Defence spending to lift by $53 billion over the next decade as government warns of 'intensifying' risks

ABC News.
Wed 15 Apr
In short:
An additional $53 billion will go into Australia's defence capabilities over the next decade, under plans to be released today.
The government will publish the latest National Defence Strategy, which charts the strategic risks the country faces and the funding needed to meet those challenges.
What's next?
The government says defence spending will climb to 3 per cent of GDP by 2033 under NATO measurements, as it faces pressure from abroad on spending.
Australia's defence spending will climb by $53 billion over the next decade as the federal government says it responds to "intensifying" global risks.
That injection includes a $14 billion lift in spending over the next four years.
The federal government will tomorrow release the 2026 National Defence Strategy (NDS), which aims to map out both the strategic landscape Australia is facing and the capabilities defence will require to meet those future challenges.
The government claims the new funding will take Australian defence spending to roughly 3 per cent of GDP by 2033 when measured using NATO's methodology, which includes defence-adjacent spending in areas like pensions.
The last NDS, released in 2024, warned of increasing strategic competition between the United States and China and of an unprecedented military build-up in the Indo-Pacific.
Recent conflicts have also had a heavy influence on the new strategy, particularly the conflict in the Middle East and the ongoing war in Ukraine.
Australian defence force 2024-10-22 11:10:00
Australia faces the most threatening strategic circumstances since World War II, according to the defence minister.
In a speech to be delivered later today excerpts of which have been provided to the ABC, Defence Minister Richard Marles will say those trends identified in 2024 are only worsening.
"[The strategy] affirms that Australia faces its most complex and threatening strategic circumstances since the end of World War II," the excerpts read.
"International norms that once constrained the use of force and military coercion continue to erode.
"More countries are engaged in conflict today than at any time since the end of World War II, and this is occurring across every region of the world.
"In the face of this, the Albanese Government is pursuing every avenue of increasing defence capability quickly: mostly through bigger defence appropriations but also through accessing private capital."
Building a bigger budget
The $53 billion increase in spending takes into account some projects that have already been announced, including $12 billion towards the upgrade to the Henderson shipyards in Western Australia.
The facility will be used to dock and maintain nuclear-powered submarines under AUKUS and construct Mogami-class frigates in the future.
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A large military drone in a hangar.Australia's sovereign defence industry.
It also includes between $2 billion and $5 billion on new investments into drone technology, as revealed earlier this week.
The bulk of the additional spending is due towards the back end of the coming decade, like $8.7 billion in 2033-34, and $9.8 billion in 2034-35.
The government has been under pressure from the US to lift its defence spending as a share of GDP, as it places similar pressure on other NATO allies.
At a meeting in Singapore last year, US Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth told Mr Marles the US wanted to see a lift to 3.5 per cent of GDP.
Australian defence spending has typically been measured at roughly 2 per cent of GDP and forecast to rise to 2.33 per cent by 2033.
But the government has more recently argued that if Australia's defence bill is to be compared to other countries, NATO's methodology for measuring defence spending should be used.
Under that measurement — which includes some pensions for retired Australian Defence Force members, defence-related funding in other portfolios, housing subsidies for defence personnel and more — the government says defence spending as a share of GDP will climb from 2.8 per cent now, to 3 per cent in 2033.
'Reprioritisations' and 'alternative financing'
Not all of the increased spending will appear on government books when the budget is handed down next month.
The increased spending is expected to be partly funded through the sale of high-value defence real estate, as flagged last year.
But some will also come through what the government is calling "alternative financing", which might include taking equity stakes in companies or investing in government-business enterprises.
The government has also flagged "reprioritisations" within the plans to be released today, but details on what exactly is being axed, cut back or delayed are not yet known.