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Model lessons... (Read 18197 times)
muso
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Re: Model lessons...
Reply #105 - Jun 12th, 2009 at 8:34am
 
Grendel wrote on Jun 7th, 2009 at 9:53pm:
The simple truth is so hard for denialists to swallow Soren.

That sounds almost like a benediction.
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Grendel
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Re: Model lessons...
Reply #106 - Jun 12th, 2009 at 11:06am
 
If it was...  it'd be yours.
Quote:
Scientists from Rochester, the University of Alabama in Huntsville (UAH) and the University of Virginia compared the climate change "forecasts" from the 22 most widely-cited global circulation models with tropical temperature data collected by surface, satellite and balloon sensors. The models predicted that the lower atmosphere should warm significantly more than it actually did.

"Models are very consistent in forecasting a significant difference between climate trends at the surface and in the troposphere, the layer of atmosphere between the surface and the stratosphere," said Dr. John Christy, director of UAH's Earth System Science Center. "The models forecast that the troposphere should be warming more than the surface and that this trend should be especially pronounced in the tropics.

"When we look at actual climate data, however, we do not see accelerated warming in the tropical troposphere. Instead, the lower and middle atmosphere are warming the same or less than the surface. For those layers of the atmosphere, the warming trend we see in the tropics is typically less than half of what the models forecast."

The 22 climate models used in this study are the same models used by the UN Intergovernmental Panel of Climate Change (IPCC), which recently shared a Nobel Peace Prize with former Vice President Al Gore.


One day that Nobel prize is gonna be seen for what it is...  a complete joke.
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« Last Edit: Jun 12th, 2009 at 11:23am by Grendel »  
 
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Re: Model lessons...
Reply #107 - Jun 12th, 2009 at 11:39am
 
Antarctic temperatures disagree with climate model predictions

COLUMBUS , Ohio – A new report on climate over the world's southernmost continent shows that temperatures during the late 20th century did not climb as had been predicted by many global climate models.

This comes soon after the latest report by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change that strongly supports the conclusion that the Earth's climate as a whole is warming, largely due to human activity.

It also follows a similar finding from last summer by the same research group that showed no increase in precipitation over Antarctica in the last 50 years. Most models predict that both precipitation and temperature will increase over Antarctica with a warming of the planet.

David Bromwich, professor of professor of atmospheric sciences in the Department of Geography, and researcher with the Byrd Polar Research Center at Ohio State University, reported on this work at the annual meeting of the American Association for the Advancement of Science at San Francisco.

"It's hard to see a global warming signal from the mainland of Antarctica right now," he said. "Part of the reason is that there is a lot of variability there. It's very hard in these polar latitudes to demonstrate a global warming signal. This is in marked contrast to the northern tip of the Antarctic Peninsula that is one of the most rapidly warming parts of the Earth."

Bromwich says that the problem rises from several complications. The continent is vast, as large as the United States and Mexico combined. Only a small amount of detailed data is available – there are perhaps only 100 weather stations on that continent compared to the thousands spread across the U.S. and Europe . And the records that we have only date back a half-century.

"The best we can say right now is that the climate models are somewhat inconsistent with the evidence that we have for the last 50 years from continental Antarctica .

"We're looking for a small signal that represents the impact of human activity and it is hard to find it at the moment," he said.
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Re: Model lessons...
Reply #108 - Jun 12th, 2009 at 11:57am
 
http://www.rightsidenews.com/200906014991/energy-and-environment/climate-modesl-are-wrong-explanation-of-why.html

suggested reading...

Fortunately, the most serious problem the climate models have (in my view) is one which is easily understood by the public. So, I'm going to make yet another attempt at explaining why the computerized climate models tracked by the U.N.'s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) - all 23 of them - predict too much warming for our future. The basic problem I am talking about has been peer reviewed and published by us, and so cannot be dismissed lightly.

But this time I will use no graphs (!), and I will use only a single number (!!) which I promise will be a small one. Smile

I will do this in three steps. First, I will use the example of a pot of water on the stove to demonstrate why the temperature of things (like the Earth) rises or falls.

Secondly, I will describe why so many climate model "experts" believe that adding CO2 to the atmosphere will cause the climate system to warm by a large, possibly catastrophic amount.

Finally, I will show how Mother Nature has fooled those climate experts into programming climate models to behave incorrectly.
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skippy
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Re: Model lessons...
Reply #109 - Jun 12th, 2009 at 12:04pm
 
Go for it boof,if you can convince me you are right I'll post your findings on every forum I use.
I'm not holding my breath tho.
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muso
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Re: Model lessons...
Reply #110 - Jun 14th, 2009 at 9:12am
 
Grendel wrote on Jun 12th, 2009 at 11:06am:
If it was...  it'd be yours.
Quote:
Scientists from Rochester, the University of Alabama in Huntsville (UAH) and the University of Virginia compared the climate change "forecasts" from the 22 most widely-cited global circulation models with tropical temperature data collected by surface, satellite and balloon sensors. The models predicted that the lower atmosphere should warm significantly more than it actually did.

"Models are very consistent in forecasting a significant difference between climate trends at the surface and in the troposphere, the layer of atmosphere between the surface and the stratosphere," said Dr. John Christy, director of UAH's Earth System Science Center. "The models forecast that the troposphere should be warming more than the surface and that this trend should be especially pronounced in the tropics.

"When we look at actual climate data, however, we do not see accelerated warming in the tropical troposphere. Instead, the lower and middle atmosphere are warming the same or less than the surface. For those layers of the atmosphere, the warming trend we see in the tropics is typically less than half of what the models forecast."

The 22 climate models used in this study are the same models used by the UN Intergovernmental Panel of Climate Change (IPCC), which recently shared a Nobel Peace Prize with former Vice President Al Gore.


One day that Nobel prize is gonna be seen for what it is...  a complete joke.



Huntsville Alabama eh? Those wouldn't be the same 'Good ol boys' who falsified the satellite temperature records now? I suspect they are. Hmmmm.
http://climateprogress.org/2008/05/22/should-you-believe-anything-john-christy-o...

The deniers are winning, especially with the GOP” can’t seem to get enough of the analyses by these two scientists University of Alabama in Huntsville (UAH) who famously screwed up the satellite temperature measurements of the troposphere.


Yee ha!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! Grin Grin Grin

If'n you want data that show's Global Warming ain't happening, wha' it wd be our pleasure to manufacture it for y'all.

That hilarious gem in reply 108 is brought to you by Roy Spencer.
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« Last Edit: Jun 14th, 2009 at 9:36am by muso »  

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muso
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Re: Model lessons...
Reply #111 - Jun 14th, 2009 at 9:31am
 
Grendel wrote on Jun 12th, 2009 at 11:39am:
Antarctic temperatures disagree with climate model predictions

COLUMBUS , Ohio – A new report on climate over the world's southernmost continent shows that temperatures during the late 20th century did not climb as had been predicted by many global climate models.

Well - partly right. East Antarctica would be the last place on Earth you'd expect to find significant increases in temperature right now, because it's a landmass located on the pole.

Remember my previous post on Continental Drift during the late Ordovician?  The "as predicted by many global climate models" bit is an exaggeration. Most of the new climate models (fourth generation) are better now at polar latitudes than they were in the past.

The Antarctic peninsula however, has shown some of the biggest increases in temperature in the world.  

Remember April this year? The Larsen Iceshelf?

http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/IOTD/view.php?id=2288

Over the last five years, the shelf has lost a total of 5,700 square kilometers and is now about 40 percent the size of its previous minimum stable extent.
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Re: Model lessons...
Reply #112 - Jun 16th, 2009 at 1:10pm
 
http://www.manyworlds.com/exploreCO.aspx?coid=CO3120916131781
Quote:
Even as we struggle with serious global financial and economic difficulties, some people believe manmade global warming is a real problem of urgent concern. Perhaps this is because, almost every day, media outlets quote “experts” who predict that soaring temperatures, rising sea levels, increasing storms, prolonged droughts and other disasters will result from human activity.


Quote:
If it makes sense to enact measures to reduce CO2 emissions when experts forecast warming, then surely it also makes sense to emit extra CO2 when experts forecast cooling. Or perhaps not.
Perhaps any link between climate change and carbon dioxide is not so strong or important. Consider the historical record.

The tiny fraction of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere increased through the twentieth century. And yet, during that time, global average temperatures rose till about 1940, fell till about 1975, rose again till 1998, and then dropped away again. It is not surprising, then, that despite claims “the science is settled,” thousands of scientists disagree with forecasts of dangerous manmade global warming.


Quote:
The models employed by James Hansen and the IPCC are not based on scientific forecasting principles. There is no empirical evidence that they provide long-term forecasts that are as accurate as forecasting that global average temperatures won’t change. Hansen’s, and the IPCC’s, forecasts, and the recommendations based on them, should be ignored.


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muso
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Re: Model lessons...
Reply #113 - Jun 16th, 2009 at 1:24pm
 
The tiny fraction of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere increased through the twentieth century. And yet, during that time, global average temperatures rose till about 1940, fell till about 1975, rose again till 1998, and then dropped away again. It is not surprising, then, that despite claims “the science is settled,” thousands of scientists disagree with forecasts of dangerous manmade global warming.
History again provides useful guidance.


We've already covered the very imaginative interpretation of this particular chestnut.

Why would global temperatures rise and fall???

Have a think about it.

While you're thinking about it, take a look at this site. It might just give you a hint. Look carefully of the graph of solar irradiance.

If you're actually going to listen this time, Grendel, I'll even explain how it was derived - but I doubt if you're interested.

Yes - when the "sun" is hot, the temperatures go up. When the "sun" is not and the temperatures still go up - that's the time you need to sit up and take notice.

Why do you think the red curve follows the blue curve so well ?

http://www.mps.mpg.de/en/projekte/sun-climate/

Hey - and I'll tell you something else - It's colder at night than it is during the day. The CO2 level in the atmosphere is pretty much the same during day and night, so why do you suppose that might be????

hmmm?
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« Last Edit: Jun 16th, 2009 at 1:33pm by muso »  

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Grendel
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Re: Model lessons...
Reply #114 - Jun 17th, 2009 at 8:01pm
 
yawn your are a patronising ratbag aren't you... 
must be that ego.
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Happy
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Re: Model lessons...
Reply #115 - Jun 17th, 2009 at 8:55pm
 
muso wrote on Jun 16th, 2009 at 1:24pm:
..
Hey - and I'll tell you something else - It's colder at night than it is during the day. The CO2 level in the atmosphere is pretty much the same during day and night, so why do you suppose that might be????

hmmm?



I know that you are not really asking, but if you do it is Sun effect, cloud cover or not some energy makes through.

As to CO2, suppose not much change means that almost every living organism using O2 at night do not exhale that much CO2 to be measurable.

Good news should we hit the complete dust cover for prolonged time when O2 producers would not be able to perform.

I wander how long would oxygen last?
Humans must have more than 16% O2 to be able to live so there is only about 5% of usable Oxygen for us.
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Re: Model lessons...
Reply #116 - Jun 24th, 2009 at 9:25am
 
Happy - yes, atmospheric oxygen is slowly depleting, but we have far more imminent problems than that.

People can go on about geological time and climate variations until the cows come home.

The whole issue about sorting out this mess is not really about trees and whales and endangered species and all the feel-good deep green environmental issues.

It's more about the fact that we have a precariously high global population, and that we don't have enough time to adapt to higher temperatures, decreased calcification rates in major food chain ocean species, reduced water supply from non-polar glaciers, impact on crops yields from higher average temperatures and the rest.

The imminent crisis is about averting human catastrophe on a major scale. It's not really about saving nice fluffy polar bears.   

You might say - ok let's reduce world population. Good idea - how?

The main carbon emitters are in the developed world. The main victims will initially be in poorer countries.
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