Grendel wrote on May 25
th, 2009 at 9:32pm:
Oh... the predictions changed due to NEW DATA... guess what?
They'll keep changing till one day maybe in a few decades maybe much longer they know enough about climate.
OMG... now its Methane... as well as CO2? Stop farting everyone.
Grendel - What? You didn't realise that methane was an important Greenhouse gas? You seriously need to study the basics. Here's an easy to understand site designed for kids. It has nice pictures and easy to understand text in many different primary colours.
http://www.dnr.state.wi.us/org/caer/ce/eek/earth/air/global.htmThe greenhouse gases
The main gases that cause the greenhouse effect are:
* water vapor
* carbon dioxide, or CO2
* methane (!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! OMG !!!!!!!says Grendel
)
* nitrous oxide
Some "greenhouse gases" occur naturally in the Earth’s atmosphere. Mate - The computer you're using now is a refinement of the computer you had previously (I'm guessing that you went for a newer model). The old one worked well perhaps, but the way of the world is to improve as we find out more. It's the same with everything in the world of science.
The IPCC 4th Annual Report did not say that AR3 was invalid. It simply built on it with new data that was available. It did not change the basic conclusion. As we learn more about the magnitude of methane feedbacks, the original predictions will change - for the worse.
It was expected, but you just can't invent data that isn't there yet.
Climate modelling, like any science based discipline is continually adapting.
Contrast that with the Climate Prognosticators like Richard Lindzen.
He has held on to his Iris Effect model despite many studies that demonstrated time and time again that global water feedbacks are positive. There may be localised events which work the other way around, but the data indicates a climate sensitivity of 3 +/- 1.5 Celsius degrees for a doubling of CO2 concentration. The vast majority of papers fall well within that range. Where does Lindzen put it? He doesn't. No published paper on climate sensitivity.
That's not science. It's pure advocacy, and an advocate will generally adopt a static unchangeable position.