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What happened to 2020? (Read 8756 times)
longweekend58
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Re: What happened to 2020?
Reply #15 - Dec 5th, 2010 at 5:11pm
 
muso wrote on Dec 5th, 2010 at 2:48pm:
If you actually have something that backs up your claims, feel free to post it. If your claims can not be substantiated, they are false claims, and there is no point in continuing the thread. It's as simple as that.

I have never banned anybody.



When I see you taking that attitude with Woody (green_wins) then you might get some credibility. I already told you the source and if that is inadequate then you'd better tell EVERYBODY that a confirmed source is necessary for every post. that will end this form overnight.

You can accept opinions contrary to your own or you can act like... this.

grow up. you are virtually proving my point about how the climate hysterics dont accept, tolerate OR PERMIT opinions contrary to their own. IM not actually a climate change sceptic. I am a sceptic of how it is reported and defined. Essentially I beleive there is an agenda to 'panic'. Ive seen it before. as a mod Id expect better from you.
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AUSSIE: "Speaking for myself, I could not care less about 298 human beings having their life snuffed out in a nano-second, or what impact that loss has on Members of their family, their parents..."
 
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muso
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Re: What happened to 2020?
Reply #16 - Dec 5th, 2010 at 5:41pm
 
Isn't MSN a messaging system? Look, I suspect that I know your source. Is it from a certain charity site that assesses risk at  2010 and 2030 for various countries for various criteria, including medical, agriculture, water supplies etc? It's quite an interesting study, but I'm not sure if it's as rigorous as it claims to be.  The year 2030 doesn't have any significance in itself, because it all depends on the extent to which emissions are reduced.

I am a sceptic, but not in the way that the term is misrepresented these days. That's why I submit all claims to meticulous scrutiny.  The IPCC Working Group I papers are very sound science.

I agree that some reporting is sensationalised. I'm interested in your source if you can find it.

For the record, I have taken that attitude with Green_wins, especially on the subject of nuclear power. Deep Greens run around like headless chooks spouting all kinds of nonsense when you mention nuclear power.
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longweekend58
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Re: What happened to 2020?
Reply #17 - Dec 5th, 2010 at 5:48pm
 
muso wrote on Dec 5th, 2010 at 5:41pm:
Isn't MSN a messaging system? Look, I suspect that I know your source. Is it from a certain charity site that assesses risk at  2010 and 2030 for various countries for various criteria, including medical, agriculture, water supplies etc? It's quite an interesting study, but I'm not sure if it's as rigorous as it claims to be.  The year 2030 doesn't have any significance in itself, because it all depends on the extent to which emissions are reduced.

I am a sceptic, but not in the way that the term is misrepresented these days. That's why I submit all claims to meticulous scrutiny.  The IPCC Working Group I papers are very sound science.

I agree that some reporting is sensationalised. I'm interested in your source if you can find it.

For the record, I have taken that attitude with Green_wins, especially on the subject of nuclear power. Deep Greens run around like headless chooks spouting all kinds of nonsense when you mention nuclear power.



ever heard of NINE MSN??????
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AUSSIE: "Speaking for myself, I could not care less about 298 human beings having their life snuffed out in a nano-second, or what impact that loss has on Members of their family, their parents..."
 
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longweekend58
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Re: What happened to 2020?
Reply #18 - Dec 5th, 2010 at 5:56pm
 
Quote:
The IPCC Working Group I papers are very sound science.



How can you say that with a straight face??? the science of the IPCC has come in for amassive hammering this year with MAJOR flaws exposed and the so-called 'peer review' system becoming nothing more than like minds agreeing with each other.

There is nothing 'sound' about the science at all. EVERY SINGLE ONE of the predictions of the hysterics hs failed to eventuate or even look like it.  2007 was the year the arctic ice would disappear. oops! even withthe added pressure of an enormous underwater volcano the ice increased. ditto antartica.  seal level rises??? hmm a few mms in a few locations and nothing else. global temperature rises are at best small and well within the range of the last 100 years and thats even if you beleive the measuring methodologies - which not everyone does.

and then there is the hockey stick graph - the most ridiculous peice of scientific nonsense ever foisted upon the world as fact. the IPCC believes it and refuses to discredit despite the fact that disproving it is trivial.

the science is deeply flawed, the hysteria is embarrassing and by 2025 there will not be a single ACC believer in the world because 25 years of indisputable climates facts will show it to be a 'chicken little' moment driven and encouraged by hysterics.
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AUSSIE: "Speaking for myself, I could not care less about 298 human beings having their life snuffed out in a nano-second, or what impact that loss has on Members of their family, their parents..."
 
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longweekend58
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Re: What happened to 2020?
Reply #19 - Dec 5th, 2010 at 5:57pm
 
muso wrote on Dec 5th, 2010 at 5:41pm:
Isn't MSN a messaging system? Look, I suspect that I know your source. Is it from a certain charity site that assesses risk at  2010 and 2030 for various countries for various criteria, including medical, agriculture, water supplies etc? It's quite an interesting study, but I'm not sure if it's as rigorous as it claims to be.  The year 2030 doesn't have any significance in itself, because it all depends on the extent to which emissions are reduced.

I am a sceptic, but not in the way that the term is misrepresented these days. That's why I submit all claims to meticulous scrutiny.  The IPCC Working Group I papers are very sound science.

I agree that some reporting is sensationalised. I'm interested in your source if you can find it.

For the record, I have taken that attitude with Green_wins, especially on the subject of nuclear power. Deep Greens run around like headless chooks spouting all kinds of nonsense when you mention nuclear power.


the deeper the shade of GReen they get, the dumber and more factually incorrect they get on almost ANY topic requiring science and/or logic.
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AUSSIE: "Speaking for myself, I could not care less about 298 human beings having their life snuffed out in a nano-second, or what impact that loss has on Members of their family, their parents..."
 
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mozzaok
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Re: What happened to 2020?
Reply #20 - Dec 5th, 2010 at 6:44pm
 
So, sea levels are not rising?
Global temperatures are not rising?
We are not losing ice from the Arctic and Antarctic?

It was just a blip that peaked in '98, and now everything is going back to what it was before?

Is it reasonable to hold such views, and still declare that you are not a Global Warming Skeptic[sic]?
(I hate allowing denialists to self describe as skeptics, because it implies a degree of reasoned examination of the facts that they clearly have no right to claim)
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gizmo_2655
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Re: What happened to 2020?
Reply #21 - Dec 5th, 2010 at 9:55pm
 
mozzaok wrote on Dec 5th, 2010 at 6:44pm:
So, sea levels are not rising?
Global temperatures are not rising?
We are not losing ice from the Arctic and Antarctic?

It was just a blip that peaked in '98, and now everything is going back to what it was before?

Is it reasonable to hold such views, and still declare that you are not a Global Warming Skeptic[sic]?
(I hate allowing denialists to self describe as skeptics, because it implies a degree of reasoned examination of the facts that they clearly have no right to claim)



LOL how many islands have drowned so far??

My point is, none of the changes like sea level rise and glacier melts have happened anywhere near as fast as originally predicted...

And I never claimed NOT be a sceptic on the subject of Anthropogenic Global Warming (or anthropogenic climate change)....

Is the world temperature rising??..YES (which is no surprise since we only came out of the Little Ice Age in about 1850 or so)

Is it driven by, or completely caused by HUMAN action.....Unlikely...

Do we have the power to change the rate of warming...NO...

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"I just get sick of people who place a label on someone else with their own definition.

It's similar to a strawman fallacy"
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longweekend58
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Re: What happened to 2020?
Reply #22 - Dec 6th, 2010 at 7:15am
 
mozzaok wrote on Dec 5th, 2010 at 6:44pm:
So, sea levels are not rising?
Global temperatures are not rising?
We are not losing ice from the Arctic and Antarctic?

It was just a blip that peaked in '98, and now everything is going back to what it was before?

Is it reasonable to hold such views, and still declare that you are not a Global Warming Skeptic[sic]?
(I hate allowing denialists to self describe as skeptics, because it implies a degree of reasoned examination of the facts that they clearly have no right to claim)


A) sea levels are NOT rising beyond the few mm that is natural variaton
B) global temperatures are NOT rising beyond the small amount that is natural variation
C) polar ice is actually growing - as it does as part of natural variation

IS THAT clear enough? Climate changes and always has. it is part of the natural variation in the environmet. not ONE since climate event has occured that is atypical of natural variation.
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AUSSIE: "Speaking for myself, I could not care less about 298 human beings having their life snuffed out in a nano-second, or what impact that loss has on Members of their family, their parents..."
 
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mozzaok
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Re: What happened to 2020?
Reply #23 - Dec 6th, 2010 at 9:35am
 
Sea Levels.
Quote:
Current sea level rise is after all not exaggerated, in fact the opposite case is more plausible. Observational data and changing conditions in such places as Greenland suggest if there's a real problem here it's underestimation of future sea level rise. The IPCC synthesis reports offer conservative projections of sea level increase based on assumptions about future behavior of ice sheets and glaciers, leading to estimates of sea level roughly following a linear upward trend mimicking that of recent decades. In point of fact, observed sea level rise is already above IPCC projections and strongly hints at acceleration while at the same time it appears the mass balance of continental ice envisioned by the IPCC is overly optimistic ( Rahmstorf 2010 ).

http://www.skepticalscience.com/sea-level-rise.htm

Temperature Rising
Quote:
For those following the race for warmest year in the satellite tropospheric temperature record (which began in 1979), 2010 is still within striking distance of the record warm year of 1998. Here are the 1998 and 2010 averages for January 1st through October 31:

1998 +0.57
2010 +0.54

http://www.drroyspencer.com/2010/11/oct-2010-uah-global-temperature-update-0-42-...
(note that those figures are from Roy Spencer's site, someone that skeptics love, and are his satellite figures(which now are actually more useful, due to changes to calibration issues that had provided lower temps due to those calibration errors)

Arctic Sea Ice

Quote:
Sea ice extent averaged over October 2010 was the third lowest over the satellite data record at 7.69 million square kilometers (2.97 million square miles). This was 1.60 million square kilometers (618,000 square miles) below the 1979 to 2000 average for October, but 920,000 square kilometers (355,000 square miles) above the record low for the month, which occurred in October 2007.

http://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/

Facts are easy to access, especially if you want to look at data, but if you just want to reference right wing bloggers that scour the world for an odd anomaly to use as their focus to try and pull down the whole scientific argument, built upon the work of many thousands of honest hard working people, then you can do that too, but it will only be accepted by those who do not care about the truth.
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longweekend58
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Re: What happened to 2020?
Reply #24 - Dec 6th, 2010 at 10:51am
 
mozzaok wrote on Dec 6th, 2010 at 9:35am:
Sea Levels.
Quote:
Current sea level rise is after all not exaggerated, in fact the opposite case is more plausible. Observational data and changing conditions in such places as Greenland suggest if there's a real problem here it's underestimation of future sea level rise. The IPCC synthesis reports offer conservative projections of sea level increase based on assumptions about future behavior of ice sheets and glaciers, leading to estimates of sea level roughly following a linear upward trend mimicking that of recent decades. In point of fact, observed sea level rise is already above IPCC projections and strongly hints at acceleration while at the same time it appears the mass balance of continental ice envisioned by the IPCC is overly optimistic ( Rahmstorf 2010 ).

http://www.skepticalscience.com/sea-level-rise.htm

Temperature Rising
Quote:
For those following the race for warmest year in the satellite tropospheric temperature record (which began in 1979), 2010 is still within striking distance of the record warm year of 1998. Here are the 1998 and 2010 averages for January 1st through October 31:

1998 +0.57
2010 +0.54

http://www.drroyspencer.com/2010/11/oct-2010-uah-global-temperature-update-0-42-...
(note that those figures are from Roy Spencer's site, someone that skeptics love, and are his satellite figures(which now are actually more useful, due to changes to calibration issues that had provided lower temps due to those calibration errors)

Arctic Sea Ice

Quote:
Sea ice extent averaged over October 2010 was the third lowest over the satellite data record at 7.69 million square kilometers (2.97 million square miles). This was 1.60 million square kilometers (618,000 square miles) below the 1979 to 2000 average for October, but 920,000 square kilometers (355,000 square miles) above the record low for the month, which occurred in October 2007.

http://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/

Facts are easy to access, especially if you want to look at data, but if you just want to reference right wing bloggers that scour the world for an odd anomaly to use as their focus to try and pull down the whole scientific argument, built upon the work of many thousands of honest hard working people, then you can do that too, but it will only be accepted by those who do not care about the truth.


Now you come to my fav part of this debate - so-called facts. Only last year there was australian media attention on the fact (reported by a US govt agancy) that ice in the antartica had increased. and then you get this report that says i decreased.  we get nasa saying temperatures have dropped then they say they have increased. we get CRU head saying temps havnt risen at all since 1998 and others saying the opposite. So if the experts cant even get their FACTS right, why should we trust them at all? A british govt enquirt was held into the Bureau of Met. over its REPEATED claims that the coming years woudl be hottest on record only to have the COLDEST years in half a century.

my cynicism isnt ideological - it is based on these regular and absurd contradictions.

oh yeah and Venice hasnt sunk either.

so can you point me to a single INDISPUTABLE climate event that is outside the normal range of variation?
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AUSSIE: "Speaking for myself, I could not care less about 298 human beings having their life snuffed out in a nano-second, or what impact that loss has on Members of their family, their parents..."
 
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mozzaok
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Re: What happened to 2020?
Reply #25 - Dec 6th, 2010 at 11:07am
 
Denialists can easily score points by using the fact that 1998 was the hottest year ever recorded, and then claim that because we have not surpassed that yet, we are cooling, and they actually do say that.
They choose to ignore that this first decade of the twenty first century goes down as the hottest decade ever recorded, since records began, and that 2010, yes this year, still may take the top spot as the hottest ever, and will certainly be one of the top three.

The fact that we are getting cold weather anomalies in individual regions, is trumpeted as proof that global warming is a myth, but the fact is that changing weather patterns, including extreme spikes both up, and DOWN, have always been predicted as the outcome from this "GLOBAL" warming trend.
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muso
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Re: What happened to 2020?
Reply #26 - Dec 6th, 2010 at 11:14am
 
I'll split this thread at some stage because we're wandering off topic. I don't have time to participate today, but in general you can't talk about one or two years in isolation. For representative Climate data, you have to take running averages over many years.
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longweekend58
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Re: What happened to 2020?
Reply #27 - Dec 6th, 2010 at 12:24pm
 
mozzaok wrote on Dec 6th, 2010 at 11:07am:
Denialists can easily score points by using the fact that 1998 was the hottest year ever recorded, and then claim that because we have not surpassed that yet, we are cooling, and they actually do say that.
They choose to ignore that this first decade of the twenty first century goes down as the hottest decade ever recorded, since records began, and that 2010, yes this year, still may take the top spot as the hottest ever, and will certainly be one of the top three.

The fact that we are getting cold weather anomalies in individual regions, is trumpeted as proof that global warming is a myth, but the fact is that changing weather patterns, including extreme spikes both up, and DOWN, have always been predicted as the outcome from this "GLOBAL" warming trend.


So is that NO to a single indusputable climate event outside the normal range?
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AUSSIE: "Speaking for myself, I could not care less about 298 human beings having their life snuffed out in a nano-second, or what impact that loss has on Members of their family, their parents..."
 
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longweekend58
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Re: What happened to 2020?
Reply #28 - Dec 6th, 2010 at 12:26pm
 
muso wrote on Dec 6th, 2010 at 11:14am:
I'll split this thread at some stage because we're wandering off topic. I don't have time to participate today, but in general you can't talk about one or two years in isolation. For representative Climate data, you have to take running averages over many years.


That only seems to be done when it suits the hysterics. The hockey stick graph is a classic example of that. purports to be 1000 years of temperature history yet gets it totally wrong. No medieval warm period and no mini ice age. both are 'conveniently missing'. Yet it remains in use by the IPCC and other hysterics.
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AUSSIE: "Speaking for myself, I could not care less about 298 human beings having their life snuffed out in a nano-second, or what impact that loss has on Members of their family, their parents..."
 
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gizmo_2655
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Re: What happened to 2020?
Reply #29 - Dec 6th, 2010 at 12:33pm
 
mozzaok wrote on Dec 6th, 2010 at 11:07am:
Denialists can easily score points by using the fact that 1998 was the hottest year ever recorded, and then claim that because we have not surpassed that yet, we are cooling, and they actually do say that.
They choose to ignore that this first decade of the twenty first century goes down as the hottest decade ever recorded, since records began, and that 2010, yes this year, still may take the top spot as the hottest ever, and will certainly be one of the top three.

The fact that we are getting cold weather anomalies in individual regions, is trumpeted as proof that global warming is a myth, but the fact is that changing weather patterns, including extreme spikes both up, and DOWN, have always been predicted as the outcome from this "GLOBAL" warming trend.


And BOTH extremes of weather are also perfectly viable under NON-manmade climate change....

It's NOT 'global warming' that is considered a 'myth'.....IT'S 'manmade' global warming that's bogus...
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"I just get sick of people who place a label on someone else with their own definition.

It's similar to a strawman fallacy"
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