Australian Politics Forum - Iran what next?

tallowood Gold Member Offline Израиль Навсегда Posts: 7702 Gender:	Re: Iran what next? Reply #645 - Apr 24^th, 2026 at 9:03am
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tallowood

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Re: Iran what next?
Reply #646 - Apr 24^th, 2026 at 9:08am

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President Trump is giving Iran's warring factions a short window to unify behind a coherent counter-offer — or the ceasefire he extended Tuesday ends, three U.S. officials tell Axios.

"Trump is willing to give another three to five days of ceasefire to allow the Iranians to get their poo together," one U.S. source briefed on the matter said. "It is not going to be open-ended."

Why it matters: Trump's negotiators believe a deal to end the war and address what's left of Iran's nuclear program is still achievable. But they also worry they may not have anyone in Tehran empowered to say yes.

Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei is barely communicating. The IRGC generals now in control of the country and Iran's civilian negotiators are openly at odds over strategy.
"We saw that there is an absolute fracture inside Iran between the negotiators and the military — with neither side having access to the supreme leader, who is not responsive," a U.S. official said.

https://www.axios.com/2026/04/22/trump-iran-war-power-struggle-ceasefire

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MeisterEckhart

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Re: Iran what next?
Reply #647 - Apr 24^th, 2026 at 9:22am

With no evidence that the appointed supreme leader is even alive, and was probably killed along with his father and family, Iran is likely superficially a necrocracy with real power vested in the military.

The Iranian survival plan for a war with the US is the North Vietnamese plan: lose most, if not all, battles and absorb all US attacks... It was also the plan used by Washington's Continental Army against the British.

It was also the plan for both the Allies and the Germans in WW1, resulting in a virtual stalemate.

And it was also the British plan against the Germans in WW2, after Dunkirk and for the duration of the Battle of Britain.

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MeisterEckhart

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Re: Iran what next?
Reply #648 - Apr 24^th, 2026 at 9:25am

tallowood wrote on Apr 24^th, 2026 at 9:08am:

Quote:

President Trump is giving Iran's warring factions a short window to unify behind a coherent counter-offer — or the ceasefire he extended Tuesday ends, three U.S. officials tell Axios.

"Trump is willing to give another three to five days of ceasefire to allow the Iranians to get their poo together," one U.S. source briefed on the matter said. "It is not going to be open-ended."

Why it matters: Trump's negotiators believe a deal to end the war and address what's left of Iran's nuclear program is still achievable. But they also worry they may not have anyone in Tehran empowered to say yes.

Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei is barely communicating. The IRGC generals now in control of the country and Iran's civilian negotiators are openly at odds over strategy.
"We saw that there is an absolute fracture inside Iran between the negotiators and the military — with neither side having access to the supreme leader, who is not responsive," a U.S. official said.

https://www.axios.com/2026/04/22/trump-iran-war-power-struggle-ceasefire

The Trump administration is attempting a likely fraudulent Nixonian peace plan in an attempt to concoct a victory from its Epic Fury mission failures.

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tallowood Gold Member Offline Израиль Навсегда Posts: 7702 Gender:	Re: Iran what next? Reply #649 - Apr 24^th, 2026 at 10:00am Key US objectives declared at the start of the war were to stop Iran getting a nuclear weapon and degrading its arsenal. There is also goal of Hormuz traffic control, which probably is main goal in wider strategy game against China. It seems that the declared goals were only excuses to justify getting into the game.
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Leroy Gold Member Offline Australian Politics Posts: 4868 Gender:	Re: Iran what next? Reply #650 - Apr 24^th, 2026 at 10:13am Master-stroke by Trump. He is not putting boots on the ground in Iran, if Iran want to keep their ports open then they have to face the US navy. Ignore they blockade and they will collapse economically, try to force the blockade and they will be destroyed.
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greggerypeccary

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Re: Iran what next?
Reply #651 - Apr 24^th, 2026 at 10:15am

Islamabad, Pakistan — With peace talks stalled and US President Donald Trump offering no timeline for ending the war with Iran, the question on everyone’s lips is, who can withstand the pain inflicted by this war the longest? There is growing evidence that it’s Iran.

The rapist in the White House is losing his illegal war.

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GOP = Guardians Of Paedophiles

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MeisterEckhart

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Re: Iran what next?
Reply #652 - Apr 24^th, 2026 at 10:17am

tallowood wrote on Apr 24^th, 2026 at 10:00am:

Key US objectives declared at the start of the war were to stop Iran getting a nuclear weapon and degrading its arsenal.
There is also goal of Hormuz traffic control, which probably is main goal in wider strategy game against China. It seems that the declared goals were only excuses to justify getting into the game.

The thing is, all of those goals have been valid and actual goals of multiple US administrations.

Any one of them would be good enough for the US to use as an off-ramp from the war.

However, Iran is resisting the creation of a viable off-ramp.

What the US would need to do is take permanent control of the Hormuz Strait, which would require annexing/occupying Iranian territory. The US could transfer control of the land to a trusted Gulf state ally or create a broader allied coalition to jointly manage the Strait.

But, of course, capture of Iranian territory would never be forgiven by Iran or, likely, the majority of Iranian people, triggering permanent Iranian aggression and likely state and non-state-actor terrorism against any coalition state.

All allies and potential coalition partners know this and are refusing to partake in this US military adventure.

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MeisterEckhart

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Re: Iran what next?
Reply #653 - Apr 24^th, 2026 at 10:21am

Leroy wrote on Apr 24^th, 2026 at 10:13am:

Master-stroke by Trump. He is not putting boots on the ground in Iran, if Iran want to keep their ports open then they have to face the US navy. Ignore they blockade and they will collapse economically, try to force the blockade and they will be destroyed.

No, it's a grossly stupid move on Trump's part to have started a war with Iran...

The logistical reasons for not going to war with Iran have been evident to every US president and their administrations since Reagan... except Trump.

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Frank

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Re: Iran what next?
Reply #654 - Apr 24^th, 2026 at 10:37am

greggerypeccary wrote on Apr 24^th, 2026 at 10:15am:

Islamabad, Pakistan — With peace talks stalled and US President Donald Trump offering no timeline for ending the war with Iran, the question on everyone’s lips is, who can withstand the pain inflicted by this war the longest? There is growing evidence that it’s Iran.

IRGC agit-prop news - a.k.a. CNN

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« Last Edit: Apr 24^th, 2026 at 11:13am by Frank »

Estragon: I can’t go on like this.
Vladimir: That’s what you think.

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greggerypeccary

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Re: Iran what next?
Reply #655 - Apr 24^th, 2026 at 11:05am

[quote author=Frank link=1772336193/654#654 date=1776991039][quote author=greggerypeccary link=1772336193/651#651 date=1776989743]
[i]Islamabad, Pakistan — With peace talks stalled and US President Donald Trump offering no timeline for ending the war with Iran, the question on everyone’s lips is, who can withstand the pain inflicted by this war the longest? There is growing evidence that it’s Iran.[/i]

[/quote]

IRGC agit-prop news - a.k.a. CNN [/quote]

It's an objective assessment of the situation based solely on facts.

What colour is the sky in your world, Frank?

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GOP = Guardians Of Paedophiles

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Frank Gold Member Offline Australian Politics Posts: 57961 Gender:	Re: Iran what next? Reply #656 - Apr 24^th, 2026 at 11:13am Taliban Condemns Iran: ‘Not Fair’ to Bomb Muslim Gulf States
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lee Gold Member Offline Australian Politics Posts: 20615 Gender:	Re: Iran what next? Reply #657 - Apr 24^th, 2026 at 12:56pm
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lee Gold Member Offline Australian Politics Posts: 20615 Gender:	Re: Iran what next? Reply #658 - Apr 25^th, 2026 at 11:56am
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Baronvonrort

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Re: Iran what next?
Reply #659 - Apr 26^th, 2026 at 10:30pm

Quote:

BREAKING: The Islamic Republic once again accidentally confirms that MOJTABA KHAMENEI, is in fact dead.

They unveiled a mural of all the leaders that have been “martyred” in Mashhad, the birth city of the Khamenei’s.

They probably didn’t expect anyone would see this footage.

https://x.com/Savakzadeh/status/2048298846061490253

I guess that confirms the reports i posted 6-8 weeks ago that Motjaba is dead.

It also explains the mixed messages coming from Iran there is no official leader.

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Leftists and the Ayatollahs have a lot in common when it comes to criticism of Islam, they don't tolerate it.

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