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For the Record (Read 173380 times)
perceptions_now
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Re: For the Record
Reply #1575 - Oct 13th, 2018 at 6:58pm
 
The_Barnacle wrote on Oct 6th, 2018 at 1:26pm:
perceptions_now wrote on Dec 3rd, 2010 at 10:30am:
All indications are that by 2012 the global economy is going to run headlong into a funding wall.

Markets always anticipate events at least 6 months in advance. This wall is so huge I doubt the market will wait and likely will begin adjusting 12- 14 months ahead!

All bets are off if we get another sovereign or possible US State surprise. This would move our Maturity Wall even 'closer in'.

This is only one issue of concern, in a wall of worry, which is currently heading our way!


2012? Did I miss something?  Grin Grin Grin Grin Grin


As previously stated, it is quite difficult to pick the timing, But the Long Term Outcomes have been interlocked, for quite some time & those in positions of power have not taken Actions Appropriate to Remedy the Likely Adverse Finally!

You & WE, will ALL know, WHEN THE FINAL ACT GETS UNDER WAY!   


perceptions_now wrote on Jan 19th, 2017 at 9:50am:
Amadd wrote on Jan 18th, 2017 at 11:30pm:
Really Percy, you've been banging on for years now. Eventually, of course, you'll be able to say "I told yas so". And so would anybody else.

Even a stopped clock is correct twice a day.


As previously stated, the "normal Modern Economic cycle" is now ending, as the standard "Major Modern Economic Movers" are now coming to their predictable conclusion.

Those Major Modern Economic Movers being -
1) Demographics (Population Growth)
2) Energy (Cheap & Available)
3) Climate (the fairytale Climate is now changing)
4) Technology (now slowing AND Technology is also a 2 edged sword)

We have already had the GFC, which was only a starter!

The next part of what is coming, has also been long predictable, because TPTB (the Pollies, Big Business & Unions) have for far too long pushed their own Short Term interests, at the expense of the Best, Long Term interests of the Entire Population!

Finally, what & when will precipitate the start of what is to come Economically, is quite difficult because of the amount of "pushing & pulling in various directions.

BUT, I would suggest the Black Swan event, which will push us into the next phase, is now closing in quickly!

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Amadd
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Re: For the Record
Reply #1576 - Oct 19th, 2018 at 11:10pm
 
Quote:
As previously stated, the "normal Modern Economic cycle" is now ending, as the standard "Major Modern Economic Movers" are now coming to their predictable conclusion.

Those Major Modern Economic Movers being -
1) Demographics (Population Growth)
2) Energy (Cheap & Available)
3) Climate (the fairytale Climate is now changing)
4) Technology (now slowing AND Technology is also a 2 edged sword)



I agree with you that the timing is hard to pick. We should have had a downturn some years ago to soften the blow of what we are exposed to now.

At long last the housing bubble is popping, or at least deflating.
Propped up by foreign investors and greedy banks, the average worker was forced to take on unsustainable debt in a climate of stagnant and lowering wages if they wanted a family home. Those with some money (and some without) also took on unrealistic debt in the belief that housing prices would never fall.

Now with the end of interest only loans, a few slight rises in interest rates will keep a lot of people in debt for the rest of their lives. Goodo for BB!

I doubt if the reserve bank can afford to raise interest rates, but if they don't, this will put pressures on other areas and our dollar will slide a long way. That's probably the better alternative because it might eventually spark some manufacturing opportunities.

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perceptions_now
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Re: For the Record
Reply #1577 - Oct 20th, 2018 at 1:14pm
 
Amadd wrote on Oct 19th, 2018 at 11:10pm:
Quote:
As previously stated, the "normal Modern Economic cycle" is now ending, as the standard "Major Modern Economic Movers" are now coming to their predictable conclusion.

Those Major Modern Economic Movers being -
1) Demographics (Population Growth)
2) Energy (Cheap & Available)
3) Climate (the fairytale Climate is now changing)
4) Technology (now slowing AND Technology is also a 2 edged sword)



I agree with you that the timing is hard to pick. We should have had a downturn some years ago to soften the blow of what we are exposed to now.

At long last the housing bubble is popping, or at least deflating.
Propped up by foreign investors and greedy banks, the average worker was forced to take on unsustainable debt in a climate of stagnant and lowering wages if they wanted a family home. Those with some money (and some without) also took on unrealistic debt in the belief that housing prices would never fall.

Now with the end of interest only loans, a few slight rises in interest rates will keep a lot of people in debt for the rest of their lives. Goodo for BB!

I doubt if the reserve bank can afford to raise interest rates, but if they don't, this will put pressures on other areas and our dollar will slide a long way. That's probably the better alternative because it might eventually spark some manufacturing opportunities.



Well "Normally",  events unfold in a reasonably pickable sequence, so timing can be estimated, within reasonable parameters.

BUT, this time around, THE UNFOLDING EVENTS, are PRETTY MUCH ONCE IN HISTORY (UNIQUE) AND THOSE WITH VESTED INTERESTS ARE ALSO PULLING/PUSHING FOR OUTCOMES TO CHANGE!

So, picking the timing this time, is much more difficult!!!   

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Re: For the Record
Reply #1578 - Oct 20th, 2018 at 6:41pm
 
Will The Economy Crash In 2019?


...

https://seekingalpha.com/article/4211853-will-economy-crash-2019?ifp=0
====================================
As already indicated, usually Economic Declines are "somewhat" Predictable, in terms of Timing & as can be seen from the above chart, they have occurred at "regular intervals", during the modern Economic period.

That said, this time "IS UNIQUE", so the next Deline could happen at any time!!!
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Re: For the Record
Reply #1579 - Oct 20th, 2018 at 9:19pm
 
There's a pattern there.

But the curve-ball is Trump.
Economically he is 'Dark Horse' and outside the square from conventional Presidents (mostly War-Mongerers and Media suck-ups) for better part of an entire century.

If the USA drops in Economics - it will be 'after' Trump is gone.
He is a Peace-Mongerer (deflecting China's 'fears' away from USA and against Russia, while pacifying NK) but very aggressive Economically. Probably the best the USA has ever seen, although he is still yet to show his final results at the end of Term.
Regardless, he inherited a sinking ship and with no help from the Media, he's keeping it afloat.

I expect India's economy will overtake China's for a start.
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AIMLESS EXTENTION OF KNOWLEDGE HOWEVER, WHICH IS WHAT I THINK YOU REALLY MEAN BY THE TERM 'CURIOSITY', IS MERELY INEFFICIENCY. I AM DESIGNED TO AVOID INEFFICIENCY.
 
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Re: For the Record
Reply #1580 - Oct 21st, 2018 at 11:38pm
 
Quote:
I expect India's economy will overtake China's for a start.


The problem with India is that there's too many Indians. A more corrupt race you will not find.
But they breed like rabbits, so there's always a market there.

I agree with Percy that the situation now is very different to other recessions, and so it was also in the GFC.
To a lot of us, we haven't recovered at all from the GFC; it's only gotten worse. Wages are lower, debt is far higher, interest rates are at record lows. It's all just artificially printing money with no backing.

You would expect, in more natural and normal circumstances, that interest rates would skyrocket leaving those who took the risk of large debt holding the baby. But then you get this "too big to fail" paradigm where the offer to buy debt, or request for bail-in money (pretty much the same thing IMO) must be accepted or your economy will suffer.

To me, it would be fair enough for China to say to the U.S. " Look, you owe us so much money that you're never going to be able to pay. How about you give us Nebraska (or some other area) and we'll wipe the slate clean?"  Grin

I jest, however, that other area may be an assurance that the U.S. won't interfere in a takover of the Spratly islands, for example.i
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« Last Edit: Oct 21st, 2018 at 11:46pm by Amadd »  
 
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Re: For the Record
Reply #1581 - Oct 25th, 2018 at 5:09pm
 
Good Luck, I think WE may well  need it!

This is not likely, to be the end, only a continuation of likely outcomes!
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Re: For the Record
Reply #1582 - Oct 26th, 2018 at 7:48pm
 
The catch is that I see USA & China as nothing more than two BIG 'Labourers'. Not Academics, not Engineers and not 'Clerks' (like Australia).
They have huge populations: The Body
They have a small amount of rich, powerful : The Brain Cells
...we all know that Labourers are not the wealthiest in the Workforce.
Australia has a lot of Brain Cells, but a very minimalistic population growth (small weak body).

The World is economically stuffed because it is being bullied by two 'Labourers'.  Roll Eyes Roll Eyes
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AIMLESS EXTENTION OF KNOWLEDGE HOWEVER, WHICH IS WHAT I THINK YOU REALLY MEAN BY THE TERM 'CURIOSITY', IS MERELY INEFFICIENCY. I AM DESIGNED TO AVOID INEFFICIENCY.
 
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Re: For the Record
Reply #1583 - Oct 26th, 2018 at 7:53pm
 
Jasin wrote on Oct 20th, 2018 at 9:19pm:
There's a pattern there.

But the curve-ball is Trump.
Economically he is 'Dark Horse' and outside the square from conventional Presidents (mostly War-Mongerers and Media suck-ups) for better part of an entire century.

If the USA drops in Economics - it will be 'after' Trump is gone.
He is a Peace-Mongerer (deflecting China's 'fears' away from USA and against Russia, while pacifying NK) but very aggressive Economically. Probably the best the USA has ever seen, although he is still yet to show his final results at the end of Term.
Regardless, he inherited a sinking ship and with no help from the Media, he's keeping it afloat.

I expect India's economy will overtake China's for a start.


The upside for toilet manufactures for the Indian market is pretty good!
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Re: For the Record
Reply #1584 - Oct 26th, 2018 at 8:04pm
 
Gordon wrote on Oct 26th, 2018 at 7:53pm:
Jasin wrote on Oct 20th, 2018 at 9:19pm:
There's a pattern there.

But the curve-ball is Trump.
Economically he is 'Dark Horse' and outside the square from conventional Presidents (mostly War-Mongerers and Media suck-ups) for better part of an entire century.

If the USA drops in Economics - it will be 'after' Trump is gone.
He is a Peace-Mongerer (deflecting China's 'fears' away from USA and against Russia, while pacifying NK) but very aggressive Economically. Probably the best the USA has ever seen, although he is still yet to show his final results at the end of Term.
Regardless, he inherited a sinking ship and with no help from the Media, he's keeping it afloat.

I expect India's economy will overtake China's for a start.


The upside for toilet manufactures for the Indian market is pretty good!


True.
I was basing my mention of India due to them teaching the Arabs all about Mathematics, who then taught Europeans.
The 'Blacks' invented Maths (Black Market, In the Black, etc). China is just a 'false prophet' Economically. It will eventually blow itself out like a Supernova.
Of course, even for India - having a 'billion' plus population kinda holds it back from being the #1 Economy.
The fact that it is the most racist nation on the planet doesn't help either.

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AIMLESS EXTENTION OF KNOWLEDGE HOWEVER, WHICH IS WHAT I THINK YOU REALLY MEAN BY THE TERM 'CURIOSITY', IS MERELY INEFFICIENCY. I AM DESIGNED TO AVOID INEFFICIENCY.
 
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Re: For the Record
Reply #1585 - Oct 28th, 2018 at 10:50pm
 
I wasn't aware that the Indians taught the Arabs math …..Go figure.

Anyway, it seems that we have low property clearance rates again this weekend which was traditionally the best time of year to sell.
The Chinese tour buses have taken a detour to less brown pastures and now we must return to more natural economics where a house is a basic necessity for a family.


Measures to keep housing affordable for Australian families have been employed too late, too hard, and the timing is atrocious (unless of course they want to catch people with their pants down).

Within the next couple of years, we're going to see people realising that they've been legally enslaved to debt for the term of their natural life. Ahh...don't they love these rolling expansive pastures full of easily controlled cash cows!







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Re: For the Record
Reply #1586 - Oct 30th, 2018 at 2:29pm
 
There are Games!

Then, there are Games within Games!

BUT, then, REALITY FINALLY RULES ALL!
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Re: For the Record
Reply #1587 - Oct 30th, 2018 at 5:20pm
 
Amadd wrote on Oct 28th, 2018 at 10:50pm:
I wasn't aware that the Indians taught the Arabs math …..Go figure.

Anyway, it seems that we have low property clearance rates again this weekend which was traditionally the best time of year to sell.
The Chinese tour buses have taken a detour to less brown pastures and now we must return to more natural economics where a house is a basic necessity for a family.


Measures to keep housing affordable for Australian families have been employed too late, too hard, and the timing is atrocious (unless of course they want to catch people with their pants down).

Within the next couple of years, we're going to see people realising that they've been legally enslaved to debt for the term of their natural life. Ahh...don't they love these rolling expansive pastures full of easily controlled cash cows!








Yep - the Indians covert the 'Cow' as Holy. There's money to be made you know Wink
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AIMLESS EXTENTION OF KNOWLEDGE HOWEVER, WHICH IS WHAT I THINK YOU REALLY MEAN BY THE TERM 'CURIOSITY', IS MERELY INEFFICIENCY. I AM DESIGNED TO AVOID INEFFICIENCY.
 
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Re: For the Record
Reply #1588 - Nov 11th, 2018 at 5:29pm
 
3 Triggers That Could Push This Sell-Off Into A Crisis


Summary
There’s very real possibility of a global recession in the next six months.

The three most likely triggers are corporate debt, a trade war, and a slowdown in Europe.

I highly suggest building a cash reserve, deleverage as much as possible, and have a plan for your long-term investments.

There's very real possibility the global economy breaks down in the next six months. Anything could trigger a crisis, and it could well be something no one now foresees. But here are my three candidates.

Corporate Credit Crisis
US companies are way more leveraged now than they were ahead of the 2008 crisis. We saw then what happens when the commercial paper market seizes up. And, that was without a Fed in tightening mode.
There are trillions of dollars of low-rated corporate debt that can easily slide into the junk debt category in a recession.

Trade War
One reason the US economy seems to be booming right now is a surge in imports. Companies are rushing to build inventory ahead of the 25% tariff on Chinese goods that takes effect January 1.

European Slowdown
We recently got October PMI reports from Markit. Its eurozone manufacturing and services index dropped to the lowest point since September 2016. Export-dependent Germany looked especially weak.

Meanwhile, Italy's new budget is wildly out of line with its revenue and growth prospects. This threatens to set off another euro crisis. And then, there's the serious possibility of a hard Brexit in early 2019.

In short, Europe is in real danger of entering recession next year. If that happens, the impact will spread around the globe as the continent reduces imports from the US, China, and elsewhere. Not to mention the potential fireworks if Italy or anyone else actually defaults on debt payments to foreign lenders.

So, What Do You Do?

https://seekingalpha.com/article/4219876-3-triggers-push-sell-crisis?ifp=0
====================================
Well "Normally", events unfold in a reasonably predictable sequence.
So, timing can be estimated, within reasonable parameters.

BUT, this time around, THE UNFOLDING EVENTS, are PRETTY MUCH ONCE IN HISTORY (UNIQUE) AND THOSE WITH VESTED INTERESTS ARE ALSO PULLING/PUSHING FOR OUTCOMES TO CHANGE! So, picking the timing this time, is much more difficult!

The Major Economic Movers involved are -
1) Demographics (Population Growth is slowing. It has been for quite some time Globally & it will go Negative!)
2) Energy (It has been Cheap & Available, for most of the Modern Era, But that is changing & Change will happen irrespective of Who Tries What!)
3) Climate (the fairytale Climate, which has been with us for quite some time, is now changing & Ending!)

So in terms of Final Outcomes, Good Luck!
I think, WE may All need it!
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« Last Edit: Nov 11th, 2018 at 6:49pm by perceptions_now »  
 
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Re: For the Record
Reply #1589 - Dec 10th, 2018 at 12:59pm
 
Another Day... Another View Of Energy Consumption And Population Growth


From 2013 through 2016 (the most recent data from the EIA), growth in global energy consumption has tanked.

https://seekingalpha.com/article/4226436-another-day-another-view-energy-consump...
===================================
It's all about -
1) Demographics
2) Energy
3) Climate Change
AND, what arises from these in terms of Demand (or lack of) & Debt!

There are a couple of relevant charts, in this article, which go a long way towards telling much of what is going on!
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