Australian Politics Forum - $4.3B blackhole in NSW budget

perceptions_now

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Re: $4.3B blackhole in NSW budget
Reply #30 - Mar 29^th, 2011 at 11:42am

Please delete wrote on Mar 29^th, 2011 at 11:10am:

"I'll take a proposed 12 billion black hole over a confirmed 4 billion one any day."

Where is it "confirmed"? Once again we have a liberal leader sidestepping the treasury to bring in some mates for their opinion.

One of the basics of Politics, of all Political Party's -
Never call for an inqury, unless you "know" the outcome, before it starts!

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Baronvonrort

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Re: $4.3B blackhole in NSW budget
Reply #31 - Mar 29^th, 2011 at 12:18pm

So after fatty o barrel gets elected he discovers a budget black hole?

Do we get to hear the "Non Core promises" bullshit again?

Why couldnt he have discovered this budget black hole when he was in opposition and used it in his election campaign?

I am sick of this crap from politicians in claiming after the election that there is no money due to previous governments leaving a budget black hole this excuse should not be allowed if the politicians were competant they would know the state of the finances before elections.

I dont see this budget black hole as an excuse after the election to cover the laziness of inept politicians who should research these facts and highlight them while they are in opposition.

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Leftists and the Ayatollahs have a lot in common when it comes to criticism of Islam, they don't tolerate it.

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perceptions_now

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Re: $4.3B blackhole in NSW budget
Reply #32 - Mar 29^th, 2011 at 12:37pm

Labor leaves NSW in '$4bn hole'

On the day he was sworn in as the state's 43rd Premier, Mr O'Farrell learned from NSW Treasury secretary Michael Schur that a surplus of $432 million in 2012-13, which was projected in the half-yearly review in December, has turned into a $405m deficit. The downgrade is the result of lower receipts from the GST and state taxes, and extra capital spending on Sydney's rail network. Mr O'Farrell was also told there was a "slowing" of commonwealth grants to NSW.

Mr O'Farrell said he had immediately stood aside Mr Schur on indefinite leave and announced a comprehensive audit of state finances by Michael Lambert, who was Treasury secretary under former NSW premier Nick Greiner.

"They have cooked the books like never before and treated the public like fools," Mr O'Farrell said of the defeated Labor government. "We all expected the finances to be worse than Labor portrayed

but I am angry at the level of deception and incompetence . . . (it) is simply not acceptable."

According to the figures presented to Mr O'Farrell and Mr Stoner yesterday, the state's budget operating position in the current and next financial year has strengthened from a predicted surplus of $167m in 2010-11 to $365m, and from a predicted surplus of $176m in 2011-12 to $204m.

But this improvement is counterweighed by the $837m turnaround in 2012-13 to a $405m deficit and a $1.32bn worsening in 2013-14. This would be followed by a projected $2.3bn deficit in 2014-15, which was beyond the forward estimates in the half-yearly review. In presenting the former Labor government's election costings during the campaign, Mr Roozendaal revealed a $100m downturn in GST payments in 2011-12.

Link -
http://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/labor-leaves-nsw-in-4bn-hole/st...
====================================
These reviews are part of the changeover of governments and all of the negatives raised in this treasury review reflect the period from July 1st, 2012 to June 30th, 2015.

The largest "correction" being in the 2014-2015 year, which was beyond the forward estimates in the last half-yearly review!

I am not sure where the "slowing of of commonwealth grants to NSW" comment comes from, that would not be surprising in the years ahead.

In any event, Posturings such as these, are also common to changeover periods, it's a "game" played by both major party's!

I would suggest that a slowing/decline in government revenues and changes to Expenditure, Deficits & Debt ratio's, over the next 5-10 years, are not only an increasing probability, but a virtually certainty, for a number of reasons, some related to Political ideology & some just of fact of Economic reality.

That said, broad based Austerity programs, such as the Howard era or the current Brits program & a likely future Republican program in the USA, will serve to exacerbate an Economic slowdown that is already underway & working its way thru the Global Economic system.

Economic change is needed, but it must be very targeted and playing the old "back to the future game" will not succeed this time, as the rules & limitaions of the game have changed!

Good luck & watch the Debt!

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perceptions_now

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Re: $4.3B blackhole in NSW budget
Reply #33 - Mar 29^th, 2011 at 3:33pm

perceptions_now wrote on Mar 29^th, 2011 at 12:37pm:

Labor leaves NSW in '$4bn hole'

On the day he was sworn in as the state's 43rd Premier, Mr O'Farrell learned from NSW Treasury secretary Michael Schur that a surplus of $432 million in 2012-13, which was projected in the half-yearly review in December, has turned into a $405m deficit. The downgrade is the result of lower receipts from the GST and state taxes, and extra capital spending on Sydney's rail network. Mr O'Farrell was also told there was a "slowing" of commonwealth grants to NSW.

Mr O'Farrell said he had immediately stood aside Mr Schur on indefinite leave and announced a comprehensive audit of state finances by Michael Lambert, who was Treasury secretary under former NSW premier Nick Greiner.

"They have cooked the books like never before and treated the public like fools," Mr O'Farrell said of the defeated Labor government. "We all expected the finances to be worse than Labor portrayed

but I am angry at the level of deception and incompetence . . . (it) is simply not acceptable."

According to the figures presented to Mr O'Farrell and Mr Stoner yesterday, the state's budget operating position in the current and next financial year has strengthened from a predicted surplus of $167m in 2010-11 to $365m, and from a predicted surplus of $176m in 2011-12 to $204m.

But this improvement is counterweighed by the $837m turnaround in 2012-13 to a $405m deficit and a $1.32bn worsening in 2013-14. This would be followed by a projected $2.3bn deficit in 2014-15, which was beyond the forward estimates in the half-yearly review. In presenting the former Labor government's election costings during the campaign, Mr Roozendaal revealed a $100m downturn in GST payments in 2011-12.

Link -
http://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/labor-leaves-nsw-in-4bn-hole/st...
====================================
These reviews are part of the changeover of governments and all of the negatives raised in this treasury review reflect the period from July 1st, 2012 to June 30th, 2015.

The largest "correction" being in the 2014-2015 year, which was beyond the forward estimates in the last half-yearly review!

I am not sure where the "slowing of of commonwealth grants to NSW" comment comes from, that would not be surprising in the years ahead.

In any event, Posturings such as these, are also common to changeover periods, it's a "game" played by both major party's!

I would suggest that a slowing/decline in government revenues and changes to Expenditure, Deficits & Debt ratio's, over the next 5-10 years, are not only an increasing probability, but a virtually certainty, for a number of reasons, some related to Political ideology & some just of fact of Economic reality.

That said, broad based Austerity programs, such as the Howard era or the current Brits program & a likely future Republican program in the USA, will serve to exacerbate an Economic slowdown that is already underway & working its way thru the Global Economic system.

Economic change is needed, but it must be very targeted and playing the old "back to the future game" will not succeed this time, as the rules & limitaions of the game have changed!

Good luck & watch the Debt!

Well, the conversation seems to have slowed a little?

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perceptions_now

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Re: $4.3B blackhole in NSW budget
Reply #34 - Mar 29^th, 2011 at 8:09pm

perceptions_now wrote on Mar 29^th, 2011 at 3:33pm:

perceptions_now wrote on Mar 29^th, 2011 at 12:37pm:

Labor leaves NSW in '$4bn hole'

On the day he was sworn in as the state's 43rd Premier, Mr O'Farrell learned from NSW Treasury secretary Michael Schur that a surplus of $432 million in 2012-13, which was projected in the half-yearly review in December, has turned into a $405m deficit. The downgrade is the result of lower receipts from the GST and state taxes, and extra capital spending on Sydney's rail network. Mr O'Farrell was also told there was a "slowing" of commonwealth grants to NSW.

Mr O'Farrell said he had immediately stood aside Mr Schur on indefinite leave and announced a comprehensive audit of state finances by Michael Lambert, who was Treasury secretary under former NSW premier Nick Greiner.

"They have cooked the books like never before and treated the public like fools," Mr O'Farrell said of the defeated Labor government. "We all expected the finances to be worse than Labor portrayed

but I am angry at the level of deception and incompetence . . . (it) is simply not acceptable."

According to the figures presented to Mr O'Farrell and Mr Stoner yesterday, the state's budget operating position in the current and next financial year has strengthened from a predicted surplus of $167m in 2010-11 to $365m, and from a predicted surplus of $176m in 2011-12 to $204m.

But this improvement is counterweighed by the $837m turnaround in 2012-13 to a $405m deficit and a $1.32bn worsening in 2013-14. This would be followed by a projected $2.3bn deficit in 2014-15, which was beyond the forward estimates in the half-yearly review. In presenting the former Labor government's election costings during the campaign, Mr Roozendaal revealed a $100m downturn in GST payments in 2011-12.

Link -
http://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/labor-leaves-nsw-in-4bn-hole/st...
====================================
These reviews are part of the changeover of governments and all of the negatives raised in this treasury review reflect the period from July 1st, 2012 to June 30th, 2015.

The largest "correction" being in the 2014-2015 year, which was beyond the forward estimates in the last half-yearly review!

I am not sure where the "slowing of of commonwealth grants to NSW" comment comes from, that would not be surprising in the years ahead.

In any event, Posturings such as these, are also common to changeover periods, it's a "game" played by both major party's!

I would suggest that a slowing/decline in government revenues and changes to Expenditure, Deficits & Debt ratio's, over the next 5-10 years, are not only an increasing probability, but a virtually certainty, for a number of reasons, some related to Political ideology & some just of fact of Economic reality.

That said, broad based Austerity programs, such as the Howard era or the current Brits program & a likely future Republican program in the USA, will serve to exacerbate an Economic slowdown that is already underway & working its way thru the Global Economic system.

Economic change is needed, but it must be very targeted and playing the old "back to the future game" will not succeed this time, as the rules & limitaions of the game have changed!

Good luck & watch the Debt!

Well, the conversation seems to have slowed a little?

No retorts?

Gee, the case for the big black hole can't have been too strong?

What do you think Maqqa (alias mellie, alias slr, alias ?)???

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Dnarever

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Re: $4.3B blackhole in NSW budget
Reply #35 - Mar 29^th, 2011 at 8:42pm

perceptions_now wrote on Mar 29^th, 2011 at 3:33pm:

On the day he was sworn in as the state's 43rd Premier, Mr O'Farrell learned from NSW Treasury secretary Michael Schur that a surplus of $432 million in 2012-13, which was projected in the half-yearly review in December, has turned into a $405m deficit. The downgrade is the result of lower receipts from the GST and state taxes, and extra capital spending on Sydney's rail network. Mr O'Farrell was also told there was a "slowing" of commonwealth grants to NSW.

Mr O'Farrell said he had immediately stood aside Mr Schur on indefinite leave

O'Farrell copes badly with bad news, Wonder if anyone else will be game to tell him the truth if it's not good news.

Is it a concern that he goes over the top on the first day?

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vegitamite

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Re: $4.3B blackhole in NSW budget
Reply #36 - Mar 30^th, 2011 at 9:36am

A journalist asked Mr O’Farrell “ You said there would be no more spin. Isn’t immediately announcing Labor’s “cooking the books” just more spin?”

He’s only been in office for five minutes and the new State Premier for NSW has launched the traditional salvo of claims of a budget black hole in the State’s coffers.

It’s the oldest trick in the book, although usually most pundits would wait a week or two before starting to lament the perilous state of affairs they have inherited.

“This is a predictable political ploy by an incoming conservative government and relies on counting numbers that don’t even fall within this budget period and are not part of the four-year budget process. They’re basically make-believe numbers that are outside the forward estimates.”
http://guttertrash.wordpress.com/

So, I wonder what O'farrells answer to the journalist was ? Can't seem to find that,as yet ! Just Typical ..here we go. Angry

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« Last Edit: Mar 30^th, 2011 at 9:46am by N/A »

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Sir lastnail Gold Member Offline Australian Politics Posts: 30923 Gender:	Re: $4.3B blackhole in NSW budget Reply #37 - Mar 30^th, 2011 at 9:38am Gunna-do this and Gunna-do that but not Gunna-do any of it now because it's all Labor's fault LOL
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buzzanddidj

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Re: $4.3B blackhole in NSW budget
Reply #38 - Mar 30^th, 2011 at 3:19pm

Black hole will soon become pothole

Matt Wade
March 30, 2011

THE budget black hole is less alarming than Barry O'Farrell would have voters believe.

The deterioration in the budget outlook will certainly make it more difficult for the new Premier to finance his election promises and deliver budget surpluses. But when you compare the $4.5 billion black hole between now and mid-2015, with what O'Farrell's government will spend in that period, it looks a bit more like a pothole. That $4.5 billion is less than 2 per cent of the $248 billion that NSW can be expected to spend on its activities over the next four years.

Financial markets were not too fazed by O'Farrell's warning. Market analysts said the new budget figures were unlikely to even cause a review of the state's premium AAA credit rating.

Analysis by Michael Turner, from RBC Capital Markets, suggests the predicted growth in NSW financial liabilities would not be enough to trigger a credit rating review, even if O'Farrell did nothing to plug the budget hole he has found.

More than half the black hole was found in the preliminary, unpublished estimates for the financial year 2014-15. Forecasts that far off ''are inherently unreliable'', Turner said.

If O'Farrell had used conventional government budgeting norms and considered only Treasury's official forward estimate period up to 2013-14, his black hole would have shrunk to $2.1 billion.

The headlines after his budget announcement probably left many voters believing NSW faces a deficit of $4.5 billion. In fact, the black hole is the estimated variation from cumulative budget surpluses projected until 2013-14 added to the unpublished estimated deficit for 2014-15.

The cumulative total of deficits over the new forward estimates comes to just under $1.6 billion.

The figures actually show the O'Farrell government will start off with bigger budget surpluses than forecast last December for this financial year and next.

An extra $226 million is now forecast in those two years.

Nevertheless, NSW voters can expect to hear about the budget black hole for a long time yet. The mother of all black holes - the $10 billion one revealed by Peter Costello when he became federal treasurer in 1996 - was an integral part of the Howard government's political rhetoric for more than a decade. Hansard shows the shadow treasurer, Joe Hockey, was still telling Parliament about the ''Beazley black hole'' in 2008, more than 12 years after it was unearthed.

http://www.smh.com.au/nsw/black-hole-will-soon-become-pothole-20110329-1ceus.htm...

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billy the fish Full Member Offline Australian Politics Posts: 220	Re: $4.3B blackhole in NSW budget Reply #39 - Mar 30^th, 2011 at 4:33pm I think its undignified for a incoming state governor to expose his black hole to the public
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