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It's getting warmer??? (Read 15596 times)
perceptions_now
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Re: It's getting warmer???
Reply #60 - Dec 18th, 2010 at 3:26pm
 
gizmo_2655 wrote on Dec 18th, 2010 at 2:55pm:
freediver wrote on Dec 18th, 2010 at 2:41pm:
gizmo_2655 wrote on Dec 18th, 2010 at 1:13pm:
buzzanddidj wrote on Dec 17th, 2010 at 1:56pm:
gizmo_2655 wrote on Dec 17th, 2010 at 11:59am:
buzzanddidj wrote on Dec 17th, 2010 at 8:56am:
gizmo_2655 wrote on Dec 17th, 2010 at 8:46am:
buzzanddidj wrote on Dec 17th, 2010 at 7:41am:
Last Decade Was Warmest on Record, 2009 One of Warmest Years, NASA Research Finds
Jan. 22, 2010

A new analysis of global surface temperatures by NASA scientists finds the past year was tied for the second warmest since 1880. In the Southern Hemisphere, 2009 was the warmest year on record.

Although 2008 was the coolest year of the decade because of a strong La Nina that cooled the tropical Pacific Ocean, 2009 saw a return to a near-record global temperatures as the La Nina diminished, according to the new analysis by NASA's Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) in New York. The past year was a small fraction of a degree cooler than 2005, the warmest on record, putting 2009 in a virtual tie with a cluster of other years --1998, 2002, 2003, 2006, and 2007 -- for the second warmest on record.

"There's always interest in the annual temperature numbers and a given year's ranking, but the ranking often misses the point," said James Hansen, GISS director. "There's substantial year-to-year variability of global temperature caused by the tropical El Nino-La Nina cycle. When we average temperature over five or ten years to minimize that variability, we find global warming is continuing unabated."

http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2010/01/100121170717.htm



Australia bakes through warmest decade on record
Jan 5, 2010

The Bureau of Meteorology says figures showing Australia has experienced its hottest decade since records began in 1910 are clear evidence of climate change.

The Bureau's annual report has found the average temperature over the past 10 years was 0.48 degrees Celsius above average.

Climatologist David Jones says each decade since the 1940s has been warmer than the previous one.

And he has warned that this year is set to be even hotter, with temperatures likely to be between 0.5 and 1 degrees above average.

"There's no doubt about global warming, the planet's been warming now for most of the last century," he said.

"Occasionally it takes a breather, during La Nina events for example.


"But we're getting these increasingly warm temperatures - not just for Australia but globally - and climate change, global warming is clearly continuing.


http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2010/01/05/2785653.htm




Yes, and the proof that man is responsible is??????

   



Science RARELY offers conclusive "proof" on ANYTHING - but more on liklihood and probability

In THIS case - the tie in with INCREASED average tempratures EVERY decade, coinciding with the industrial revolution and increased carbon emissions in the atmosphere

Did we wait for conclusive "proof" of the connection between lung cancer and smoking before medical experts discouraged it ?

Why take the risk ?

On EITHER count



And the 'other' tie in is the INCREASED average temperatures EVERY decade, coinciding with the end of an interglacial cool period and a return to the temperatures that existed before the cool period..


See that fits the facts just as well, doesn't it....






So, I'll give you 50/50 - as a hypothetical


Do we sit back and do NOTHING - just in case it isn't a problem ...

Or do we ACT, in case it is ?



How about giving me 10/80???? 10% man, 80% natural...

And it depends on HOW we act......
Replace fossil fuels with other power sources ( solar, wind etc, backed up by nuclear for reliabilty)...Fine by me

Tax the sh1t out of everyone and spend NONE of the money on R&D....NO


Gizmo, in order to deal with this problem effectively, one must understand both the economics and the science. Denying the effectiveness of price signals in altering consumer behaviour is no less silly than proclaiming 'frost this morning, therefor no global warming'.

Your apporach would be worse for both the environment and the economy. You are right that it does matter how we act, then you get it all wrong.


FD, do you seriously believe that a 'tax grab', which will increase the prices of consumer goods and services, and sending the money raised overseas to 3rd world countries will have anything more than a microscopic effect on the environment??

If the Government(s) simply add  $X amount  (call it $20) to the production cost of a megawatt of electricity, do you think that will 'cause' the power company to do anything other than pass that $20 along to their customers???

Where is the incentive for them to spend $100 million dollars to research, design and build a new, 'green' generator station??

Tax breaks
, or co-funding would work far better

Remember the 'Flys and Honey' analogy...


I would go with legislated annual GHG cuts, with Tax Carrots & Loadings!
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gizmo_2655
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Re: It's getting warmer???
Reply #61 - Dec 18th, 2010 at 3:36pm
 
Yes PN, that's what I'm saying.

To get companies to change to 'clean' energy....GIVE them something, instead of punishing them...it works far better..and is only a problem if you have your heart set on cashing in...

For example, for every 50 Gigawatts a power company produces with 'clean' power, you reduce their company tax rate by 2% for that year...up to say 40%...

Or for every 50 tonnes of Co2 they 'save', you do the same thing..
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"I just get sick of people who place a label on someone else with their own definition.

It's similar to a strawman fallacy"
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perceptions_now
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Re: It's getting warmer???
Reply #62 - Dec 18th, 2010 at 4:04pm
 
gizmo_2655 wrote on Dec 18th, 2010 at 3:36pm:
Yes PN, that's what I'm saying.

To get companies to change to 'clean' energy....GIVE them something, instead of punishing them...it works far better..and is only a problem if you have your heart set on cashing in...


Legislated annual GHG cuts, with Tax Carrots & Loadings has been my position since an ETS was first mooted.

The ETS is much like a government tax on Petrol, governments say it is to change public habits, but the real purpose is to collect tax, it has had no substantial effect to lower our Petrol consumption!

That said, change must start!!!

We have had these discussions before, but in essence we (humans) are impacting the Environment (Climate) and that doesn't mean 80% or 50% etc, all it takes is a minor push, particularly over time, to invoke substantial tipping points, much like the "butterfly effect".

Also, as previous mentioned, we take insurance against low probability, high impact risks and whilst Climat Change is much more than a low risk, all we do is bicker, which means nothing is done to mitigate the risks!


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muso
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Re: It's getting warmer???
Reply #63 - Dec 18th, 2010 at 4:42pm
 
perceptions_now wrote on Dec 18th, 2010 at 4:04pm:
gizmo_2655 wrote on Dec 18th, 2010 at 3:36pm:
Yes PN, that's what I'm saying.

To get companies to change to 'clean' energy....GIVE them something, instead of punishing them...it works far better..and is only a problem if you have your heart set on cashing in...


Legislated annual GHG cuts, with Tax Carrots & Loadings has been my position since an ETS was first mooted.

The ETS is much like a government tax on Petrol, governments say it is to change public habits, but the real purpose is to collect tax, it has had no substantial effect to lower our Petrol consumption!

That said, change must start!!!

We have had these discussions before, but in essence we (humans) are impacting the Environment (Climate) and that doesn't mean 80% or 50% etc, all it takes is a minor push, particularly over time, to invoke substantial tipping points, much like the "butterfly effect".

Also, as previous mentioned, we take insurance against low probability, high impact risks and whilst Climat Change is much more than a low risk, all we do is bicker, which means nothing is done to mitigate the risks!


Of course there is the REC scheme that currently does exactly  that. I'd be in favour of expanding that scheme.
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Re: It's getting warmer???
Reply #64 - Dec 18th, 2010 at 4:46pm
 
Bobby. wrote on Dec 18th, 2010 at 11:20am:
Has anyone read what I wrote?

Bobby.
Quote:
Yes - it's very cold in Europe right now - record low temperatures.

Has anyone heard that one of the consequences of global warming
is that the Gulf Stream would stop & plunge Europe into an ice age?

Sounds like the cold snap is further evidence of global warming!



Well, it could be. We have to be very careful about saying things like that, because it's a short term phenomenon, and secondly, it's not actually a cold snap. The extra snow is evidence of warmer winter temperatures. If it's too cold, you don't get snow.

As far as the Gulf Stream mechanism, it's too early to state that with any degree of certainty, but in principle, it the kind of effect that can happen.
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gizmo_2655
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Re: It's getting warmer???
Reply #65 - Dec 18th, 2010 at 4:55pm
 
muso wrote on Dec 18th, 2010 at 4:46pm:
Bobby. wrote on Dec 18th, 2010 at 11:20am:
Has anyone read what I wrote?

Bobby.
Quote:
Yes - it's very cold in Europe right now - record low temperatures.

Has anyone heard that one of the consequences of global warming
is that the Gulf Stream would stop & plunge Europe into an ice age?

Sounds like the cold snap is further evidence of global warming!



Well, it could be. We have to be very careful about saying things like that, because it's a short term phenomenon, and secondly, it's not actually a cold snap. The extra snow is evidence of warmer winter temperatures. If it's too cold, you don't get snow.
As far as the Gulf Stream mechanism, it's too early to state that with any degree of certainty, but in principle, it the kind of effect that can happen.


That applies HERE in Australia, I'm not sure what the 'normal' winter temps are in Europe.

In the Australian High Country, temperatures below -5c or -6c are too cold to snow,but Australia is somewhat drier the Europe...
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"I just get sick of people who place a label on someone else with their own definition.

It's similar to a strawman fallacy"
Bobbythebat
 
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muso
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Re: It's getting warmer???
Reply #66 - Dec 18th, 2010 at 5:01pm
 
gizmo_2655 wrote on Dec 18th, 2010 at 4:55pm:
muso wrote on Dec 18th, 2010 at 4:46pm:
Bobby. wrote on Dec 18th, 2010 at 11:20am:
Has anyone read what I wrote?

Bobby.
Quote:
Yes - it's very cold in Europe right now - record low temperatures.

Has anyone heard that one of the consequences of global warming
is that the Gulf Stream would stop & plunge Europe into an ice age?

Sounds like the cold snap is further evidence of global warming!



Well, it could be. We have to be very careful about saying things like that, because it's a short term phenomenon, and secondly, it's not actually a cold snap. The extra snow is evidence of warmer winter temperatures. If it's too cold, you don't get snow.
As far as the Gulf Stream mechanism, it's too early to state that with any degree of certainty, but in principle, it the kind of effect that can happen.


That applies HERE in Australia, I'm not sure what the 'normal' winter temps are in Europe.

In the Australian High Country, temperatures below -5c or -6c are too cold to snow,but Australia is somewhat drier the Europe...


It applies everywhere, Gizmo. I have spent a fair bit of time in Europe and the States. I have relatives in the UK.
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Miss Anne Dryst
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Re: It's getting warmer???
Reply #67 - Dec 18th, 2010 at 5:05pm
 
The_Barnacle wrote on Dec 18th, 2010 at 10:36am:
Miss Anne Dryst wrote on Dec 18th, 2010 at 10:00am:
Are humans in the driver's seat? Can you show what they have caused then?

And with all of us exhaling CO2 what would you suggest we humans do to stop exhaling that gas.

And it hasn't been proven that the level of tehse gases has increased nor that the planet is warming.
So how can you prove a connection when the dots don't exist?
Or are we just meant to assume that these dots exist?


I've explained all this before so I suspect I'm wasting my time but here goes.

It has been proven that CO2 is increasing by measurements taken at Mauna Lao.

It has been proven that the earth is warming by measurements taken by NASA and the photographic evidence of glaciers retreating.

Humans exhaling CO2, volcanoes, termite mounds etc are all part of the natural carbon cycle which keeps the earth at a livable temperature. It is unnatural emissions of CO2 such as burning fossil fuels and deforestation which causes an increase in temperature



No, you haven't proved anything at all.
All you've posted is your belief.
Well not everyone believes in Scientology either.

However if you can prove global warming rather than just 'please believe me'pleas then you may get somewhere.
Oh and yes humans exhale CO2 so guess we have to all stop exhaling else that CO2 is causing your global warming, that's if you can prove it.
Otherwise prove that the human exhalation of CO2 isn't then!
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Bobby.
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Re: It's getting warmer???
Reply #68 - Dec 18th, 2010 at 5:09pm
 
I want to know if the Gulf Stream has stopped due to global warming.
If so -  Europe will be heading towards a mini ice age.

The Gulf stream may be a form of negative feedback which controls the
average temperature of the earth ie - the temperature goes up so
the gulf stream switches off & cools the northern hemisphere -
thus moderating the average temperature.
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gizmo_2655
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Re: It's getting warmer???
Reply #69 - Dec 18th, 2010 at 5:15pm
 
muso wrote on Dec 18th, 2010 at 5:01pm:
gizmo_2655 wrote on Dec 18th, 2010 at 4:55pm:
muso wrote on Dec 18th, 2010 at 4:46pm:
Bobby. wrote on Dec 18th, 2010 at 11:20am:
Has anyone read what I wrote?

Bobby.
Quote:
Yes - it's very cold in Europe right now - record low temperatures.

Has anyone heard that one of the consequences of global warming
is that the Gulf Stream would stop & plunge Europe into an ice age?

Sounds like the cold snap is further evidence of global warming!



Well, it could be. We have to be very careful about saying things like that, because it's a short term phenomenon, and secondly, it's not actually a cold snap. The extra snow is evidence of warmer winter temperatures. If it's too cold, you don't get snow.
As far as the Gulf Stream mechanism, it's too early to state that with any degree of certainty, but in principle, it the kind of effect that can happen.


That applies HERE in Australia, I'm not sure what the 'normal' winter temps are in Europe.

In the Australian High Country, temperatures below -5c or -6c are too cold to snow,but Australia is somewhat drier the Europe...


It applies everywhere, Gizmo. I have spent a fair bit of time in Europe and the States. I have relatives in the UK.


Yeah, but what is the 'normal' winter temps for Europe???
Up near Mt Selwyn for example, it doesn't snow at -10 but it does at -6...

So in Europe, does the same apply?, if it's -6c, it snows, but if it's -9 it doesn't? and what is the normal, pre-agw temps in winter???
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"I just get sick of people who place a label on someone else with their own definition.

It's similar to a strawman fallacy"
Bobbythebat
 
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muso
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Re: It's getting warmer???
Reply #70 - Dec 18th, 2010 at 5:17pm
 
Bobby. wrote on Dec 18th, 2010 at 5:09pm:
I want to know if the Gulf Stream has stopped due to global warming.
If so -  Europe will be heading towards a mini ice age.

The Gulf stream may be a form of negative feedback which controls the
average temperature of the earth ie - the temperature goes up so
the gulf stream switches off & cools the northern hemisphere -
thus moderating the average temperature.


So does everybody, but it's too short a period to say for sure. This has been the third year of severe winters in Europe.

Here is a link to the most current research. Nothing conclusive as yet:

http://acsys.npolar.no/meetings/final/abstracts/metadata_abstracts.php?format=Al...
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muso
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Re: It's getting warmer???
Reply #71 - Dec 18th, 2010 at 5:21pm
 
gizmo_2655 wrote on Dec 18th, 2010 at 5:15pm:
Yeah, but what is the 'normal' winter temps for Europe???
Up near Mt Selwyn for example, it doesn't snow at -10 but it does at -6...

So in Europe, does the same apply?, if it's -6c, it snows, but if it's -9 it doesn't? and what is the normal, pre-agw temps in winter???


It depends where you are in Europe. As I've said time and time again, we can't say anything conclusive about the severe winters in Europe yet. Anybody who does so, stands to get major omelette on his face.
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gizmo_2655
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Re: It's getting warmer???
Reply #72 - Dec 18th, 2010 at 5:29pm
 
muso wrote on Dec 18th, 2010 at 5:21pm:
gizmo_2655 wrote on Dec 18th, 2010 at 5:15pm:
Yeah, but what is the 'normal' winter temps for Europe???
Up near Mt Selwyn for example, it doesn't snow at -10 but it does at -6...

So in Europe, does the same apply?, if it's -6c, it snows, but if it's -9 it doesn't? and what is the normal, pre-agw temps in winter???


It depends where you are in Europe. As I've said time and time again, we can't say anything conclusive about the severe winters in Europe yet. Anybody who does so, stands to get major omelette on his face.


So , anyone who says that ACC is causing the current winters in Europe will get a "major omelette on his face"??
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"I just get sick of people who place a label on someone else with their own definition.

It's similar to a strawman fallacy"
Bobbythebat
 
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Bobby.
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Re: It's getting warmer???
Reply #73 - Dec 18th, 2010 at 5:52pm
 
muso wrote on Dec 18th, 2010 at 5:17pm:
Bobby. wrote on Dec 18th, 2010 at 5:09pm:
I want to know if the Gulf Stream has stopped due to global warming.
If so -  Europe will be heading towards a mini ice age.

The Gulf stream may be a form of negative feedback which controls the
average temperature of the earth ie - the temperature goes up so
the gulf stream switches off & cools the northern hemisphere -
thus moderating the average temperature.


So does everybody, but it's too short a period to say for sure. This has been the third year of severe winters in Europe.

Here is a link to the most current research. Nothing conclusive as yet:

http://acsys.npolar.no/meetings/final/abstracts/metadata_abstracts.php?format=Al...


Thanks Muso.
I thought just a few measurements of temperature in the sea (in the right place)
would confirm it?
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muso
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Re: It's getting warmer???
Reply #74 - Dec 18th, 2010 at 5:58pm
 
gizmo_2655 wrote on Dec 18th, 2010 at 5:29pm:
So , anyone who says that ACC is causing the current winters in Europe will get a "major omelette on his face"??


IMHO - yes. It's too early to say that.
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