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Optional preferential voting (Read 55116 times)
Grendel
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Re: Optional preferential voting
Reply #45 - Nov 21st, 2008 at 4:25pm
 
lets make this simple for you fd.

lets say there are 3 candidates and the result is "a"-100 votes, "b"-99 votes and "c"-98votes.  Lets say everyone who votes for "c" only votes for "c". Then "A" scrapes in.  

But in mandatory preferences it could be that "c"'s 2nd pref is "a"20 and "b"78.  Then "b" gets in by 77 votes.  Now dont try to tell me it makes no difference

In op voting both parties "a" and "b" get a kick in the pants and "a" just gets in...  the seat is very marginal...  the party has to work very hard to maintain the seat and to convince those who didn't vote for them to vote for them next time,  Similarly "b" has to work very hard for the "C" votes as well.

In mandatory "B" thinks it romped it in...  oh dear.

it could also work the other way as well where now we get situations where the candidate with the most primary votes or FIRST PREFERENCES gets swamped by preferences form all other parties going to someone else.  Where clearly the FIRST PREFERENCE for everyone in that seat is not elected.
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« Last Edit: Nov 21st, 2008 at 4:35pm by Grendel »  
 
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freediver
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Re: Optional preferential voting
Reply #46 - Nov 21st, 2008 at 4:34pm
 
Quote:
But in mandatory preferences it could be that "c"'s 2nd pref is "a"20 and "b"78.  Then "b" gets in by 77 votes.  Now dont try to tell me it makes no difference


I'm not saying it makes no difference. I'm saying that the voters are better off because of it. Those 78 voters preferred candidate B to candidate A. Thus they improved their outcome by ranking candidates. It did not cost candidate C anything.

It is 57 votes, not 77.

60% of voters think candidate B is a better choice than candidate A. Thus the outcome is a better reflection of the will of the people than the OPV scenario where people do not vote. But that is obvious. If people don't vote, then the outcome will be less likely to reflect what they want.

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In op voting both parties "a" and "b" get a kick in the pants


This is no different to CPV.

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the seat is very marginal...
 

The seat is marginal either way.

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In mandatory "B" thinks it romped it in...


Grin Only if B is deluded.
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Grendel
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Re: Optional preferential voting
Reply #47 - Nov 21st, 2008 at 4:36pm
 
You know life would be much simpler if you could just admit you were wrong in the first place.  Smiley

Ahhhhh 98-20=78
78-1=77

hmmmm  Roll Eyes
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freediver
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Re: Optional preferential voting
Reply #48 - Nov 21st, 2008 at 4:37pm
 
That would be a lie.
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Grendel
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Re: Optional preferential voting
Reply #49 - Nov 21st, 2008 at 4:38pm
 
Only to the deluded.
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freediver
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Re: Optional preferential voting
Reply #50 - Nov 21st, 2008 at 4:48pm
 
OK then, have another go at thinking up a specific example where people are better off under OPV. Surely if it is better then you could demonstrate with one example. I guarantee you can't.

Grendel wrote on Nov 21st, 2008 at 4:36pm:
Ahhhhh 98-20=78
78-1=77

hmmmm  Roll Eyes


B did not win 78 votes to 1. Do the actual maths. Don't take silly shortcuts.
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Grendel
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Re: Optional preferential voting
Reply #51 - Nov 21st, 2008 at 5:01pm
 
lol

Well considering your other logic, thought I might sell you a bridge.

Yes its 57...  lol  can't fool you eh.  Roll Eyes
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freediver
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Re: Optional preferential voting
Reply #52 - Nov 21st, 2008 at 5:06pm
 
Now that we've got that little detail sorted out, how about you go back to trying to come up with a single example where people are better off under OPV?
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Grendel
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Re: Optional preferential voting
Reply #53 - Nov 21st, 2008 at 5:21pm
 
good grief well whoever "loses" isn't going to think they are better off under any system.

Oh and BTW the 57 vote margin in no way has anything to do with the logic of my or illogic of your argument...  so lets not try that one on eh fd.

57 votes would still be a hefty margin in any election of that size  almost 20% of the vote...  oh dear.  Now don't go and try to make something big about that either.

THE POINT IS>>>>  MANDATORY PREFERENCES DISTORT THE VOTE.  MANDATORY PREFERENCES CAN SEND VOTES TO PEOPLE UNINTENDED BY THE VOTER.  A point already backed up by Muso.
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freediver
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Re: Optional preferential voting
Reply #54 - Nov 21st, 2008 at 5:26pm
 
This article lists several of the flaws with OPV:

http://www.ozpolitic.com/electoral-reform/optional-preferential-voting.html

In addition, it causes many voters to accidentally vote informally in federal elections. This, combined with the different meaning to the same voting method in the senate, makes it far too confusing. People can not be expected to understand the three different ways that 'vote 1' can be interpretted.

So why do people support OPV? They fall into one or more of the following groups:

1) They mistakenly think OPV will benefit the minor parties.

2) They support the major parties and fear the minor parties. They want to give the major parties an unfair advantage over the minor parties. They can do so by taking advantage of the ignorance of group 1.

3) The want to make voting completely optional, but settle for OPV as second best because the public rejects optional voting. OPV has a better chance of getting through because groups 1 and 2 will support it.

4) They support first past the post voting, but settle for OPV as second best because the public rejects first past the post voting. With OPV, they can take advantage of the voting patterns of group 1 to achieve the same outcome. Again, they can take advantage of the other groups of supporters to get the change through.

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good grief well whoever "loses" isn't going to think they are better off under any system.


So?

Quote:
Oh and BTW the 57 vote margin in no way has anything to do with the logic of my or illogic of your argument...  so lets not try that one on eh fd.


I already suggested we move on. I have no intention of embarassing you even further with it.

Quote:
THE POINT IS>>>>  MANDATORY PREFERENCES DISTORT THE VOTE.


No they don't. Which is why you have given up on specific examples and gone back to broad generalisations. You dipped your toe in the waters of rationality but didn't like the temperature.

Quote:
MANDATORY PREFERENCES CAN SEND VOTES TO PEOPLE UNINTENDED BY THE VOTER.


No they can't. At least, not if people rank the candidates in order of preference. In fact it is OPV that has the unintended consequences, as I explained with the 3 different ways that 'vote 1' can be interpretted.
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Grendel
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Re: Optional preferential voting
Reply #55 - Nov 21st, 2008 at 6:00pm
 
ROTFLMAO

There are none so blind fd.

Even my small examples prove the points.  Cheesy

Now it's time for me to really stop this crap...  because after 2 shots at it years apart...  I'm just a bit sick of it.
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muso
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Re: Optional preferential voting
Reply #56 - Nov 21st, 2008 at 8:24pm
 
freediver wrote on Nov 21st, 2008 at 5:26pm:
No they can't. At least, not if people rank the candidates in order of preference. In fact it is OPV that has the unintended consequences, as I explained with the 3 different ways that 'vote 1' can be interpretted.


Once you get down to 5th or 6th preference, it is obvious that the voter (most voters) don't really want to vote for those parties. To give that vote an equal weighting as a first preference vote is distorting the result.

The point is that with Mandatory Preferential Voting, it's not a question of just putting them in order of preference, you have no choice but contribute to voting a major party past the post, especially in a marginal seat which is where I vote. There is no escape. You have to effectively vote for one major party or the other. By the way, I never follow how to vote cards. I prefer to think for myself.


The only way you can get around that is with OPV. A lot of people I know have complained about the Federal system here in Qld for that reason.
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« Last Edit: Nov 21st, 2008 at 8:29pm by muso »  

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freediver
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Re: Optional preferential voting
Reply #57 - Nov 21st, 2008 at 8:59pm
 
Quote:
Even my small examples prove the points.


Actually, they proved mine.

Quote:
Once you get down to 5th or 6th preference, it is obvious that the voter (most voters) don't really want to vote for those parties. To give that vote an equal weighting as a first preference vote is distorting the result.


No it isn't distorting the result. The fact that a person would have preferred a number of people who are no longer candidates to any of the candidates in an election should not reduce the value of their vote. What you are effectively saying is that people who support minor parties are not as important.

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The point is that with Mandatory Preferential Voting, it's not a question of just putting them in order of preference


Yes it is. That is exactly what it is.

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you have no choice but contribute to voting a major party past the post


You do not contribute to the success of that party over your preferred party. You only ever contribute to the success of a candidate over candidates you consider worse. Your vote cannot possibly work against your interest. This is a fundamental misunderstanding of preferential voting. Basically, you are confusing being forced to vote in a runoff election with a small number of candidates with causing those small number of candidates to be the only ones remaining. This is where you need to get more specific, rather than speaking in broad generalisations. In any election, you can only vote for people who are actually on the ballot. It is merely that same dillemma, just repeated a few times. It is only repeated because there are multiple elections.

Quote:
You have to effectively vote for one major party or the other.


If there are only two people in an election, you have to vote for one of them. This is not a flaw in democracy. You cannot spit the dummy and say you only want to vote for someone who isn't a candidate. That's not how it works. That's all it is. Don't let the fact that you rank candidates mislead you into thinking it is a different problem.

Grendel tried. Now it's your turn. Rather than speaking in broad generalisations, try to give a specific example of how your vote can work against your interest. Just like Grendel, you will find this apparently simple task impossible. Then you will understand why you are wrong.
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Grendel
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Re: Optional preferential voting
Reply #58 - Nov 21st, 2008 at 9:42pm
 
Grendel succeeded as has Muso...  seems to me you're the only one that doesn't get it fd.
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Re: Optional preferential voting
Reply #59 - Nov 22nd, 2008 at 7:20am
 
OK. Here is a simplified explanation:

Mandatory Preferential Voting:

Candidate A gets 95 primary votes
Candidate B gets 105 primary votes

For the sake of the argument, let's not worry about Candidate C. The voters gave equal preferences (5) to each of the major parties.

Of the remainder of the voters, 45 put candidate A as 5th preference and 30 put candidate B as 4th preference. These voters don't really want either of the two to win, but are forced  to put them in some kind of order, so they put them last.

Candidate A gets  95 + 5+ 45 = 145
Candidate B gets  105 + 5 +30 = 140

Candidate A wins, and we have 75 disgruntled people who would rather not have helped either of them win. On primary votes, he would have lost.

Optional Preferential Voting

Those people who don't want to vote for either A or B don't allocate them any preferences. They vote for either C D or E.

Result - Candidate B wins, and we have 75 people who might not like the result, but are at least are comfortable in the knowledge that they had no part in his election.

Now you're going to say that you can look inside the minds of these 75 people and say that they could have put the preferences the other way round, and that they mostly wanted to vote in a major party as a last resort. With OPV, you don't have to look inside their minds.
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