SadKangaroo
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Not sad, just paying attention to how cooked it is
Posts: 22166
Meeanjin (Brisbane)
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There is no 4D chess here, there is no plan, at least not with Iran.
Donald Trump was the first President too feeble to stand up to Israel, he took them at their word that it would only last four days, and now the United States is fully committed without any coherent strategy, led by a leader who is incapable of negotiating without being in a position of strength, which the United States emphatically is not right now, and his incompetence and ego are inflicting damage across the entire globe.
He and the Secretary of Defence have systematically removed senior generals who refuse to execute orders they consider unlawful, and at best now we have to hope Republicans will support invoking the 25th Amendment.
At worst, Trump has been executing all the familiar moves that suggest the next step could be a coup by him.
There is a checklist that political scientists who study democratic collapse have been using for decades to assess basket cases overseas.
Trump is ticking every box.
Purging senior military leadership and replacing them with loyalists, Firing the lawyers who enforce military law, Ignoring court orders, Co‑opting intelligence agencies, Deploying troops domestically, Gutting the civil service, Delegitimising elections before they happen.
None of this is new, it is just new here.
Every single one of the following leaders ran a comparable playbook before their country ceased being what it used to be:
Saddam Hussein, Iraq, Adolf Hitler, Germany, Joseph Stalin, Soviet Union, Muammar Gaddafi, Libya, Hugo Chávez and Nicolás Maduro, Venezuela, Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, Turkey, Viktor Orbán, Hungary, Nayib Bukele, El Salvador, Alberto Fujimori, Peru, Louis‑Napoléon, France, Kais Saied, Tunisia.
The through‑line in every case was the same, remove independent military leadership, install personal loyalty at the top, and the institution that could have stopped you no longer will.
Three separate global democracy indices have now formally downgraded the United States, with some academic data series indicating a shift into a less democratic regime type and others noting substantial declines in democratic quality. For example, the Polity dataset, a long‑running political regime ranking, has labelled the United States an "anocracy" following recent events, describing an "Adverse Regime Change event" placing it close to autocracy.
That is the same methodology used in assessments of countries with significant democratic backsliding.
The courts are still pushing back, but his disregard for them is well documented.
That is the one institution still standing, so watch what happens to them next.
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