ex-member DonaldTrump wrote on Feb 23
rd, 2007 at 4:08am:
Simple question, which country do you think is the biggest threat to Australian society from abroad? Ie. Which do you think is most likely to declare war?
Mine is Indonesia. -Islamic, therefore unpredictable and dangerous.
Define the term "threat", please.
If by "threat" you mean is capable of mounting a direct, conventional military attack on Australia, then I'd suggest no nation, except the US at the present time has the ability to do this. Indonesia lacks the material and economic means to undertake it. It is a disunited, economic basket-case which is far more concerned with its own internal divisions than seeking to attack Australia militarily. You must also ask the question "why" as in "why would they bother?" There is nothing that Australia possesses which Indonesia doesn't already have, as far material resources are concerned.
If by "threat" you mean is capable of mounting an indirect conventional military attack against Australia's interests, then again I'd suggest we have little to fear from Indonesia. China, on the otherhand, is shaping up to be a much more potential although still distant (in time and geography) threat. The PRC's recent decision to massively increase its defence spending is particularly worrisome. However, I would suggest that the PRC's intentions still remain obscure but there are at least three main areas of tension which are potential flashpoints with them. India - the PRC and India still remain at war and hold large swarths of each other's territory in the Himalayas. Considering the antagonism which exists between India and Pakistan over Kashmir, it is possible to see a conflict between them escalate to one between India and China. If that was to occur, it might be possible to see the PLAN attempt a foray into the Indian Ocean to relieve Indian pressure on Pakistan with the cominsurate possibility of the Indian Navy resisting them. This could lead to us becoming involved because of the Five Power Defence Agreement with Malaysia which might resent having two fleets fighting it out, either side of the Isthmas of Kra as they attempt to force the Straits of Malacca. Another flashpoint is the South China Sea, where Malaysia and Indonesia might drag us into conflict with the PRC over oil. Finally, there is of course Taiwan, where our alliance with the US could see us dragged in.
If by "threat" you mean attacks by non-state actors, such as Terrorists, then I'd suggest the potential for damage to Australia is relatively limited and while the primary threat is one presented by Islamist Terrorists, they are not exclusively confined to Indonesia. I would also suggest that the recent arrival of 82 Sri Lankan boatpeople on our shores and the involvement of the LTTE in their plight could potentially result in problems coming from that source.
Longer term, I would suggest that the rising of India and the PRC present potential problems to our strategic interests (already somewhat outlined above) in our region.
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Which country is the biggest threat to Oz? (Read 37683 times)
