Amadd wrote on Jan 19^th, 2019 at 2:22am:


Everything has Limits!
We are now at some of those limits!
We will have to change (no matter who says what), one way or the other, BUT CHANGE IS CERTAIN!

Yes, I do too. Change, in a big way.
The last time I heard the music Industry change in a big (new) way was when Nirvana 'changed' the sound and its effects carried over the years, long after they were gone.
These days, its still folding back (mainstream) into 'Retro' (hence why the Queen movie is big... 'old'  ) and 'safe' factory processed songs.

So too does the Economy and other factors like Politics, Military, etc - experience a big change.
I think that since 2000, the Economy has experienced some very erratic ups and downs that seem almost yearly. It's up and by the end of that year, its down. Same with Real Estate, Mining, etc. Since 2000 its has felt like the Economy was going to Boom or Crash often - but it never really went off the scale in either direction.
The Economy (Global inc) has been rushing from nothing to nought at the end.

But now I think, especially when they 'fire' Trump (for being too 'wild' a card for them to play with). We might see that extreme variation of change that upsets the apple-cart for a very long time.

Amadd wrote on Jan 19^th, 2019 at 12:11pm:

Jasin wrote on Jan 20^th, 2019 at 9:36am:


Well that's hardly a ground breaking prediction
Things always have changed.
In fact if you want to make a prediction that is a certainty to come true just predict that "things are going to change"

For those who may not agree, let me expand a little -

I would suggest that, WE have never had a Climate Change event (& certainly not like this) AND HAD A GLOBAL DEMOGRAPHIC OF SOME 7-8 BILLION PEOPLE!

We have also not had such a SLOWING OF OUR GLOBAL DEMOGRAPHIC, which is likely to be a prelude to AN ACTUAL DECLINE IN OUR GLOBAL POPULATION, because we can not supply current Demographic levels with enough Food, Water &/or Energy!

Also, the GLOBAL ENERGY SUPPLY & PRICING, IS NOW DISAPPEARING, as is our capacity to rely on constant Economic Growth!

AND, ALL OF THIS AT THE SAME TIME, IS CERTAINLY UNIQUE IN HUMAN HISTORY!

Depopulation And Monetization... Like Peas And Carrots

Summary
As depopulation is taking place, it is tracked by declining births, and eventually, by declining 0 to 64yr/old populations vs. still expanding 65+yr/old populations. Outright depopulation only takes over once the declines among the under 65yr/olds outweigh the ongoing growth among the 65+yr/olds.

Half the states plus Puerto Rico are experiencing either outright or the early onset version of depopulation (under 65yr/old depopulation).

While states like Michigan and Ohio are not net depopulating (yet), the declining under 65yr/old populations are only masked by the even faster growing 65+yr/old populations.

What is taking place on top of negative birth rates is a rural-to-urban flight of young adults in search of opportunity. The negative birthrates, coupled with urban flight, are leaving the majority of US counties in outright, net depopulation.

In contemporary, post-World War II times, the process of depopulation is the declining number of births pitted against significantly longer life spans of the existing population. Given this, depopulation starts from the declining quantity of young and slowly works its way up the population. So, as depopulation is taking place, it is tracked by declining births, and eventually, by declining 0 to 64yr/old populations vs. still expanding 65+yr/old populations. Outright depopulation only takes over once the declines among the under 65yr/olds outweigh the ongoing growth among the 65+yr/olds.

In 2011, there was one state plus Puerto Rico that experienced outright depopulation. However, by 2018, that number has increased to 9 states (Alaska, Connecticut, Hawaii, Illinois, Louisiana, Mississippi, New York, West Virginia, Wyoming), plus Puerto Rico that are outright shrinking (chart below).
See article - for chart

In 2018, an additional 16 states (Maine, New Jersey, Pennsylvania, Ohio, Michigan, Indiana, New Hampshire, Rhode Island, Vermont, Connecticut, Kentucky, New Mexico, Kansas, Missouri, Wisconsin, Alabama) were experiencing the precursor to outright depopulation; declining 0 to 64yr/old populations, versus ongoing growth among the 65+yr/old population.

But a national economy is a collection of many small economies, each with its own tax base and retirees. In America, there are 3,142 counties, (including boroughs, parishes, etc.). What is taking place on top of negative birth rates is a rural to urban flight of young adults in search of opportunity. This means a relatively small number of urban counties located in major metropolitan centers are growing rapidly (Portland, Boston, Dallas, Houston, the Bay Area, New York, Miami, etc.). However, the negative birthrates, coupled with urban flight, are leaving the majority of US counties in outright, net depopulation. My guesstimate is that 60-80% of US counties are in outright depopulation (under 65yr/old populations declining faster than still growing 65+yr/old populations). Some implications of depopulation among these smallest of economic units (shrinking 0-64yr/olds vs. growing 65+yr/olds):

Shrinking potential rural workforces
Shrinking potential rural consumer bases
Shrinking rural tax bases
Growing quantity of rural sellers vs. shrinking quantity of rural buyers
Growing quantity of rural elderly social welfare and retirement recipients vs. poorly and underfunded pension plans.

Thinking Global
Remembering that modern depopulation is a process that begins with declining births (masked by elderly living decades longer than their predecessors), the chart below shows the global annual births of the nations with per capita incomes above $775/yr. This is 91% of the world's population, and these nations earn 99% of the income, have 99% of the savings, and consume 99% of earth's energy and commodities. So, the fact that births among this population peaked 30 years ago and continue falling means this declining consumer base (depopulation) is now undercutting global demand.

Conclusion
Modern depopulation is a bottom-up process that has been underway for decades. Monetization (central banks creating money with which they "retire" assets) is the inverse action to continue boosting asset prices in the face of depopulation and decelerating demand. Expect these two trends to inversely accelerate over the coming years... until something breaks.

https://seekingalpha.com/article/4236145-depopulation-monetization-like-peas-car...
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As previously discussed, there are actually a FEW MAJOR influencing Factors -
1) Demographics
2) Energy
3) Climate Change
Ans, what arises from these in terms of Demand (or lack of) & Debt!
AND, these factors are very unique in human history!

I suppose sometimes we must realise that we are mammals and mammals will stop breeding when it is not conducive to do so.

We're in a pickle regarding the quandary between our natural state and our capitalist system.
On top of that we must also regard climate change as a real issue.

Western governments are pushing the bar as far as possible with unending debt of the masses and importation of foreign workers who will never afford a home of their own.

When the music stops, it's every man for himself. 

A 'Sobering Outlook' For The U.S. Economy

Summary
"It's a pretty sobering outlook" for the U.S. economy, says Hedgeye Demography analyst Neil Howe.

The demographic and productivity trends underlying the U.S. economy over the next decade or so are troubling.

The 2020’s look unremittingly bad. The average growth rate of the working age population will be around 0.2%.



Demography analyst Neil Howe:
What I see right now is that the entire global economic recovery cycle is beginning to wind down.
Why is real growth slowing down?

The fundamental reason is that we've run out of room for more employment. If you look at age and gender categories individually, and then adjust it by age, we are above the level of employment to population rate that we were at in 2007.

That's a secular trend. So I think we're running on fumes there.

Howe: Well, yeah, take a look at that. By the way, we were just releasing a piece this morning taking on a recent report by Morgan Stanley, talking about the coming "youth boom" in the economy and how the demographic tailwinds are really at our back. We don't see it that way. If you just looked at the Census Bureau projections, those don't look very encouraging.

So take a look at that chart again, because I just want to point out we will have a little rebound. But the 2020's looks unremittingly bad. The average growth rate of the working age population would be around 0.2%. That's just above zero.


Howe: The next slide is interesting.

What we did is a very simple model of the economy going back, through the postwar era, going back to 1960. We made a very simple model of the economy where we just basically said, "what if we modeled that every year the economy was going to grow at the rate of the working age population plus the trailing 10-year trend in productivity growth and the employment population growth."
You can see, first of all, how our 10-year compound annual growth rate for GDP has really gone down, right?
You can see, for instance, how back in the seventies, all the boomers coming in and all the women coming into the workforce should have hugely expanded GDP. But of course that was contracted by a huge collapse of productivity and so on.

And you can also see that the problem recently over the past 15 years is that we've been suffering on all counts. That is to say, employment population rates have gone down. The demographic growth has slowed way down and our productivity growth has come down.

So that's a disaster.


Howe: Now, one last chart, we just project that into the future.
Those light blue lines, that's just the growth rate of the working age population. We assume that there's going to be no net change over time and we just take the trailing 10-year productivity growth rate and we cast it forward.

Now, you might say, "Wow, that looks pessimistic." And it is, but keep in mind that the IMF right now was already projecting 1.4% growth by the year 2024. The CBO is at 1.8%. The Fed is at 1.8% as well. We get 1.3%.

So if you're realistic, and you look at 10-year trailing averages just like what we did, it's a pretty sobering outlook.


https://seekingalpha.com/article/4237725-sobering-outlook-u-s-economy?ifp=0
===================================
Remember, there are a few major influencing factors -
1) Demographics
2) Energy
3) Climate Change