ProudKangaroo
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The Sandstorm is coming 🎵Doo doo doo doo🎵
Posts: 21963
Meeanjin (Brisbane)
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I'm genuinely curious how anyone still backing this war thinks it actually ends.
Because from where I'm sitting, there are only three coherent pathways, and none of them look like "winning".
Option 1: Retreat - Donald Trump pulls out of Iran completely - The US effectively cedes the Middle East as a sphere of influence - Israel is left exposed, dealing with Iran, Hezbollah, and proxies on every border - The US projects weakness to rivals like Xi Jinping and Vladimir Putin - Confidence in the US dollar as the backbone of global energy trade takes a hit
Option 2: Boots on the ground - The US commits troops into Iran, a country of ~90 million people - Likely flashpoints like Kharg Island become immediate targets - We've already seen a 20-year war in Afghanistan against a far smaller population cost trillions - Iran has scale, terrain, a standing military, drones, and two decades of preparation - This doesn't end quickly, and it doesn't end cheaply, in either money or lives
Option 3: Nuclear escalation - The US resorts to nuclear strikes - You're now gambling with global annihilation - Both Vladimir Putin and Xi Jinping have made it clear they won't just sit on their hands - This isn't just global backlash, it's potentially the end of any stable international order - "Winning" becomes meaningless in that scenario
At this point, there isn't an obvious winning strategy, just varying degrees of damage control. Trump didn't enter this with a coherent endgame, and that vacuum is now being filled with escalation and wishful thinking.
And the economic side of this is being massively underplayed.
All the recent GDP data is pre-conflict escalation. The real impacts haven't even landed yet, and the US economy was already softening. Layer on top of that: - escalating tariffs with China - energy market instability tied to Iranian retaliation - supply chain disruptions - and structural job pressure from AI
You don't need a worst-case military outcome to trigger a serious downturn, the economic shock alone can do that.
So even if you strip away the most extreme scenarios, you're still left with a country walking into a likely recession under self-inflicted pressure.
That's the part I don't think supporters have a clean answer for.
Not just "what's the next move", but what's the exit, and what does the US actually look like on the other side of it?
Because from here, it doesn't look like strength, it looks like a slow bleed with no clear off-ramp.
It's scary to think of what will happen when the Trump recession hits while they are at war.
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