The Male Lesbian Gaze wrote on Apr 8
th, 2026 at 9:50am:
He's going to end up getting the same deal Obama made and he tore up.
He won't even be able to get that deal, not anymore.
Trump didn't fail to get a deal, he had something on the table that, by most credible accounts, was at least comparable to, if not more concessional than, the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action that he tore up in the first place. And instead of taking the win, he pivoted to bombs, likely under directly from Israel because they were about to lose any future justification to attack Iran as they were willing to give up their nuclear material, again.
That decision matters, because it doesn't just kill that deal, it poisons the well permanently.
You don't get to walk away from an agreement, reapply maximum pressure, escalate to military action while talks are still active, and then expect the other side to come back offering the same terms like nothing happened, especially after you've murdered those you were negotiating with. That's not how state actors behave, that's how you burn credibility in real time.
And now the strategic landscape is fundamentally worse for the US.
Iran has every incentive to harden its position, not soften it. Trust is gone, leverage is different, and the cost of compliance has skyrocketed. If they move to assert control over the Strait of Hormuz more aggressively, whether through tolling mechanisms or by pushing transactions away from USD, that's not some irrational escalation, that's a rational response to being shown that concessions don't buy security.
So saying that he'll just get Obama's deal back" is missing the point entirely.
That deal existed in a completely different reality, one where the US could still be treated as a somewhat reliable counterparty. That reality is gone. You don't get a reset after demonstrating that even maximal concessions can be met with military force anyway.
At best, what comes next is a colder, more transactional arrangement on worse terms for everyone involved. At worst, there is no deal at all, just a long-term shift toward fragmentation, higher risk, and a global system that is a little less centred on US power than it was before he decided to pull the trigger.
All thanks to TRUMP.