2024 election odds: Bets on Donald Trump jump as Kamala Harris lags in battleground polls
Portrait of Jim SergentJim Sergent
USA TODAY

Offshore bettors continue to drive up the probability that former President Donald Trump will win the 2024 presidential election because they predict he has a better chance of winning battleground states such as Pennsylvania.

As of Friday at 7 a.m. ET, Trump's probability of winning topped 60% on Polymarket, a crypto trading platform. Those are about the odds that markets gave him when President Joe Biden dropped out of the race. Betfair Exchange, the biggest U.K. peer-to-peer betting platform, predicted on its temperature gauge Friday morning that Trump was on the brink of "likely win." Presidential election betting can't be done legally in the U.S.

National polling aggregated by Real Clear Politics still shows a much less emphatic picture: Vice President Kamala Harris has led by nearly 2 percentage points since Harris and Trump debated on Sept. 10, but Harris has narrowly trailed in battleground-state polling throughout October.


Who's ahead in the presidential race?The polls and odds are changing. What they say now

Trump's odds of winning rise as his lead widens in battleground polling

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So are bettors seeing something that pollsters aren't? Polymarket warned Tuesday in its weekly "Oracle" newsletter that big differences in betting markets aren't the same as wide margins in polling:

"While Trump’s lead is the largest it has been since the summer, it’s important not to overstate its significance. A 55-45 prediction market edge is not nearly as strong as a five-point polling lead," the newsletter said. "Small moves in the polls are magnified into large swings in the odds."

Christ, you're a f**king idiot

The accounts betting big on Trump—Fredi9999, Theo4, PrincessCaro, and Michie—were all funded by deposits from Kraken, a U.S.-based crypto exchange, according to Arkham. They behave in a similar fashion, systematically placing frequent bets on Trump and stepping up the size of their bets at the same time, Arkham found. The oldest of the accounts was created in June, while the newest was created this month.


The accounts have plowed most of their money into straightforward bets on Trump’s winning the presidency, but they have also put millions of dollars into bets that he will win such swing states as Pennsylvania, as well as long-shot bets on Trump’s winning the popular vote—smaller side markets also available on Polymarket.

Christ, you're a f**king idiot

The accounts betting big on Trump—Fredi9999, Theo4, PrincessCaro, and Michie—were all funded by deposits from Kraken, a U.S.-based crypto exchange, according to Arkham. They behave in a similar fashion, systematically placing frequent bets on Trump and stepping up the size of their bets at the same time, Arkham found. The oldest of the accounts was created in June, while the newest was created this month.


The accounts have plowed most of their money into straightforward bets on Trump’s winning the presidency, but they have also put millions of dollars into bets that he will win such swing states as Pennsylvania, as well as long-shot bets on Trump’s winning the popular vote—smaller side markets also available on Polymarket.

Only 17 days till Trump wins.

Marla wrote on Oct 19^th, 2024 at 7:45am:



hi walter mitty

you pretend to be a 20 yo female pot head but you actually seem more like a 60 yo fat democrat hack .

why else would you know propaganda like the crap you justed posted

hmmmm?????

Marla wrote on Oct 19^th, 2024 at 7:45am:


Just so. The Wall Street Journal is correct. The betting markets are now being manipulated by cashed-up crypto denizens.

They're out-botting the bots. Imagine money launderers so desperate to get their man in, they'll pour bucketloads of their own Etherium away, just to rig the betting odds.

This signifies the Trump campaign to a tee. No debating policies or persuading people, just manipulating numbers so you can boast that you've won.

While Karmala's out doing rallies and even Fox interviews, her nemesis is sitting in his country club with Deep State elites like Peter Thiel, plotting deep fake hacks like this.

Ever get the feeling you've been cheated?

Karnal wrote on Oct 19^th, 2024 at 1:23pm:



Marla is Walter Mitty -

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Walter_Mitty

The character's name has come into more general use to refer to an ineffectual dreamer
and appears in several dictionaries.[2] The American Heritage Dictionary defines a Walter Mitty as "an ordinary,
often ineffectual person who indulges in fantastic daydreams of personal triumphs"

In the brief snatches of reality that punctuate Mitty's fantasies,
the reader meets well-meaning but insensitive strangers who
inadvertently rob Mitty of some of his remaining dignity.