure of private enterprise to deliver high quality internet infrastructure to most parts of the country!

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Lamenting the shift in the Australian psyche, away from the egalitarian ideal of the fair-go - and the rise of short-sighted pollies, who worship the 'Growth Fairy' and seek to divide and conquer!

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progressiveslol

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Re: Predictions for the next NewsPoll
Reply #37 - Oct 12^th, 2011 at 2:49pm

skippy. wrote on Oct 6^th, 2011 at 10:52am:

progressiveslol wrote on Oct 6^th, 2011 at 8:39am:

You guys are riding your hopes on a government that can't get much right, to get the compensation right. Good luck with that.

You also have the problem that either people will not be hurt (compensation vs tax price hikes) and not feel any better or worse, and you have people that will get hurt by the tax.

Either way, the people will still be angry at being lied to because they are no better, no worse, or worse off.

Good luck with that.

Labors polls wont change until they dump,Gillard, if they are smart they'll wait until a couple of months out from the next election,then the libs will be stuck with Abbott, and buggered, because Crean or Rudd will kick Abbotts ass, and if Rudd is re elected the punters will think they got their way, I can already smell yet another Labor victory, but this time with a majority. Grin

Well lets look at it logically.

Labor introduced the carbon tax.
Labor lied to us Australians.
Rudd and Crean voted the carbon tax in.

Well that isn't looking good for labor or Rudd/Crean.

Even worse for Rudd. He was kissing Gillard after the carbon tax got in.

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Poll
Question: Next newspoll result
59/41 (the same) 1 (8.3%) 60/40 7 (58.3%) 55/45 2 (16.7%) 50/50 0 (0.0%) 48/52 0 (0.0%) Statistically invalid (for nemesis!) 2 (16.7%) Total votes: 12 « Created by: longweekend58 on: Sep 15^th, 2011 at 1:36pm »