Canada holds the cards in this trade war with Trump, and here is why America cannot win it.
Trump picked a fight with the one country that supplies what the United States cannot replace. Canadian crude is 73 percent of what Midwest refineries run. Those refineries were built for heavy Canadian oil and they cannot switch. Cut the supply and American gas prices go up.
About 80 percent of American potash comes from Canada. Potash is fertilizer. There is no domestic replacement at that scale, so American farmers grow less and pay more.
Canada supplies roughly 60 percent of the aluminum Americans use. The United States produces 675,000 tonnes a year and burns through 4 million.
Then there is the water. Every ship moving between Lake Erie and Lake Ontario passes through the eight locks of the Welland Canal. All eight are Canadian. Nothing moves without them.
Trump says America does not need Canada. The evidence says otherwise. The United States has the larger economy for now, but Canada controls the inputs and the locks. Americans will pay at the gas pump, at the hardware store, on the farm, and at the factory gate.
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