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What happened to 2020? (Read 8771 times)
longweekend58
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Re: What happened to 2020?
Reply #45 - Dec 7th, 2010 at 7:23am
 
Itanimulli wrote on Dec 6th, 2010 at 7:23pm:
longweekend58 wrote on Dec 6th, 2010 at 12:26pm:
That only seems to be done when it suits the hysterics. The hockey stick graph is a classic example of that. purports to be 1000 years of temperature history yet gets it totally wrong. No medieval warm period and no mini ice age. both are 'conveniently missing'. Yet it remains in use by the IPCC and other hysterics.


Wasn't the Medieval Warm period just in Europe?


No it was worldwide - just as you would expect.
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AUSSIE: "Speaking for myself, I could not care less about 298 human beings having their life snuffed out in a nano-second, or what impact that loss has on Members of their family, their parents..."
 
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muso
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Re: What happened to 2020?
Reply #46 - Dec 9th, 2010 at 12:51pm
 
The medieval warming period was indeed a local phenomenon - local to the North Atlantic. You seem to have a pretty good inventory of half truths there - some valiantly expressed bold assertions that fizzled out when subjected to scrutiny.

It was caused by a particularly strong North Atlantic Oscillation, a highly localised event according to this paper in 2009:

http://www.newscientist.com/article/dn16892-natural-mechanism-for-medieval-warmi...

Long - was there any scientific basis whatsoever for that utterance, or just the same kind of visceral displacement that   started off this thread?
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« Last Edit: Dec 9th, 2010 at 1:01pm by muso »  

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muso
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Re: What happened to 2020?
Reply #47 - Dec 9th, 2010 at 1:07pm
 
mozzaok wrote on Dec 6th, 2010 at 1:22pm:
Quote:
That is the best I can do, and all lay people always get back to this single point, of whether or not they accept the scientific consensus or not.
I do.  
Moz

Quote:
WHERE ARE THE REAL HARD UNDENIABLE FACTS???
Longy

Obviously you don't.
While you are searching for real, hard, undeniable facts, try and keep an eye on, extremely high probability, as well.
The degree of certainty you demand on this issue surpasses that you require for any other major decision you ever make in your life, and that may turn out to be problematic for you.


When it comes to risk management in Industry, we deal with the kind of risks that result in one fatality per 10 million years or less. We routinely work with such risks, taking appropriate action to control them.

If we allowed near certainties to occur, we'd be shut down pretty quickly. When it comes down to events that will occur on a worldwide, as opposed to local scale, it would be totally irresponsible to discount such risks because the are not "real hard undeniable facts"

However, there are actually facts that are undeniable in all of this. If you read the sticky thread on this board, the laws of physics come very close to being undeniable facts.
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muso
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Re: What happened to 2020?
Reply #48 - Dec 9th, 2010 at 1:43pm
 
longweekend58 wrote on Dec 5th, 2010 at 5:56pm:
and then there is the hockey stick graph - the most ridiculous peice of scientific nonsense ever foisted upon the world as fact. the IPCC believes it and refuses to discredit despite the fact that disproving it is trivial.



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This is a tired old argument based on the misconception that the Medieval Warming period was something other than a local phenomenon. So if the original 1999 data is a peice (sic) of scientific nonsense then does that mean that the other independent studies referenced on this graph are also "scientific nonsense"? (isn't that an oxymoron? What do you mean anyway? scientific or nonsense? It can't be both.  )
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gizmo_2655
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Re: What happened to 2020?
Reply #49 - Dec 9th, 2010 at 1:57pm
 
muso wrote on Dec 9th, 2010 at 1:43pm:
longweekend58 wrote on Dec 5th, 2010 at 5:56pm:
and then there is the hockey stick graph - the most ridiculous peice of scientific nonsense ever foisted upon the world as fact. the IPCC believes it and refuses to discredit despite the fact that disproving it is trivial.




http://www.newscientist.com/data/images/ns/cms/dn11648/dn11648-2_726.jpg

This is a tired old argument based on the misconception that the Medieval Warming period was something other than a local phenomenon. So if the original 1999 data is a peice (sic) of scientific nonsense then does that mean that the other independent studies referenced on this graph are also "scientific nonsense"? (isn't that an oxymoron? What do you mean anyway? scientific or nonsense? It can't be both.  )


The problem muso is that according to the 'Climategate' emails, Mann 'used' Jones' data to create the "Hockey Stick"...and ALL the other lines in the graph post-date both Jones and Mann...So Jones/Mann's data was used as raw material for all the later graphs....
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« Last Edit: Dec 10th, 2010 at 7:54am by muso »  

"I just get sick of people who place a label on someone else with their own definition.

It's similar to a strawman fallacy"
Bobbythebat
 
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Itanimulli
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Re: What happened to 2020?
Reply #50 - Dec 9th, 2010 at 7:47pm
 
muso wrote on Dec 9th, 2010 at 1:43pm:
This is a tired old argument based on the misconception that the Medieval Warming period was something other than a local phenomenon. 


Yes, I thought it was regional.
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muso
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Re: What happened to 2020?
Reply #51 - Dec 10th, 2010 at 8:01am
 
gizmo_2655 wrote on Dec 9th, 2010 at 1:57pm:
The problem muso is that according to the 'Climategate' emails, Mann 'used' Jones' data to create the "Hockey Stick"...and ALL the other lines in the graph post-date both Jones and Mann...So Jones/Mann's data was used as raw material for all the later graphs....


I just fixed up your post to put your comments outside the quote. Just to make it clearer what you're saying. I hope you don't mind.

What you're saying doesn't make sense - even just by looking at the data. Why do you think there is variation between the datasets?

I think you're either guessing or quoting incorrect assertions from another site.

When I get the time, I'll research the proxies used by the different researchers before I reply in detail.
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muso
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Re: What happened to 2020?
Reply #52 - Dec 10th, 2010 at 8:11am
 
Quote:
For example, Mann et al. (1998), Jones et al. 1998 and Crowley and Lowery (2000) reconstructed the NH temperature based on annually recorded proxy data, with Esper et al. (2005) and Bri
a and Melvin (2008) exclusively based on tree-rings. Viau et al. (2006) carried out the reconstruction by focusing on pollen only and Harris and Chapman (2001) drew inference for the past temperature primarily based on borehole. Only a few reconstruc tion applications have tried to integrate data from sources with very di
fferent temporal resolution (e.g., Beltrami et al., 1995; Huang, 2004; Moberg et al., 2005; Haslett et al.,2006).


That quote is from "The Value of Multi-proxy Reconstruction of Past Climate" Bo Li, Douglas W. Nychka and Caspar M. Ammann.

It illustrates that the reconstructions were independent, which makes good sense. Why would you bother to report a study if it was simply based on somebody else's work?

Without jumping to conclusions, where did you get the idea that the data was from the same source?

Gizmo, I know that you are able to follow scientific arguments based on previous posts. I can't say the same for other posters. Surely you must smell a rat by now.  Be honest with yourself.
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gizmo_2655
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Re: What happened to 2020?
Reply #53 - Dec 10th, 2010 at 8:35am
 
muso wrote on Dec 10th, 2010 at 8:01am:
gizmo_2655 wrote on Dec 9th, 2010 at 1:57pm:
The problem muso is that according to the 'Climategate' emails, Mann 'used' Jones' data to create the "Hockey Stick"...and ALL the other lines in the graph post-date both Jones and Mann...So Jones/Mann's data was used as raw material for all the later graphs....


I just fixed up your post to put your comments outside the quote. Just to make it clearer what you're saying. I hope you don't mind. What you're saying doesn't make sense - even just by looking at the data. Why do you think there is variation between the datasets?

I think you're either guessing or quoting incorrect assertions from another site.

When I get the time, I'll research the proxies used by the different researchers before I reply in detail.


Thanks...I didn't realise I'd mucked it up...
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"I just get sick of people who place a label on someone else with their own definition.

It's similar to a strawman fallacy"
Bobbythebat
 
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muso
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Re: What happened to 2020?
Reply #54 - Dec 11th, 2010 at 7:50am
 
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chicken_lipsforme
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Re: What happened to 2020?
Reply #55 - Dec 13th, 2010 at 11:16am
 
gizmo_2655 wrote on Dec 5th, 2010 at 7:45am:
"Now the Pentagon tells Bush: climate
change will destroy us
· Secret report warns of rioting and nuclear war
· Britain will be 'Siberian' in less than 20 years
· Threat to the world is greater than terrorism
Mark Townsend and Paul Harris in New York
The Observ er, Sunday 22 February 2004 01 .33 GMT
l arger | smal l er
Climate change over the next 20 years could result in a global catastrophe costing
millions of lives in wars and natural disasters..
A secret report, suppressed by US defence chiefs and obtained by The Observer, warns
that major European cities will be sunk beneath rising seas as Britain is plunged into a
'Siberian' climate by 2020. Nuclear conflict, mega-droughts, famine and widespread
rioting will erupt across the world."
http://jlmiller.us/articles/Pentagon_climate_The%20Observer.pdf


"Rising sea levels
Tidal gauge data have documented a global mean sea level rise of 10 to 20 cm during the 20th century.4 Approximately 70% of the world’s population live within 100 miles of seacoasts, and nearly 50 million people now live at risk of coastal flooding and displacement by tidal and storm surges.11 Sea levels are anticipated to rise by another 7.6 to 91.4 cm by 2020 due to a combination of polar ice cap and glacial meltdown, increased precipitation, coastal land erosion and subsidence, and thermal expansion form rising seawater temperatures.9,12,13 A 100 cm (1 m) rise in sea levels would flood 34% of Bangladesh, the Marshall Islands, the Florida Keys, and many other islands and coastal areas.3,4 If the entire Western Antarctic ice sheet were to melt, sea levels would rise by another 6.1 m.11 Flooding is now the most common type of natural disaster worldwide, and flash flooding, usually associated with tropical storms and hurricanes, is among the leading causes of weather-related deaths in the United States, along with heat wave-related deaths. As a result of climate changes, more frequently alternating Pacific Ocean surface and subsurface temperature oscillations, as NOAA asserts, or synergistic combinations, hurricanes of category 3 or greater now strike the continental United States approximately every 18 months."

http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/j.1708-8305.2006.00072.x/full

"Climate Change Health Check 2020 Report

Friday, 04 April 2008 11:12

The effects of climate change will not only be harmful to the health of the planet-- they will impact the health of humans as well.

Climate change dramatically disrupts some of life’s basic essential requirements for health: water, air and food.
By 2020, it is anticipated that increasing climate change will have greater impacts on the health of humans here in Australia and globally.

In 2020, it is likely that Australian doctors and other health professionals will be seeing patients with a diverse range of climate change-related illnesses, from heat stress and other heat-related illness events (affecting the heart, blood vessels and lungs) to trauma from extreme weather events such as storms and heavy rains.  

It is anticipated that there will be changes in airborne pollutants leading to increased respiratory problems, including asthma. The production of pollens, moulds and fungi, all of which cause allergic symptoms, may increase due to rising temperatures.

In those areas affected by long-term drought and other natural disasters, it is likely that patients will experience distress and more mental illness such as depression and post traumatic stress disorders.  These conditions are also expected to rise in patients who have survived severe weather events.

Diseases such as gastroenteritis and diarrhea are predicted to rise due to contaminated food and water.  One study showed that for every degree of increase in temperature the rate of hospitalisation of children with diarrhoea increased by 8 per cent. A changing climate will also affect the distribution of mosquito-related diseases such as Dengue fever and Ross River virus.  Previously, in Australia these diseases had been restricted to areas north of Broome, Katherine and Cairns, but could spread as far south as New South Wales depending on temperature rise."

http://www.climateinstitute.org.au/our-publications/reports/289-climate-change-health-check-2020-report





They forgot to mention that Godzilla will thaw out from his secret island cave in the Northern Pacific ocean, and romperstomp Tokyo again.
God I love science fiction.
It's entertaining right up until the point where the left wing dribblers try to convince you that the claims are now a 'fact'.
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"Another boat, another policy failure from the Howard government"

Julia Gillard
Shadow Health Minister
2003.
 
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muso
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Re: What happened to 2020?
Reply #56 - Dec 15th, 2010 at 8:39am
 
chicken_lipsforme wrote on Dec 13th, 2010 at 11:16am:
They forgot to mention that Godzilla will thaw out from his secret island cave in the Northern Pacific ocean, and romperstomp Tokyo again.
God I love science fiction.
It's entertaining right up until the point where the left wing dribblers try to convince you that the claims are now a 'fact'.


How do you read "Left Wing dribblers" from "Pentagon" and "Bush"?
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Soren
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Re: What happened to 2020?
Reply #57 - Dec 15th, 2010 at 9:13am
 
mozzaok wrote on Dec 6th, 2010 at 1:22pm:
The degree of certainty you demand on this issue surpasses that you require for any other major decision you ever make in your life, and that may turn out to be problematic for you.



Well, here's a high degree of certainty, based on scientific experiments - more CO2 IS A GOOD THING. ANd it comes from that rabid right wing Big Coal mouth piece, Your ABC:

"CHRIS CLARKE: So at the Victorian Department of Primary Industry they're running experiments designed to calculate exactly what higher CO2 levels will do to wheat.

GLENN FITZGERALD: As it warms then of course it becomes gas and it then floats through the series of valves and regulators through the pipe and underground.

CHRIS CLARKE: In this experiment they're trying to create conditions as they might be decades from now. So through this process and then pumped out to the trial site?

GLENN FITZGERALD: Yes, exactly, all underground.

CHRIS CLARKE: Out in the paddock you can get a better feel for it. A series of pipes pour extra carbon dioxide over a trial plot of wheat. You can hear and feel the gas coming out.

So how much are you putting over this area?

GLENN FITZGERALD: In the centre of the ring there is a little sensor, a little cup that maintains that centre concentration at 550 parts per million which is the concentration we expect in the atmosphere over the whole planet in the year 2050.

CHRIS CLARKE: The experiment's in its third year.

GLENN FITZGERALD: CO2 is called a fertiliser, it's a CO2 fertilisation effect which means that carbon dioxide is a food source for plants if you will, that's the carbon that goes into the bulk of the biomass of the plant.

So raising levels of CO2 actually increases that growth, increases the biomass and in agriculture, increases the yield.

Given, of course, that there's sufficient water and sufficient nitrogen and that is what we're seeing here. We have a number of different varieties in this trial and we're seeing overall on average 20 per cent yield increase due to elevated CO2.

http://www.abc.net.au/landline/content/2010/s2851825.htm

Do your bit for the starving third world - say NO to green energy!

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muso
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Re: What happened to 2020?
Reply #58 - Dec 15th, 2010 at 9:26am
 
Did you read the rest of the transcript though?

Quote:
So raising levels of CO2 actually increases that growth, increases the biomass and in agriculture, increases the yield.

Given, of course, that there's sufficient water and sufficient nitrogen and that is what we're seeing here. We have a number of different varieties in this trial and we're seeing overall on average 20 per cent yield increase due to elevated CO2.


That's a big "given".  Overall Australia shouldn't be that badly off because we are already better organised for drought compared to the rest of the world (except maybe Israel).

Jumping off a building has wonderful therapeutic effects. It takes the weight off your feet and gives you a welcome escape from gravity, as long as you don't hit the ground.
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« Last Edit: Dec 15th, 2010 at 9:48am by muso »  

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Soren
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Re: What happened to 2020?
Reply #59 - Dec 15th, 2010 at 10:02am
 
muso wrote on Dec 15th, 2010 at 9:26am:
Did you read the rest of the transcript though?

Quote:
So raising levels of CO2 actually increases that growth, increases the biomass and in agriculture, increases the yield.

Given, of course, that there's sufficient water and sufficient nitrogen and that is what we're seeing here. We have a number of different varieties in this trial and we're seeing overall on average 20 per cent yield increase due to elevated CO2.


That's a big "given".  Overall Australia shouldn't be that badly off because we are already better organised for drought compared to the rest of the world (except maybe Israel).

Jumping off a building has wonderful therapeutic effects. It takes the weight off your feet and gives you a welcome escape from gravity, as long as you don't hit the ground.



Geez, you ran out of the yellow highlighter just at the strategic point, didn't you? Lemme lend you mine:

Quote:
Given, of course, that there's sufficient water and sufficient nitrogen and that is what we're seeing here.


Do you think that having more wheat is like jumping off a tall building? Your analogies are consistetly off the wall (!)






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