Australian Politics Forum - Iran what next?

Captain Nemo Gold Member Offline Australian Politics Posts: 15163 Melbourne Gender:	Re: Iran what next? Reply #525 - Apr 8^th, 2026 at 9:27am So, today we see them stepping back from the brink. A 15 day ceasefire for negotiations to take place in Islamabad. One can hope I suppose. With Trump though, anything could happen.
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tallowood

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Re: Iran what next?
Reply #526 - Apr 8^th, 2026 at 9:37am

tallowood wrote on Apr 8^th, 2026 at 8:27am:

Israel struck eight sections of bridges and roads used by Iran to transport weapons and equipment to Tehran and several areas of the country.

The IDF stated that Iran used these crossings to transport weapons and military equipment, as well as to launch attacks against Israel and other Middle Eastern countries.

Measures were taken before the attack to reduce the risk of harm to civilians, including advance warnings, the use of precision weapons, and aerial surveillance.

The Bayat Bridge on the Tabriz-Zanjan highway was hit, disrupting traffic.

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Captain Nemo

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Re: Iran what next?
Reply #527 - Apr 8^th, 2026 at 11:33am

This reminds me a bit of Ali Hassan al-Majid - "Chemical Ali" during the Iraq war ....

In the lengthy statement issued in response to the ceasefire agreement,

Iran's Supreme National Security Council claimed "victory on the battlefield".

"Moreover, Iran has repeatedly rejected all deadlines proposed by the President of the United States and continues to emphasize that it attaches no importance to any deadlines set by the enemy," it said.

"We now give glad tidings to the great nation of Iran: nearly all the objectives of the war have been achieved, and your courageous children have brought the enemy to historic impotence and lasting defeat.

"It was decided that, to finalize the details, negotiations would take place in Islamabad, with a maximum timeframe of 15 days to consolidate Iran’s victory on the battlefield into political negotiations."

It added that the negotiations would be done with "complete distrust of the American side".

"If the enemy’s surrender on the battlefield turns into a decisive political achievement in the negotiations, we will celebrate this historic victory together.

"Otherwise, we will fight side by side on the battlefield until all the demands of the Iranian people are met. Our hands are on the trigger, and at the slightest misstep by the enemy, we will respond with full force."

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Frank Gold Member Offline Australian Politics Posts: 58108 Gender:	Re: Iran what next? Reply #528 - Apr 8^th, 2026 at 7:08pm Huge mistake. Keep bombing. There are pientg more military targets.
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Re: Iran what next?
Reply #529 - Apr 9^th, 2026 at 7:09am

Serious disagreements have emerged between Iran’s President Masoud Pezeshkian and IRGC chief-commander Ahmad Vahidi over how to manage the war and its damaging impact on people’s livelihoods and the economy, sources with knowledge of the matter told Iran International.

Pezeshkian has criticized the approach of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps regarding escalating tensions and continuing attacks on neighboring countries, warning about the economic consequences of the situation.
He has stressed that without a ceasefire, Iran’s economy could face total collapse within three weeks to one month.

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tallowood

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Re: Iran what next?
Reply #530 - Apr 9^th, 2026 at 7:48am

In Iran, unknown aircraft struck an oil refinery on Lavan Island (latest video) and an oil terminal on Siri Island. Apparently, one or more Gulf states, seeking to disrupt the ceasefire, were behind the strikes. According to media reports, the monarchies expressed dissatisfaction with the US ending its operations against Iran.

Confirming this theory, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps launched ballistic missiles and suicide drones toward several Gulf countries. In Kuwait, power plants and water treatment facilities were struck, and the UAE claimed to have repelled the Iranian attack.

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greggerypeccary Gold Member Offline Australian Politics Posts: 152424 Gender:	Re: Iran what next? Reply #531 - Apr 9^th, 2026 at 9:20am Frank wrote on Apr 8^th, 2026 at 7:08pm: Huge mistake. Keep bombing. There are pientg more military targets. Have they finished bombing all the schools already?
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Sir Grappler Truth Teller OAM

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Re: Iran what next?
Reply #532 - Apr 9^th, 2026 at 10:24am

tallowood wrote on Apr 9^th, 2026 at 7:09am:

Serious disagreements have emerged between Iran’s President Masoud Pezeshkian and IRGC chief-commander Ahmad Vahidi over how to manage the war and its damaging impact on people’s livelihoods and the economy, sources with knowledge of the matter told Iran International.

Pezeshkian has criticized the approach of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps regarding escalating tensions and continuing attacks on neighboring countries, warning about the economic consequences of the situation.
He has stressed that without a ceasefire, Iran’s economy could face total collapse within three weeks to one month.

It's frankily amazing that a house so hopelessly divided against itself could survive this long, but it is not alone. In China the ancient Emperor and Warlords system continues to prevail.... though most of you don't notice it.

When, for example a Chinese Navy General holds a dissenting view, he may well act on that view and not on a 'consensus' view of all the arms of government. HIS power is that of the Warlord.

In Gangster Capitalist Russia the same applies... they need a John Wick ... 'We are professionals, John' ......

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“Facts are stubborn things; and whatever may be our wishes, our inclinations, or the dictates of our passion, they cannot alter the state of facts and evidence.”
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Sir Grappler Truth Teller OAM

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Re: Iran what next?
Reply #533 - Apr 9^th, 2026 at 10:29am

tallowood wrote on Apr 9^th, 2026 at 7:48am:

In Iran, unknown aircraft struck an oil refinery on Lavan Island (latest video) and an oil terminal on Siri Island. Apparently, one or more Gulf states, seeking to disrupt the ceasefire, were behind the strikes. According to media reports, the monarchies expressed dissatisfaction with the US ending its operations against Iran.

Confirming this theory, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps launched ballistic missiles and suicide drones toward several Gulf countries. In Kuwait, power plants and water treatment facilities were struck, and the UAE claimed to have repelled the Iranian attack.

Well, when they've been rocketed and threatened for ages now, it's no wonder they seek a final solution to the Iran problem.

Can't say I blame them .. there is no lasting peace to be gained from the current negotiations which are one step forward and ten steps back, over and over. You need only look at the sheer lunacy of the half-wit Islamist minds, captured on film and in the maw of the government propaganda machine, 'rejoincing' over Iran's 'victory' by giving in to opening the Strait 90 minuts bfore bombing began, and then puttig it about that this 'victory' was not complete, and every single one of Iran's frankly bizarre demands still has to be met, includingf that it receive cashback for bombarding neighgbours.

I expect this 'ceasefire' to last as long as the paper it was written on.

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“Facts are stubborn things; and whatever may be our wishes, our inclinations, or the dictates of our passion, they cannot alter the state of facts and evidence.”
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Baronvonrort

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Re: Iran what next?
Reply #534 - Apr 9^th, 2026 at 11:59am

tallowood wrote on Apr 9^th, 2026 at 7:48am:

In Iran, unknown aircraft struck an oil refinery on Lavan Island (latest video) and an oil terminal on Siri Island. Apparently, one or more Gulf states, seeking to disrupt the ceasefire, were behind the strikes. According to media reports, the monarchies expressed dissatisfaction with the US ending its operations against Iran.

Confirming this theory, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps launched ballistic missiles and suicide drones toward several Gulf countries. In Kuwait, power plants and water treatment facilities were struck, and the UAE claimed to have repelled the Iranian attack.

UAE hit Levan payback for Iranian missile and drone attacks on UAE.

Gulf Arab states want Islamic regime in Iran removed.

Quote:

New footage shows hardline IRGC factions turning on each other, gathering outside regime buildings and chanting “death to the compromisers” over the ceasefire.

What began as internal dissent is now escalating into open threats against senior leadership, with hardliners rejecting negotiations and targeting officials tied to the deal.

https://x.com/TousiTVOfficial/status/2042015738211213511

It has been 40 days since Supreme Leader Khamenei was killed they still haven't buried him.

IRGC are too scared to attend public funeral for dictator

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Leftists and the Ayatollahs have a lot in common when it comes to criticism of Islam, they don't tolerate it.

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tallowood

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Re: Iran what next?
Reply #535 - Apr 9^th, 2026 at 12:32pm

Sir Grappler Truth Teller OAM wrote on Apr 9^th, 2026 at 10:24am:

tallowood wrote on Apr 9^th, 2026 at 7:09am:

Serious disagreements have emerged between Iran’s President Masoud Pezeshkian and IRGC chief-commander Ahmad Vahidi over how to manage the war and its damaging impact on people’s livelihoods and the economy, sources with knowledge of the matter told Iran International.

Pezeshkian has criticized the approach of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps regarding escalating tensions and continuing attacks on neighboring countries, warning about the economic consequences of the situation.
He has stressed that without a ceasefire, Iran’s economy could face total collapse within three weeks to one month.

It's frankily amazing that a house so hopelessly divided against itself could survive this long, but it is not alone. In China the ancient Emperor and Warlords system continues to prevail.... though most of you don't notice it.

When, for example a Chinese Navy General holds a dissenting view, he may well act on that view and not on a 'consensus' view of all the arms of government. HIS power is that of the Warlord.

In Gangster Capitalist Russia the same applies... they need a John Wick ... 'We are professionals, John' ......

Actually it is more like US where states often oppose the State.
Iranian military concept includes decentralization so they can continue fighting when central command is destroyed.

As for "Gangster Capitalist Russia" - that was 1990s and in 2000s was cured by Putin, that's why he is so popular with majority of Russian people.

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tallowood

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Re: Iran what next?
Reply #536 - Apr 9^th, 2026 at 12:38pm

Anyway back to Iran.

Quote:

The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps announced a new shipping route through the Strait of Hormuz because the previous route "may be dangerous due to the presence of naval mines."

The new shipping route is much closer to Iranian territorial waters and Larak Island, making it easier to monitor should the strait reopen.

https://t.me/Middle_East_Spectator/30705

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Re: Iran what next?
Reply #537 - Apr 9^th, 2026 at 3:29pm

A more detailed map of the events from the site of the rescue of the American pilot, the weapons operator of the downed Boeing F-15E Strike Eagle fighter jet. As can be seen, the Americans were operating in close proximity to Iran's critical Isfahan Nuclear Technology and Research Center, and the Iranians demonstrated a surprising inability to control the area and prevent the evacuation of two pilots, and then special forces personnel. All of this, of course, creates ample room for speculation that the Isfahan nuclear center was the real target of the American actions, although there is no evidence to support this.

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Daves2017

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Re: Iran what next?
Reply #538 - Apr 9^th, 2026 at 9:38pm

Personally I believe the USA has used up all it’s stockpiles of out of date ammunition and happily declared victory and sail home leaving some of their newer more deadly weapons with forces attached to Israel.

I have no idea ifa just and victory at war will help Trump in the USA midterms elections.

No idea.

We will never see fuel prices cheaper than they are now. In fact I will suggest a 20% rise by Christmas before they settle at the “ new normal “ benchmark price.

As we saw with Covid cost of living will sore and once the threat is gone prices will remain high and it will simply be the norm.

The Australian property market will be interesting.

I’m told it will collapse under cost of living pressures but personally believe old Albo will see an opportunity to bring in a couple of more million migrants to prop both the economy and his votes up why change when it’s working?.

Taxes will continue to increase along with tolls, fees, levies and what name they can call a tax without saying it’s a tax.

The judiciary and Federal politicians will most certainly receive a pay raise between July and next march.

I estimate conservatively between 4 and 8 %.

Life will go on.

The rich will get richer the poor poorer and after a very brief outrages everyone will just get on with life.

As it always has been and will be…..unless?!?

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After weeks of poor press regarding Albo ( and Scomo) poor management of fuel reserves and desperate for a major distraction.
Federal Police arrest Ben ( war criminal) Smith.
What Amazing timing?

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Baronvonrort

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Re: Iran what next?
Reply #539 - Apr 10^th, 2026 at 12:01am

1 out of 3 factions in Islamic Republic begged for ceasefire. 2 other hardline factions are now hunting down the pro-ceasefire side.

1 of the hardline factions in charge of IRGC Navy declared Hormuz closed. Then this morning, the pro-ceasefire faction from the government side said Hormuz is still open.

And the so called ‘reformist’ faction who communicated with Pakistan did confirm they are willing to discuss enriched uranium which was followed by Guardian Council then denying it and fighting with their own foreign ministry.

There is no central leadership calling the shots in Tehran.

Trumps actions in trying to negotiate a ceasefire appears to have caused extreme friction between hardline and reformist factions in Iran who are now fighting among themselves.
The hardliners are in the streets calling for death to those trying to negotiate a ceasefire.
Genius 4D chess move by Trump. Wink

The Iranians have used cardboard cutout for their new Supreme Leader who hasn't been seen in public since this war started.
Reports are saying he was brain dead and in a Coma

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mojtaba_001.jpg (87 KB | 3 )

Leftists and the Ayatollahs have a lot in common when it comes to criticism of Islam, they don't tolerate it.

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