China gains major edge on U.S. amid Iran war, intelligence report finds
A confidential U.S. intelligence analysis details how China is exploiting the war in Iran to maximise its advantage over the United States across military, economic, diplomatic and other fields, said two U.S. officials who have read the report.
The assessment, the officials said, was produced this week for the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, Gen. Dan Caine, and has raised alarm within the Pentagon about the geopolitical costs of Washington’s standoff with Tehran as President Donald Trump enters high-stakes talks with Chinese President Xi Jinping in Beijing.
Produced by the Joint Staff’s intelligence directorate, the report uses what’s known as a “DIME” framework to assess China’s response to the Iran conflict via four instruments of state power: diplomatic, informational, military and economic.
Officials talked about the finding, which has not previously been reported, on the condition of anonymity to discuss U.S. intelligence matters.
Since the U.S. and Israel initiated the Iran war on Feb. 28, China has sold weapons to Persian Gulf allies of the U.S. as they struggled to defend their military bases and oil infrastructure from Iranian missile and drone attacks, the report says.
Beijing has also assisted countries around the world struggling to meet their energy needs after the U.S.-Israeli attacks prompted Iran to close the Strait of Hormuz, a corridor for the transport of one-fifth of the world’s oil and gas.
The war has also drained the U.S. of massive stocks of munitions that would be critical in a potential standoff with China over the fate of Taiwan, the report notes. The Iran conflict, which has resulted in the damage or destruction of U.S. military hardware and facilities throughout the Middle East, has allowed Beijing to observe how the U.S. fights wars and learn how to plan its own future operations.
The report notes that Beijing has incorporated popular criticisms of the war into its public messaging, labeling the conflict “illegal.” China has long sought to undermine the image of the U.S. as a responsible steward of the rules-based international order, and it views the Iran conflict as emblematic of Washington’s cavalier approach to military hostilities.
When asked about the finding, the Pentagon’s chief spokesman, Sean Parnell, said, “Assertions claiming the global balance of power have shifted towards any nation other than the United States of America are fundamentally false.”
White House spokeswoman Olivia Wales said the U.S. “decimated the Iranian regime’s military capabilities in 38 short days and is now strangling what’s left of their economy with one of the most successful naval blockades in history.”
“The United States military is the greatest fighting force on the globe with unmatched power on display for the entire world to see,” she added.
In a statement, Chinese Embassy spokesperson Liu Pengyu said Beijing is committed to “promoting peace, and working to de-escalate the situation.” “The pressing priority now is to prevent by all means a relapse in fighting, rather than exploit the situation to throw mud at other countries,” he said.
Experts said the finding provides new insights on China’s reaction to the war, such as its provision of weapons to U.S. allies, while reinforcing the growing consensus that the conflict is tilting the balance of power in Beijing’s favor.
“On balance, the war in Iran is massively improving China’s geopolitical position,” said Jacob Stokes, a senior fellow at the Center for a New American Security.
The timing of the report is particularly sensitive as Trump begins multiple days of meetings in Beijing aimed at rebalancing the relationship between the world’s two largest economies.
The summit, which was postponed in March because of the Iran war, comes as Trump’s envoys struggle to find a resolution that will reopen the strait and resolve U.S. concerns about Iran’s nuclear program.
Trump’s standing, domestically and worldwide, has been weakened because of the public’s dissatisfaction with the conflict and the significant damage it has done to the global economy.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2026/05/13/china-gains-major-ed...
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