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What happened to 2020? (Read 8772 times)
mozzaok
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Re: What happened to 2020?
Reply #30 - Dec 6th, 2010 at 12:45pm
 
gizmo_2655 wrote on Dec 6th, 2010 at 12:33pm:
mozzaok wrote on Dec 6th, 2010 at 11:07am:
Denialists can easily score points by using the fact that 1998 was the hottest year ever recorded, and then claim that because we have not surpassed that yet, we are cooling, and they actually do say that.
They choose to ignore that this first decade of the twenty first century goes down as the hottest decade ever recorded, since records began, and that 2010, yes this year, still may take the top spot as the hottest ever, and will certainly be one of the top three.

The fact that we are getting cold weather anomalies in individual regions, is trumpeted as proof that global warming is a myth, but the fact is that changing weather patterns, including extreme spikes both up, and DOWN, have always been predicted as the outcome from this "GLOBAL" warming trend.


And BOTH extremes of weather are also perfectly viable under NON-manmade climate change....

It's NOT 'global warming' that is considered a 'myth'.....IT'S 'manmade' global warming that's bogus...


Yes Gizmo, that is a fair point, we have often before seen weather anomalies, but the current warming trend, and the rate of change, is accepted as being influenced by our emissions by scientists, and I accept their interpretation of the data, over that being proffered by the skeptics.
That is the best I can do, and all lay people always get back to this single point, of whether or not they accept the scientific consensus or not.
I do.
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OOPS!!! My Karma, ran over your Dogma!
 
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longweekend58
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Re: What happened to 2020?
Reply #31 - Dec 6th, 2010 at 12:48pm
 
gizmo_2655 wrote on Dec 6th, 2010 at 12:33pm:
mozzaok wrote on Dec 6th, 2010 at 11:07am:
Denialists can easily score points by using the fact that 1998 was the hottest year ever recorded, and then claim that because we have not surpassed that yet, we are cooling, and they actually do say that.
They choose to ignore that this first decade of the twenty first century goes down as the hottest decade ever recorded, since records began, and that 2010, yes this year, still may take the top spot as the hottest ever, and will certainly be one of the top three.

The fact that we are getting cold weather anomalies in individual regions, is trumpeted as proof that global warming is a myth, but the fact is that changing weather patterns, including extreme spikes both up, and DOWN, have always been predicted as the outcome from this "GLOBAL" warming trend.


And BOTH extremes of weather are also perfectly viable under NON-manmade climate change....

It's NOT 'global warming' that is considered a 'myth'.....IT'S 'manmade' global warming that's bogus...


exactly, gizmo! it seems there is this human need to panic about something on a global scale. people arent happy unless there is something to by hysterical about.
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AUSSIE: "Speaking for myself, I could not care less about 298 human beings having their life snuffed out in a nano-second, or what impact that loss has on Members of their family, their parents..."
 
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longweekend58
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Re: What happened to 2020?
Reply #32 - Dec 6th, 2010 at 1:03pm
 
mozzaok wrote on Dec 6th, 2010 at 12:45pm:
gizmo_2655 wrote on Dec 6th, 2010 at 12:33pm:
mozzaok wrote on Dec 6th, 2010 at 11:07am:
Denialists can easily score points by using the fact that 1998 was the hottest year ever recorded, and then claim that because we have not surpassed that yet, we are cooling, and they actually do say that.
They choose to ignore that this first decade of the twenty first century goes down as the hottest decade ever recorded, since records began, and that 2010, yes this year, still may take the top spot as the hottest ever, and will certainly be one of the top three.

The fact that we are getting cold weather anomalies in individual regions, is trumpeted as proof that global warming is a myth, but the fact is that changing weather patterns, including extreme spikes both up, and DOWN, have always been predicted as the outcome from this "GLOBAL" warming trend.


And BOTH extremes of weather are also perfectly viable under NON-manmade climate change....

It's NOT 'global warming' that is considered a 'myth'.....IT'S 'manmade' global warming that's bogus...


Yes Gizmo, that is a fair point, we have often before seen weather anomalies, but the current warming trend, and the rate of change, is accepted as being influenced by our emissions by scientists, and I accept their interpretation of the data, over that being proffered by the skeptics.
That is the best I can do, and all lay people always get back to this single point, of whether or not they accept the scientific consensus or not.
I do.  


A) it isnt really consensus and there is considerable evidence of contrary opinions being squashed and even denied publication
B) Einstein wrote an article whose major point was that ONE fact overrides 300 contrary opinions. so where is the UNDENIABLE fact of climate events outside the normal range? There arent any.

Most 'scientific opinions' seems to be made by people whose areas of expertise is a long way from climate. the head of the IPCC is a train engineer. Ross Garnaut is an economist. and so it continues.

WHERE ARE THE REAL HARD UNDENIABLE FACTS???
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AUSSIE: "Speaking for myself, I could not care less about 298 human beings having their life snuffed out in a nano-second, or what impact that loss has on Members of their family, their parents..."
 
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mozzaok
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Re: What happened to 2020?
Reply #33 - Dec 6th, 2010 at 1:22pm
 
Quote:
That is the best I can do, and all lay people always get back to this single point, of whether or not they accept the scientific consensus or not.
I do.   
Moz

Quote:
WHERE ARE THE REAL HARD UNDENIABLE FACTS???
Longy

Obviously you don't.
While you are searching for real, hard, undeniable facts, try and keep an eye on, extremely high probability, as well.
The degree of certainty you demand on this issue surpasses that you require for any other major decision you ever make in your life, and that may turn out to be problematic for you.
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OOPS!!! My Karma, ran over your Dogma!
 
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gizmo_2655
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Re: What happened to 2020?
Reply #34 - Dec 6th, 2010 at 1:54pm
 
mozzaok wrote on Dec 6th, 2010 at 12:45pm:
gizmo_2655 wrote on Dec 6th, 2010 at 12:33pm:
mozzaok wrote on Dec 6th, 2010 at 11:07am:
Denialists can easily score points by using the fact that 1998 was the hottest year ever recorded, and then claim that because we have not surpassed that yet, we are cooling, and they actually do say that.
They choose to ignore that this first decade of the twenty first century goes down as the hottest decade ever recorded, since records began, and that 2010, yes this year, still may take the top spot as the hottest ever, and will certainly be one of the top three.

The fact that we are getting cold weather anomalies in individual regions, is trumpeted as proof that global warming is a myth, but the fact is that changing weather patterns, including extreme spikes both up, and DOWN, have always been predicted as the outcome from this "GLOBAL" warming trend.


And BOTH extremes of weather are also perfectly viable under NON-manmade climate change....

It's NOT 'global warming' that is considered a 'myth'.....IT'S 'manmade' global warming that's bogus...


Yes Gizmo, that is a fair point, we have often before seen weather anomalies, but the current warming trend, and the rate of change, is accepted as being influenced by our emissions by scientists, and I accept their interpretation of the data, over that being proffered by the skeptics.
That is the best I can do, and all lay people always get back to this single point, of whether or not they accept the scientific consensus or not.
I do.  


Well I don't...Mostly because I read a wonderful quote somewhere (I'll look) that said you can 'reverse engineer' human scientific achievement simply by looking at what science has declared impossible over the years...

For example, it was widely believed 'in the 1900's' that if a man travelled faster than 50mph, their chest would cave in from the pressure....It was proven wrong.
In the 1920's, it was an accepted scientific 'truth' that if we ever split the atom, it would cause a chain reaction and destroy the Earth..

It was scientifically impossible to break the sound barrier or to leave the atmosphere of Earth, let alone reach the MOON...
We did all of those things..

Science isn't an absolute....it evolves and changes as understanding changes.
Some 'scientific' pronouncements have been incorrect.....NOT through error, just through a lack of knowledge...

As to the 'difference' between historic weather anomolies and the 'current' weather anomolies......Is there anyone on Earth who has personal experience as to what the weather was like around the world, before 1650???
No, there's not....so we can ONLY guess as to what the frequency of storms, odd climate effects and earthquakes was BEFORE the Little Ice Age...

For all WE know. this might happen every 400 years..
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"I just get sick of people who place a label on someone else with their own definition.

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mozzaok
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Re: What happened to 2020?
Reply #35 - Dec 6th, 2010 at 2:24pm
 
You would have a point Gizmo, if all the achievements you spoke of had been caused through the work of a few maverick voices fighting against the establishment, but they weren't, were they?
No, they were achieved through the cooperation, and consensus, of the best and brightest of each generation.
You know what the best and brightest of this generation agree on as well, don't you.
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gizmo_2655
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Re: What happened to 2020?
Reply #36 - Dec 6th, 2010 at 3:02pm
 
mozzaok wrote on Dec 6th, 2010 at 2:24pm:
You would have a point Gizmo, if all the achievements you spoke of had been caused through the work of a few maverick voices fighting against the establishment, but they weren't, were they?
No, they were achieved through the cooperation, and consensus, of the best and brightest of each generation.
You know what the best and brightest of this generation agree on as well, don't you.


Most of those achievements WERE caused by people working against the mainstream..

And where do you get 'a few maverick voices' out of the AGW sceptic camp???
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"I just get sick of people who place a label on someone else with their own definition.

It's similar to a strawman fallacy"
Bobbythebat
 
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mozzaok
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Re: What happened to 2020?
Reply #37 - Dec 6th, 2010 at 3:08pm
 
I thought I was being polite calling them Maverick's, wacko's is what I really think they are. Wink
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gizmo_2655
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Re: What happened to 2020?
Reply #38 - Dec 6th, 2010 at 3:10pm
 
mozzaok wrote on Dec 6th, 2010 at 3:08pm:
I thought I was being polite calling them Maverick's, wacko's is what I really think they are. Wink


Hmmm interesting that there are as many, or perhaps even MORE 'whackos' than 'mainstream' isn't it???
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"I just get sick of people who place a label on someone else with their own definition.

It's similar to a strawman fallacy"
Bobbythebat
 
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mozzaok
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Re: What happened to 2020?
Reply #39 - Dec 6th, 2010 at 3:16pm
 
I was joking gizmo, I know that because the right wing of politics has made it its business to promote denialism, that almost half the population will therefore be somewhat swayed by the propaganda produced by these corporate sponsored "think tanks".
The reality is that every major scientific organisation on the planet however, accepts that anthropogenic climate change is occurring, hence the term maverick, or lone voices if you prefer.
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longweekend58
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Re: What happened to 2020?
Reply #40 - Dec 6th, 2010 at 4:54pm
 
mozzaok wrote on Dec 6th, 2010 at 1:22pm:
Quote:
That is the best I can do, and all lay people always get back to this single point, of whether or not they accept the scientific consensus or not.
I do.  
Moz

Quote:
WHERE ARE THE REAL HARD UNDENIABLE FACTS???
Longy

Obviously you don't.
While you are searching for real, hard, undeniable facts, try and keep an eye on, extremely high probability, as well.
The degree of certainty you demand on this issue surpasses that you require for any other major decision you ever make in your life, and that may turn out to be problematic for you.


For an issue that demands that we reshape our economies and our societies, yes, i DO DEMAND a few undeniable facts, just as you should. What is so wrong about demanding some proof - not just a few computer models, all of which have been shown to be deeply flawed?
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AUSSIE: "Speaking for myself, I could not care less about 298 human beings having their life snuffed out in a nano-second, or what impact that loss has on Members of their family, their parents..."
 
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longweekend58
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Re: What happened to 2020?
Reply #41 - Dec 6th, 2010 at 4:56pm
 
mozzaok wrote on Dec 6th, 2010 at 2:24pm:
You would have a point Gizmo, if all the achievements you spoke of had been caused through the work of a few maverick voices fighting against the establishment, but they weren't, were they?
No, they were achieved through the cooperation, and consensus, of the best and brightest of each generation.
You know what the best and brightest of this generation agree on as well, don't you.


You history of science needs a bit of reworking. Much of scientific advance has been done AGAINST THE FLOW of convneitonal thinking. Consensus has actually rarely acheived anything in scientific circles.
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AUSSIE: "Speaking for myself, I could not care less about 298 human beings having their life snuffed out in a nano-second, or what impact that loss has on Members of their family, their parents..."
 
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longweekend58
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Re: What happened to 2020?
Reply #42 - Dec 6th, 2010 at 5:00pm
 
mozzaok wrote on Dec 6th, 2010 at 3:16pm:
I was joking gizmo, I know that because the right wing of politics has made it its business to promote denialism, that almost half the population will therefore be somewhat swayed by the propaganda produced by these corporate sponsored "think tanks".
The reality is that every major scientific organisation on the planet however, accepts that anthropogenic climate change is occurring, hence the term maverick, or lone voices if you prefer.


You mean the organisations that year after year predict doom and gloom and are demonstrably wrong?  Dont they ever get embarrased by the repeated failures - often massive failures?
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AUSSIE: "Speaking for myself, I could not care less about 298 human beings having their life snuffed out in a nano-second, or what impact that loss has on Members of their family, their parents..."
 
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Itanimulli
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Re: What happened to 2020?
Reply #43 - Dec 6th, 2010 at 7:23pm
 
longweekend58 wrote on Dec 6th, 2010 at 12:26pm:
That only seems to be done when it suits the hysterics. The hockey stick graph is a classic example of that. purports to be 1000 years of temperature history yet gets it totally wrong. No medieval warm period and no mini ice age. both are 'conveniently missing'. Yet it remains in use by the IPCC and other hysterics.


Wasn't the Medieval Warm period just in Europe?
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gizmo_2655
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Re: What happened to 2020?
Reply #44 - Dec 6th, 2010 at 9:36pm
 
Itanimulli wrote on Dec 6th, 2010 at 7:23pm:
longweekend58 wrote on Dec 6th, 2010 at 12:26pm:
That only seems to be done when it suits the hysterics. The hockey stick graph is a classic example of that. purports to be 1000 years of temperature history yet gets it totally wrong. No medieval warm period and no mini ice age. both are 'conveniently missing'. Yet it remains in use by the IPCC and other hysterics.


Wasn't the Medieval Warm period just in Europe?


It's sort of hard to say..
It did cover Europe, the Middle East, Africa, India and Asia....But the lack of written records or exploration of the Southern Hemisphere at the time makes it hard to tell....
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"I just get sick of people who place a label on someone else with their own definition.

It's similar to a strawman fallacy"
Bobbythebat
 
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