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Emission Reduction Targets of developing economies (Read 10886 times)
muso
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Re: Emission Reduction Targets of developing economies
Reply #30 - Dec 22nd, 2009 at 8:41am
 
Paella wrote on Dec 21st, 2009 at 5:38pm:
I don't think it is too controversial to point out that developing economies need more power stations! Economic development has to be fuelled by something, just like ours has been.


What about non-developing countries? (failed states). These are the countries that make up the bulk of the G77. For some of them, I can actually see the benefit in the approach you describe. That group might include Argentina, Chile, Uzbekistan and perhaps Vietnam. In Africa, perhaps Gabon and Central Guinea should be considered. These are countries that are relatively stable, have some capital of their own, and are genuinely developing rather than "non developing" stagnant, usually corrupt failed states.

For the likes of China, India, Saudi Arabia, Brazil and South Africa, they have enough economic clout (and nouse) to get things done by themselves. I really don't have any concerns about China pulling through.

For most of the rest, there would be no tangible benefit for the world in providing assistance. We need to focus on the prime objective, which is to de carbonise the world's economy. Providing new power stations that would never have been built doesn't get us closer to that objective.

The objective is not nation building.
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Paella
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Re: Emission Reduction Targets of developing economies
Reply #31 - Dec 22nd, 2009 at 5:55pm
 
Agreed, the objective is not nation building, but we need to acknowledge that every participating country does have a nation building objective: a duty, in fact. We also must acknowledge that a global agreement on emission reductions will, to some extent, act as a hinderance to that other objective.

China, for example, still has a lot of people living in poverty. It has a duty to raise the standards of living of those people and deliver them from poverty. It is not going to abandon that duty to fix an environmental problem that it didn't cause (at least, it didn't cause very much of it). They are especially not going to abandon that duty, or even lower its priority, if they see the nations that did cause the environmental problem sitting on their hands and doing stuff all about it.
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muso
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Re: Emission Reduction Targets of developing economies
Reply #32 - Dec 23rd, 2009 at 9:23am
 
Paella wrote on Dec 22nd, 2009 at 5:55pm:
Agreed, the objective is not nation building, but we need to acknowledge that every participating country does have a nation building objective: a duty, in fact. We also must acknowledge that a global agreement on emission reductions will, to some extent, act as a hinderance to that other objective.

China, for example, still has a lot of people living in poverty. It has a duty to raise the standards of living of those people and deliver them from poverty. It is not going to abandon that duty to fix an environmental problem that it didn't cause (at least, it didn't cause very much of it). They are especially not going to abandon that duty, or even lower its priority, if they see the nations that did cause the environmental problem sitting on their hands and doing stuff all about it.


I don't know how it is intended to work, but any contribution to projects needs to be indexed to net contribution to the problem.  Maybe China  has not contributed much to date, but if they continue down this path, their relative contribution will increase. After all, they have no intention of shutting down coal fired power stations in the near future.

There needs to be a sliding scale so that there is a financial incentive to improve.

It's likely to be a two-way benefit. The cost of renewable energy packages must come down as they become more prevalent, and there are great opportunities for Australian companies to provide expertise for other global projects if they can demonstrate success in China.

With oil, we are likely to see a rapid rise in prices as supplies become scarser, making other renewable options more viable.

With coal, such an effect is unlikely to eventuate in the near future.  

On your highlighted point, maybe we don't need a 100% global agreement. Some countries in reference to the issue are like ants on an elephant (they are insignificant, but quite capable of complicating the issue) and should be ignored unless they miraculously start to improve their act.
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Darwin
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Re: Emission Reduction Targets of developing economies
Reply #33 - Dec 28th, 2009 at 9:39am
 
We won't run out of coal for a long time, but mines will become deeper & more dangerous.

In Geol II at Adelaide Uni we studied core samples from the Cooper Basin--I remember a huge length of core sample was black coal. From over a Km down IIRC--that was over 40 years ago!
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muso
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Re: Emission Reduction Targets of developing economies
Reply #34 - Dec 28th, 2009 at 10:10am
 
Darwin wrote on Dec 28th, 2009 at 9:39am:
We won't run out of coal for a long time, but mines will become deeper & more dangerous.

In Geol II at Adelaide Uni we studied core samples from the Cooper Basin--I remember a huge length of core sample was black coal. From over a Km down IIRC--that was over 40 years ago!



There are whole coalfieds that we have hardly touched yet in Australia. The Surat Basin is one of them, and it's probably as big as the Bowen Basin.
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Re: Emission Reduction Targets of developing economies
Reply #35 - Dec 28th, 2009 at 11:05am
 
If we are to enforce a global carbon trading regime, rather than forcing the poorest countries to hand over huge sums of money to wealthy nations in order to emit the same level of GHG's, the rights should be distributed evenly amongst the global population, and those nations who wish to emit more should have to ppurchase the rights from thos who don't, rather than getting them for free merely because they have already emitted so much.
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muso
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Re: Emission Reduction Targets of developing economies
Reply #36 - Dec 28th, 2009 at 4:32pm
 
freediver wrote on Dec 28th, 2009 at 11:05am:
If we are to enforce a global carbon trading regime, rather than forcing the poorest countries to hand over huge sums of money to wealthy nations in order to emit the same level of GHG's, the rights should be distributed evenly amongst the global population, and those nations who wish to emit more should have to ppurchase the rights from thos who don't, rather than getting them for free merely because they have already emitted so much.


What you describe sounds a bit like communism.  How do you allocate the share? By population, by GNP or by giving exactly the same allocation for each sovereign nation?

It sounds like the board game Monopoly in which everybody is given an equal amount of money at the beginning. To give any money to failed states is basically throwing money away, or giving them funds that they have not earned.  Perhaps if the credits were allocated on the basis of GNP, then the States that have the technology to solve this problem would be given the opportunity to do so. Virtually all electrical energy that is generated tends to be local in application. It's very difficult to export electricity from (say) Africa because the transmission losses are too high.

Even if we start off that way, failed states will continue to do what they do best:They will continue to fail - regardless of outside help. Saving such countries will rapidly become a luxury we can't afford as we progress down the track.

It is wasted effort that would be better spent on renewable energy projects in developed countries rather than 'non-developing' countries.

If all that sounds callous, I'm sorry, but it is a crisis. It's not a charity program. It's technology that will solve this problem, not growing bananas in the most inefficient way possible.

It sh1ts me to see people applying what amounts to communism - a failed model to something that cannot be allowed to fail.
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« Last Edit: Dec 28th, 2009 at 5:26pm by muso »  

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Re: Emission Reduction Targets of developing economies
Reply #37 - Dec 28th, 2009 at 6:36pm
 
Absolutely agree muso, I do not care too much about trying to equal up for past actions, when we have such pressing issues to deal with in front of us.
Just start taxing carbon emissions and be done with it, some proportion can go towards ameliorating the effects of highe prices for the poor, but the majority of the money should be plowed into renewable energy systems as quickly as we can do it.

We have known that action was needed for over a decade, and done buggerall, so there is no more time ti p1ss about with silly feelgood schemes, we just need to start cutting emmissions now, and put as much effort as we can into renewables.

The whole issue of the developing nations is little more than a red herring in my opinion, just another delaying tactic from big energy companies to try and postpone the inevitable, and then profiteer from it when it is no longer possible to delay any more.
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Re: Emission Reduction Targets of developing economies
Reply #38 - Dec 28th, 2009 at 7:11pm
 
We should start taxing and ruining the standard of living for Australians right away based on phoeney science that the senate has already blocked twice? 

Maybe we should have a referendum on this.
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muso
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Re: Emission Reduction Targets of developing economies
Reply #39 - Dec 28th, 2009 at 9:43pm
 
There is another way, and that is to make it a national priority to replace coal fired power generation with renewable sources. That may end up being the only viable option yet.

How do we allocate funds for military offensives? How did the US allocate funds for the Apollo project? If we allocated funding in the same way into establishing say geothermal energy projects, we'd get there pretty quickly.

We need to keep a critical eye on costs, and manage it on a national basis. Forget about global carbon trading. It's not going to work.

- and if we really want to help non developing countries, then I suggest we help ourselves first, otherwise nobody will be around to help them.

Lets say we have swimmers and non swimmers in a shipwreck. What I'm suggesting is that we let the swimmers get to dry land first and send out rescue parties. The analogy of global carbon trading is for the swimmers to stay in the water, trying to teach the non-swimmers to swim while the non-swimmers are hanging lead weights around the swimmers' necks.

At this rate we're all going to drown.
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Re: Emission Reduction Targets of developing economies
Reply #40 - Dec 29th, 2009 at 2:55pm
 
With current model it doesn't pay to change from developing country to developed country and this is wrong and open to abuse!
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Re: Emission Reduction Targets of developing economies
Reply #41 - Dec 30th, 2009 at 7:53am
 
We need to get rid of brown coal fired power stations! Replace those with gas fired ones. That will reduce emissions bulk! This is interim but relatively easy and cheap.

Better management of bushfires--fuel-load reduction burns emit much less CO2 than a full bore dinkum huge bushfire does! Keep the ban on land clearances and encourage plantations.

To keep the south habitable some of the Qld rivers can have flood control dams built--and that water funnelled into the Murray Darling. Thinking of the Burdekin river particulalrly. That and floodwater harvesting etc.

What renewable energy source has the best bang for the buck? Integral fast breeder reactors!
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muso
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Re: Emission Reduction Targets of developing economies
Reply #42 - Dec 30th, 2009 at 10:22am
 
Integral Fast Breeder Reactors - yes, but geothermal is much more competitive if the source is close to the grid.

Also, if you thought it was tough introducing an ETS into Australia, just wait until you see them try to introduce Nuclear Energy. There are just too many barriers. They can build one in my back yard if they want, but my neighbours would probably object.

I've long since argued that it's a much better option to export our Uranium to safe generators rather than use it in Australia. Thorium is less of an issue than Fast Breeder, and Fast Breeder reactors can easily be used to produce weapons grade plutonium.  

The downside of Thorium is lack of developed technology, although there is a successfully operating Thorium Power Station near Surat, India.

http://www.power-technology.com/features/feature1141/
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« Last Edit: Dec 30th, 2009 at 10:32am by muso »  

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Re: Emission Reduction Targets of developing economies
Reply #43 - Dec 31st, 2009 at 2:35pm
 
Muso I agree with you on Uranium. Better to ship it to the efficient reactors than try to start from scratch here. And the more we ship, the lower the price. So hopefully the most nuclear capable states will increase their nuclear output.

Further, the time the world needs uranium is NOW ... as in over the next 50 years. Uranium can keep us in energy while we bring the cost of renewable generation and distribution down.

I like the swimming analogy, but the distinction with carbon emissions is that in the case of emissions it is the activity itself (economic activity) that causes the problem. For the analogy to be accurate we would need the swimming to be causing the drowning. Further, when big economies go down, as in Russia in 1990, emissions plummet. This benefits the rest of the community from an environemntal point of view, but there would be no benefit to the remaining swimmers if a good went under.
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Re: Emission Reduction Targets of developing economies
Reply #44 - Dec 31st, 2009 at 4:44pm
 
Paella wrote on Dec 31st, 2009 at 2:35pm:
Muso I agree with you on Uranium. Better to ship it to the efficient reactors than try to start from scratch here. And the more we ship, the lower the price. So hopefully the most nuclear capable states will increase their nuclear output.

Further, the time the world needs uranium is NOW ... as in over the next 50 years. Uranium can keep us in energy while we bring the cost of renewable generation and distribution down.

I like the swimming analogy, but the distinction with carbon emissions is that in the case of emissions it is the activity itself (economic activity) that causes the problem. For the analogy to be accurate we would need the swimming to be causing the drowning. Further, when big economies go down, as in Russia in 1990, emissions plummet. This benefits the rest of the community from an environemntal point of view, but there would be no benefit to the remaining swimmers if a good went under.


It's only swimming the wrong way that causes drowning LOL. There is nothing wrong with economic activity as long as it's sustainable.

There is plenty of economic activity in Iceland for example, where 99% of the electricity and energy for direct heating is renewable (hydro and geothermal). Of course, they only have a population of about 300,000. (OK, I realise the irony given their rough ride in the recent stockmarket crash, but they are still living in an advanced economy) 

Economic activity is vital to maintaining prosperity and vital to solving this crisis, as long as it's not based on fossil fuels. (actually that's not strictly true either - we must use fossil fuel based industry in the short term to get us out of the crisis, as long as the resulting capital goes to renewable projects. )

Where else is the new technology going to come from? The solution can only come from economic activity.
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« Last Edit: Dec 31st, 2009 at 4:58pm by muso »  

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