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Understanding Global Warming - Where to Start? (Read 2930 times)
aikmann4
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Understanding Global Warming - Where to Start?
Jul 5th, 2010 at 1:14am
 
I've been fairly well convinced of the possibility of climate change for a while now. It has never been a subject I've understood in depth or at all, but now that I'm getting more and more interested it is one that I would like to. So, directed at Muso or anybody else, what would some good materials for beginners be?
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muso
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Re: Understanding Global Warming - Where to Start?
Reply #1 - Jul 5th, 2010 at 9:13am
 
First and foremost, understand that we're talking about effects by greenhouse gases on long wave infrared radiation coming from the Earth. It has very little to do with incoming radiation from the Sun. Do some research on the Greenhouse Effect and tell us why that is the case if you like.  It struck me as amazing that some people were happy to talk about climate change but they didn't grasp that one basic fact.

You could try the sticky thread on this board.

Then there is Stephen Schneider's Site:

http://stephenschneider.stanford.edu/

and Real Climate: (edit - I guess I'd better give you the url)
http://www.realclimate.org/

If you really want to get immersed in the mathematics, there is a climatology textbook online too. Let me know and I'll find it for you. You don't really need to get into that unless you want to understand things like radiative forcing and general circulation modelling in depth.

We've also had many lively discussions on here with people who have been sucked in by the climate astroturfing industry.
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« Last Edit: Jul 5th, 2010 at 9:59am by muso »  

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mozzaok
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Re: Understanding Global Warming - Where to Start?
Reply #2 - Jul 5th, 2010 at 10:38am
 
Ditto the sticky thread here, compiled by muso.
It is a very good way to get to know some of the basic principles at play.
You can also ask muso any specific questions you may have as well, because he either knows the best information available, or he will find it for you, he has helped most of us here to have a far better understanding of the global warming facts, and has also been unbelievably patient in trying to politely explain things to denialists who really do not wish to hear or learn anything new, as they just keep searching for arguments to try and validate their position, sadly.

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aikmann4
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Re: Understanding Global Warming - Where to Start?
Reply #3 - Jul 6th, 2010 at 3:57am
 
Wow, thanks Muso. Do you know any good books for a Global Warming greenhorn such as myself as well? I'm really interested in understanding the fundamental principles that the science is constructed upon (perhaps not as in depth as to comprehend the actual mathematical models), because I want to see if the arguments made by many of the skeptics actually match up with the science, and don't just obfuscate and misrepresent, as is so common with the sciences that I am primarily interested in (evolutionary theory, HBD and psychometrics).

Here are some of the arguments I've heard frequently from skeptics:

1) Urban Heat Island

Something like, the actual measurements of temperatures in various regions are skewed, because urban areas generate heat and the stations used to measure temperatures are often located in urban areas.

2) Positive/Negative feedback

Climate, like most known systems in the Universe, is one characterised by negative feedback. It is stable and temperatures will not spiral out of control because of this.

3) Fluctuations in solar activity is resulting in a warming planet, not human activity

4) It snowed yesterday.. in Mt. Isa?!?! How can the planet be warming up if this is the case?

The last one is particularly absurd; if I understand the principles better, maybe I'll find why the other arguments are ridiculous too. I'm sure if there really is a "urban heat island" though, its effects would just be corrected for.

This is a unique situation for me, as I'm rarely on the side of liberals. Then again, I'm rarely on the side of "conservatives" either, and I don't see any reason why we should sideline the truth; even if doing so may compromise the ideological paradigms we desire to apply to the world.
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« Last Edit: Jul 6th, 2010 at 4:20am by aikmann4 »  
 
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Paella
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Re: Understanding Global Warming - Where to Start?
Reply #4 - Jul 6th, 2010 at 7:49am
 
I thoroughly recommend The Hot Topic by Gabrielle Walker and Sir David King. It was last published about 18 months ago.
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aikmann4
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Re: Understanding Global Warming - Where to Start?
Reply #5 - Jul 6th, 2010 at 7:53am
 
Awesome, checking out the Amazon.com reviews now. You can always get a laugh by reading some of the */***** reviews of books on Amazon.
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muso
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Re: Understanding Global Warming - Where to Start?
Reply #6 - Jul 6th, 2010 at 9:36am
 
aikmann4 wrote on Jul 6th, 2010 at 3:57am:
Wow, thanks Muso. Do you know any good books for a Global Warming greenhorn such as myself as well? I'm really interested in understanding the fundamental principles that the science is constructed upon (perhaps not as in depth as to comprehend the actual mathematical models), because I want to see if the arguments made by many of the skeptics actually match up with the science, and don't just obfuscate and misrepresent, as is so common with the sciences that I am primarily interested in (evolutionary theory, HBD and psychometrics).


Paella made a good suggestion there.

Quote:
Here are some of the arguments I've heard frequently from skeptics:

1) Urban Heat Island

Something like, the actual measurements of temperatures in various regions are skewed, because urban areas generate heat and the stations used to measure temperatures are often located in urban areas.


Yeah. Climatologists actually know about this  Shocked They have been making corrections for it for years.

Quote:
2) Positive/Negative feedback

Climate, like most known systems in the Universe, is one characterised by negative feedback. It is stable and temperatures will not spiral out of control because of this.


Championed by Richard Lindzen. Experience has not borne this out.

Quote:
3) Fluctuations in solar activity is resulting in a warming planet, not human activity


We measure that pretty accurately. It's been decreasing slightly if anything.

Quote:
4) It snowed yesterday.. in Mt. Isa?!?! How can the planet be warming up if this is the case?


Expect more snow in those places where it gets cold enough. One of the predictions is that the precipitation will increase in some areas. As a rule of thumb, the wetter parts will get wetter and the drier parts will get drier.

Quote:
This is a unique situation for me, as I'm rarely on the side of liberals. Then again, I'm rarely on the side of "conservatives" either, and I don't see any reason why we should sideline the truth; even if doing so may compromise the ideological paradigms we desire to apply to the world.


It's not a liberal issue. I'm not a socialist. Neither is Arnold Schwarzenneger.

Some (small l) liberals are trying to hijack the issue and use it as a means of redistributing global wealth. That annoys the hell out of me because it just gets people off side. Politically, I'm a Centrist. I'm also an enthusiastic capitalist, but we need to stop sh1tting in our nests and start looking to the future, because in the end it will cause enormous economic and  human consequences.

We need to take a Pareto approach (concentrate on the big issues first) to reducing emissions starting with the biggest emitters. Ignore those countries which have never developed. Most of them never will.

The BRIC countries are an exception to this, but they should grasp the initiative and start producing package solar power stations and other sustainable projects.  They are dynamic enough to do it without assistance.

It's not an insurmountable problem. Those countries that get in first with sustainable technology will benefit the most.

There is a real economic opportunity here.  Wink
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aikmann4
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Re: Understanding Global Warming - Where to Start?
Reply #7 - Jul 7th, 2010 at 4:46am
 
It is not always a liberal issue, Muso; indeed, it should not be a political issue at all, but the reality is that it has become one. From my experiences, those that identify as politically conservative tend to be doubtful of it as an actual phenomeon, or at least one being driven by human activity, while "liberals" believe the opposite. Conservative opposition and denial may stem from some perception that its acknowledgement may compromise their existing ideological paradigms. Maybe 'conservatives' are just more likely to accept the arguments of the skeptics because of these internal biases? I think most, if not all, people pick their arguments this way. I know I do.. just a little Wink Cheesy
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muso
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Re: Understanding Global Warming - Where to Start?
Reply #8 - Jul 8th, 2010 at 8:42am
 
aikmann4 wrote on Jul 7th, 2010 at 4:46am:
It is not always a liberal issue, Muso; indeed, it should not be a political issue at all, but the reality is that it has become one. From my experiences, those that identify as politically conservative tend to be doubtful of it as an actual phenomeon, or at least one being driven by human activity, while "liberals" believe the opposite. Conservative opposition and denial may stem from some perception that its acknowledgement may compromise their existing ideological paradigms. Maybe 'conservatives' are just more likely to accept the arguments of the skeptics because of these internal biases? I think most, if not all, people pick their arguments this way. I know I do.. just a little Wink Cheesy



I'm not even interested in mixing politics with science on this issue or even talking about it. It's bad enough already, and it annoys me when people talk about this issue as if it were some kind of leftish plot.  We don't need politics to describe the science behind radiative forcing or ocean acidification.

Anybody who cares about the future of human civilisation has a vested influence in addressing this issue, regardless of their politics. This is not about saving the whales, it's about saving  our sorry arses.
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perceptions_now
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Re: Understanding Global Warming - Where to Start?
Reply #9 - Jul 16th, 2010 at 3:41pm
 
Figures show hottest June on record


Last month was the hottest June ever recorded on Earth, the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) said overnight.

The combined global land and ocean surface temperature data also found the January-June and April-June periods were the warmest on record, according to NOAA's National Climatic Data Centre, which based its findings on measurements that go back as far as 1880.

In June, the combined average for global land and ocean temperatures was 16.2 degrees Celsius, 0.68C more than the 20th century average of 15.5C.

Temperatures warmer than average spread throughout the globe in recent months, most prominently in Peru, in the central and eastern United States and in eastern and western Asia, according to NOAA.

In contrast, cooler-than-average conditions affected Scandinavia, southern China and the US north-west.

The Beijing Climate Centre found that Inner Mongolia, Heilongjiang and Jilin experienced their warmest June since records began in 1951, while Guizhou saw its coolest June ever.

Spain's nationwide temperatures made June the coolest in 13 years, according to its meteorological surface.

Global ocean surface temperatures averaged 0.54C above last century's average of 16.4C - the fourth warmest June since records began. The Atlantic Ocean saw the most pronounced warmth, NOAA said.

The average land surface temperature that month was 1.07C more than the 20th century average of 13.3C.

Meanwhile, sea surface temperatures were declining throughout the equatorial Pacific Ocean, in line with the end of El Nino, a climate pattern that lasts an average of five years during which unusually warm sea surface temperatures in the Pacific Ocean move east.

NOAA's Climate Prediction Centre forecast that La Nina conditions, where ocean waters in the east-central equatorial Pacific are unusually cool, would likely develop during the northern hemisphere summer this year.
Link -
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2010/07/16/2955397.htm?section=justin
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muso
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Re: Understanding Global Warming - Where to Start?
Reply #10 - Jul 16th, 2010 at 9:16pm
 
perceptions_now wrote on Jul 16th, 2010 at 3:41pm:
Figures show hottest June on record


Last month was the hottest June ever recorded on Earth, the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) said overnight.


Whatever happened to the new Maunder minimum that everybody was talking about a year ago, with colder than average temperatures? The sunspot numbers are still relatively low. It's probably a good thing. The hottest June since records began even though we're going through a period of extended low solar flux and a fairly neutral Southern Oscillation Index.
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perceptions_now
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Re: Understanding Global Warming - Where to Start?
Reply #11 - Jul 17th, 2010 at 12:32pm
 
muso wrote on Jul 16th, 2010 at 9:16pm:
perceptions_now wrote on Jul 16th, 2010 at 3:41pm:
Figures show hottest June on record


Last month was the hottest June ever recorded on Earth, the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) said overnight.


Whatever happened to the new Maunder minimum that everybody was talking about a year ago, with colder than average temperatures? The sunspot numbers are still relatively low. It's probably a good thing. The hottest June since records began even though we're going through a period of extended low solar flux and a fairly neutral Southern Oscillation Index.


In my opinion, humble or not, if we do not take suitable measures (quickly) to mitigate the risks that the majority of scientists are telling us about, then it is very possible that we may un-necessarily endanger future future generations & perhaps even the human species!

We willingly pay insurance premiums, to mitigate the worst affects of some known risks that are relatively minor, compared to Climate Change.

But, for what may well turn out to be our greatest crisis, we are greeted with what borders on total in-action.

Isn't human nature wonderful?
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muso
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Re: Understanding Global Warming - Where to Start?
Reply #12 - Jul 17th, 2010 at 2:31pm
 
No arguments there.
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Re: Understanding Global Warming - Where to Start?
Reply #13 - Jul 18th, 2010 at 11:07am
 
But, for what may well turn out to be our greatest crisis, we are greeted with what borders on total in-action.

Isn't human nature wonderful?
===================

I bet it is for the same reasons  behind as  to why we idealize the 'wrong' people and their  'lifestyles' sadly.
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muso
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Re: Understanding Global Warming - Where to Start?
Reply #14 - Jul 18th, 2010 at 11:10am
 
Quote:
But, for what may well turn out to be our greatest crisis, we are greeted with what borders on total in-action.

Isn't human nature wonderful?
===================

I bet it is for the same reasons  behind as  to why we idealize the 'wrong' people and their  'lifestyles' sadly.


Quite a lot is happening - just not quickly enough.
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