First to lift rates tipped to be CBA

THE Commonwealth Bank is likely to brave a deluge of negative publicity and lead its rivals in lifting mortgage rates out of step with the Reserve Bank, analysts believe.

Leading industry analysts say the threat of out-of-cycle rate rises is rapidly intensifying now that the federal parliamentary deadlock is resolved and banks no longer face the wrath of politicians battling for popular and peer support.

With the Reserve Bank unlikely to increase the official cash rate until at least November, the banks will look to independently address the impact of the growing funding costs eroding their profit margins, they say.

The analytical teams at global investment banks Credit Suisse and JP Morgan agree CBA is a prime candidate to break from the pack.

In a note to investors, the Credit Suisse team -- led by Jarrod Martin and James Ellis -- said CBA was "the most natural price leader that needs to emerge to allow industry-wide mortgage rate increases".

With the new Federal Government in place, the banks could better assess the "political risks" of an out-of-cycle rate rise, which was likely in the context of growing funding costs, they said.

JP Morgan analyst Scott Manning said CBA "may be positioning for an out-of-cycle rate rise", but that it was too soon to say when rates would go up, and to what degree.

Their comments come after CBA chief Ralph Norris said last month the bank "may well have to" pass on rising costs to customers.

Westpac chief executive Gail Kelly said last month her bank had "no plans" to lift standard variable rates out of step with the Reserve Bank, while analysts say ANZ is under less pressure to lift rates.

ANZ and National Australia Bank, which has pursued a strategy of offering the cheapest home loans among Australian banks, have been building their mortgage books more aggressively than Westpac and CBA this year as they attempt to claw back ground they lost during the global financial crisis.

Mortgage Choice spokeswoman Kristy Sheppard said an increase in mortgage rates by the big banks was "looking like a very strong possibility".

"It really does look like a matter of when rather than if," she said.