Australian Politics Forum - What happened to 2020?

muso

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Re: What happened to 2020?
Reply #60 - Dec 15^th, 2010 at 10:30am

Soren wrote on Dec 15^th, 2010 at 10:02am:

Quote:

Given, of course, that there's sufficient water and sufficient nitrogen and that is what we're seeing here.

Well of course that's what they're seeing here. They're providing it with adequate water and fertiliser, you ....philosopher.

Just so that you understand - I didn't imply that there could be a shortage of water and fertiliser right at this very moment in time.

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muso

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Re: What happened to 2020?
Reply #61 - Dec 15^th, 2010 at 10:43am

Soren wrote on Dec 15^th, 2010 at 10:02am:

Do you think that having more wheat is like jumping off a tall building? Your analogies are consistetly off the wall (!)

My God, was that an analogy I gave? I had no idea. Let me try to make my point abundantly clear:

Life is easy,

as long as you don't get out of bed.

Motoring is safe,

as long as you don't start the engine.

Marijuana will not affect your judgement,

as long as you don't inhale.

Jumping off a building is fun!....

as long as you don't hit the ground.

Crops will produce higher yields in elevated CO2 atmospheres,

as long as you don't heat stress them, deprive them of moisture and deprive them of nutrients.

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Soren

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Re: What happened to 2020?
Reply #62 - Dec 15^th, 2010 at 10:57am

muso wrote on Dec 15^th, 2010 at 10:30am:

Soren wrote on Dec 15^th, 2010 at 10:02am:

Quote:

Given, of course, that there's sufficient water and sufficient nitrogen and that is what we're seeing here.

Well of course that's what they're seeing here. They're providing it with adequate water and fertiliser, you ....philosopher.

Just so that you understand - I didn't imply that there could be a shortage of water and fertiliser right at this very moment in time.

Scientists run computer simulations full of assumptions about of half-undrestood phenomena - boffin says it's all good, they are keepin' it real.
Scientists run a variety of field experiments to show that increased CO2 is actually a GOOD THING for crop yields - boffin gets testy and discovers all the ifs and buts he accidentally misplaced when the computer simultions were discussed.

Roll Eyes

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muso

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Re: What happened to 2020?
Reply #63 - Dec 15^th, 2010 at 11:13am

Soren wrote on Dec 15^th, 2010 at 10:57am:

Scientists run computer simulations full of assumptions about of half-undrestood phenomena - boffin says it's all good, they are keepin' it real. (Is that what they said?)
Scientists run a variety of field experiments to show that increased CO2 is actually a GOOD THING for crop yields - boffin gets testy and discovers all the ifs and buts he accidentally misplaced when the computer simultions were discussed.

Roll Eyes

Those dastardly scientific researchers.

Your philosopher mind games will not work here. In essence, let's substitute Marijuana in your argument and see if it makes sense:

Quote:

Toxicologists run computer simulations full of assumptions about of half-undrestood phenomena - boffin says it's all good, they are keepin' it real.
Toxicologists run a variety of field experiments to show that increased marijuana has no effects on judgement - boffin gets testy and discovers all the ifs and buts he accidentally misplaced (the fact that the subjects didn't inhale) when the computer simultions were discussed.

Sigmund Freud (peering over half moon glasses): Zo tell me Mr Soren, ven vas it zat you first started thinking zat climatologists und agronomy researchers vere ze same? Hmmmmm Ven you vere a childt, did you er... valk into your parents bedroom and catch your mother vith a scientist? hmmmmm ?

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Soren Gold Member Offline Posts: 25654 Gender:	Re: What happened to 2020? Reply #64 - Dec 15^th, 2010 at 2:35pm Yeah, guud wan. Who ya gonna believe? Your East Anglia computer simulation or your lying eyes looking at actual experiments? Well, the computer, of course! It's a peer reviewed computer. And that Freud sketch - unsurprisingly irrelevant to any part of the discussion.
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muso

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Re: What happened to 2020?
Reply #65 - Dec 15^th, 2010 at 3:25pm

Soren wrote on Dec 15^th, 2010 at 2:35pm:

Yeah, guud wan. Who ya gonna believe? Your East Anglia computer simulation or your lying eyes looking at actual experiments? Well, the computer, of course! It's a peer reviewed computer.

And that Freud sketch - unsurprisingly irrelevant to any part of the discussion.

Soren, I don't think you're being deliberately obtuse here, so I'll give you the benefit of the doubt.

The agronomy experiment was looking at one variable - the CO2 content - Ok? The CO2 level approximates what it will be in 2050 based on a particular emission scenario.

It does not give indications of trends in seasonal temperatures or rainfall by 2050. If you are trying to imply that the agronomy experiment was ever designed to do that, then you are sadly deluded.

Now it's true that we could irrigate a greater proportion of our wheat. We already apply fertiliser, so the nutrient levels are less of a concern. The main variable is temperature, and if the average temperature shifts, it implies that the maximum temperatures shifts too. What happens when you get an extended hot period, is that the yields drop enormously. It becomes academic whether you can get increased yields due to the CO2 content or not. It's not an important consideration in the scheme of things.

Here's a link to one effect of heat stress:

http://www.ypct.com.au/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=8047:heat-st...

Quote:

When a high temperature event occurs at the very sensitive stage of development there’s a window of two to three weeks around flowering when the maximum damage will occur.

“The other factor which will affect heat stress is how much water is in the soil profile. If there’s plenty of water in the soil profile the plant can keep its leaves 2 to 4 degrees Celsius lower than the air temperature, but if there’s not enough water in the soil profile the leaves can be up to 4C higher than the air temperature.

Apart from that, you're looking at just one crop in one corner of the globe.

Let me get this straight - Nobody is claiming that absolutely all the effects of global warming will be detrimental. On the balance, they will be, but a few areas of human enterprise will benefit according to the forecasts presented in the last synthesis report, at least on the short to medium term.

The Freud sketch was a comment on your apparent inability to discern the difference between agronomists and atmospheric physicists.

You'll have to be more specific about the East Anglia University simulation. Which one do you mean? You're not harping on about dendrochronology data again are you?

- or do you mean HADCRUT3 ? If you can't specify what you mean, how am I supposed to comment on it?

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« Last Edit: Dec 15^th, 2010 at 3:33pm by muso »

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muso Gold Member Offline Posts: 13151 Gladstone, Queensland Gender:	Re: What happened to 2020? Reply #66 - Dec 16^th, 2010 at 10:11am .. Mozzaok - Will Talbot is a known spambot. Please delete.
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Beertruk New Member Offline Posts: 40 Gender:	Re: What happened to 2020? Reply #67 - Feb 3^rd, 2011 at 8:06pm Im trying to workout why the temperature was hotter in the Middle Ages than it is now...were people burning a lot of coal and oil back then? ...and then there was the Little Ice Age that Napoleon had a wee bit of trouble with in 1812 when he decided to gate crash Russia.
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perceptions_now

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Re: What happened to 2020?
Reply #68 - Feb 3^rd, 2011 at 9:34pm

Beertruk wrote on Feb 3^rd, 2011 at 8:06pm:

Im trying to workout why the temperature was hotter in the Middle Ages than it is now...were people burning a lot of coal and oil back then? ...and then there was the Little Ice Age that Napoleon had a wee bit of trouble with in 1812 when he decided to gate crash Russia.

On what do you base that statetment?

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gizmo_2655

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Re: What happened to 2020?
Reply #69 - Feb 4^th, 2011 at 7:38am

perceptions_now wrote on Feb 3^rd, 2011 at 9:34pm:

Beertruk wrote on Feb 3^rd, 2011 at 8:06pm:

Im trying to workout why the temperature was hotter in the Middle Ages than it is now...were people burning a lot of coal and oil back then? ...and then there was the Little Ice Age that Napoleon had a wee bit of trouble with in 1812 when he decided to gate crash Russia.

On what do you base that statetment?

http://www.newscientist.com/data/images/ns/cms/dn11648/dn11648-2_726.jpg

Perhaps on the 1990 IPCC Report??

Oh well I can't get the picture to copy, so I'll link the page..
http://stevengoddard.wordpress.com/2010/10/25/working-over-the-mwp-and-the-lia/

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It's similar to a strawman fallacy"
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muso Gold Member Offline Posts: 13151 Gladstone, Queensland Gender:	Re: What happened to 2020? Reply #70 - Feb 4^th, 2011 at 8:23am Why would you go back to a report that is at least 20 years out of date? - besides, that graph applied to Western Europe.
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gizmo_2655 Gold Member Offline Australian Politics Posts: 16010 South West NSW Gender:	Re: What happened to 2020? Reply #71 - Feb 4^th, 2011 at 8:37am muso wrote on Feb 4^th, 2011 at 8:23am: Why would you go back to a report that is at least 20 years out of date? - besides, that graph applied to Western Europe. Well wasn't Western Europe where Napoleon was fighting in 1812?? And PN's graph is of the Northern Hemisphere...
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muso

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Re: What happened to 2020?
Reply #72 - Feb 4^th, 2011 at 10:18am

gizmo_2655 wrote on Feb 4^th, 2011 at 8:37am:

muso wrote on Feb 4^th, 2011 at 8:23am:

Why would you go back to a report that is at least 20 years out of date? - besides, that graph applied to Western Europe.

Well wasn't Western Europe where Napoleon was fighting in 1812??

And PN's graph is of the Northern Hemisphere...

I love history too, but let's get back to the subject at hand - that of Global Temperatures. Regional studies, however fascinating they might be, have no real relevance with respect to global temperatures.

Northern Hemisphere temperatures are about 170 times more relevant that Western Europe. You might liike to do the maths. Western Europe is 1,437,000 square kilometres. The surface area of the World is 510,072,000 square kilometers.

Northern Hemisphere temperatures, while not ideal, represent a 50% sample. Western European temperatures represent a 0.3% sample. Not only that, but they are clearly different from broader studies.

Have I made my point?

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« Last Edit: Feb 4^th, 2011 at 10:28am by muso »

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gizmo_2655

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Re: What happened to 2020?
Reply #73 - Feb 4^th, 2011 at 12:38pm

muso wrote on Feb 4^th, 2011 at 10:18am:

gizmo_2655 wrote on Feb 4^th, 2011 at 8:37am:

muso wrote on Feb 4^th, 2011 at 8:23am:

Why would you go back to a report that is at least 20 years out of date? - besides, that graph applied to Western Europe.

Well wasn't Western Europe where Napoleon was fighting in 1812??

And PN's graph is of the Northern Hemisphere...

I love history too, but let's get back to the subject at hand - that of Global Temperatures. Regional studies, however fascinating they might be, have no real relevance with respect to global temperatures.

Northern Hemisphere temperatures are about 170 times more relevant that Western Europe. You might liike to do the maths. Western Europe is 1,437,000 square kilometres. The surface area of the World is 510,072,000 square kilometers.

Northern Hemisphere temperatures, while not ideal, represent a 50% sample. Western European temperatures represent a 0.3% sample. Not only that, but they are clearly different from broader studies.

Have I made my point?

No, because the 'subject at hand' was based on Beertruk's reference to the prolblem Napoleon had with the LIA in1812...
PN's graph was a response to THAT, and my graph/page was in reply to PN....

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"I just get sick of people who place a label on someone else with their own definition.

It's similar to a strawman fallacy"
Bobbythebat

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perceptions_now

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Re: What happened to 2020?
Reply #74 - Feb 4^th, 2011 at 1:55pm

gizmo_2655 wrote on Feb 4^th, 2011 at 12:38pm:

muso wrote on Feb 4^th, 2011 at 10:18am:

gizmo_2655 wrote on Feb 4^th, 2011 at 8:37am:

muso wrote on Feb 4^th, 2011 at 8:23am:

Why would you go back to a report that is at least 20 years out of date? - besides, that graph applied to Western Europe.

Well wasn't Western Europe where Napoleon was fighting in 1812??

And PN's graph is of the Northern Hemisphere...

I love history too, but let's get back to the subject at hand - that of Global Temperatures. Regional studies, however fascinating they might be, have no real relevance with respect to global temperatures.

Northern Hemisphere temperatures are about 170 times more relevant that Western Europe. You might liike to do the maths. Western Europe is 1,437,000 square kilometres. The surface area of the World is 510,072,000 square kilometers.

Northern Hemisphere temperatures, while not ideal, represent a 50% sample. Western European temperatures represent a 0.3% sample. Not only that, but they are clearly different from broader studies.

Have I made my point?

No, because the 'subject at hand' was based on Beertruk's reference to the prolblem Napoleon had with the LIA in1812...
PN's graph was a response to THAT, and my graph/page was in reply to PN....

That is incorrect, my post was in respect of Beertruk's following comment, which I highlighted, "Im trying to workout why the temperature was hotter in the Middle Ages than it is now".

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