Daves2017 wrote on Feb 13^th, 2026 at 1:04pm:



While the teals have supported Milthorpe and would like her on side, is she really one of them? She spruiks about 'clean energy' but is she one of the Holmes a Court faithful?

LNP never again wrote on Feb 13^th, 2026 at 5:31pm:


You are a  broken record?

I have researched this Farrer country and it is now firmly on my bucket list to visit.

It sounds awesome!

I just need to find a road trip that avoids the violence of Moree and Australian Meth head capitals  Armidale & Tamworth  driving from QLD?

Help?

The census data shows a significant population of pretty cool, normal people.

It would seem a pretty awesome place to live or holiday.

Farrer has been a Liberal stronghold since the Liberals was formed.

Loyalty is definitely not a crime as far as I care. I actually respect it!

If they are going to change it will be for a teal ( the do nothing party) or a vibrant independent.

I just don’t believe the polls or media hype of one nation.

I think they will struggle to move from 6% to 10% of the vote in Farrer.

From what I have read the people of Farrer appear to be classic hard working Australians who vote for what ever is best for Australia rather then themselves.

The teals  ( the do nothing party) stand a chance given the backlash against the LNP sacking their member but I believe  the locals are way too grounded in reality  and  smart too believe one nation is the best option for them or Australia.

It's going to be an absolute nightmare this by-election.

Independent probably more likely to win, Nats and Libs at each other's throats, One Nation taking a slice of the vote.

Labor will NOT run a candidate.

As for 2028 ...


I reckon a fair whack of ALP seats could fall to One Nation or Independents.

The Libs could lose many also.


List of seats that could fall:

Government (94 seats)

Marginal (22)

Bean ACT David Smith ALP v IND 0.34
Bullwinkel WA Trish Cook ALP 0.51
Fremantle WA Josh Wilson ALP v IND 0.69
Menzies Vic Gabriel Ng ALP 1.08
Petrie Qld Emma Comer ALP 1.17
Solomon NT Luke Gosling ALP 1.31
Bendigo Vic Lisa Chesters ALP v NAT 1.40
Wills Vic Peter Khalil ALP v GRN 1.43
Forde Qld Rowan Holzberger ALP 1.77
Banks NSW Zhi Soon ALP 2.39
Deakin Vic Matt Gregg ALP 2.82
Moore WA Tom French ALP 2.89
Melbourne Vic Sarah Witty ALP v GRN 3.02
Hughes NSW David Moncrieff ALP 3.06
Aston Vic Mary Doyle ALP 3.43
McEwen Vic Rob Mitchell ALP 4.76
Bonner Qld Kara Cook ALP 5.00
Calwell Vic Basem Abdo ALP v IND 5.08
Gilmore NSW Fiona Phillips ALP 5.13
Chisholm Vic Carina Garland ALP 5.70
Blair Qld Shayne Neumann ALP 5.71
Dickson Qld Ali France ALP 5.99

Fairly safe (24)

Leichhardt Qld Matt Smith ALP 6.06
Whitlam NSW Carol Berry ALP 6.25
Pearce WA Tracey Roberts ALP 6.44
Sturt SA Claire Clutterham ALP 6.62
Werriwa NSW Anne Stanley ALP 6.77
Paterson NSW Meryl Swanson ALP 6.89
Tangney WA Sam Lim ALP 6.99
Dunkley Vic Jodie Belyea ALP 7.08
Braddon Tas Anne Urquhart ALP 7.20
Eden-Monaro NSW Kristy McBain ALP 7.21
Hawke Vic Sam Rae ALP 7.63
Macquarie NSW Susan Templeman ALP 7.71
Franklin Tas Julie Collins ALP v IND 7.78
Bass Tas Jess Teesdale ALP 8.01
Corangamite Vic Libby Coker ALP 8.05
Lingiari NT Marion Scrymgour ALP 8.13
Brisbane Qld Madonna Jarrett ALP 8.96
McMahon NSW Chris Bowen ALP 9.02
Hunter NSW Daniel Repacholi ALP v ONP 9.04
Fraser Vic Daniel Mulino ALP v GRN 9.23
Bennelong NSW Jerome Laxale ALP 9.26
Robertson NSW Gordon Reid ALP 9.37
Dobell NSW Emma McBride ALP 9.43
Cooper Vic Ged Kearney ALP v GRN 9.72



Opposition (28 seats)

Marginal (16)

Goldstein Vic Tim Wilson LIB v IND 0.08
Longman Qld Terry Young LNP 0.11
Berowra NSW Julian Leeser LIB 1.63
La Trobe Vic Jason Wood LIB 2.06
Forrest WA Ben Small LIB 2.24
Flinders Vic Zoe McKenzie LIB v IND 2.29
Bowman Qld Henry Pike LNP 2.43
Lindsay NSW Melissa McIntosh LIB 2.78
Casey Vic Aaron Violi LIB 2.89
Fairfax Qld Ted O'Brien LNP 3.23
Wannon Vic Dan Tehan LIB v IND 3.27
Mitchell NSW Alex Hawke LIB 3.81
Monash Vic Mary Aldred LIB 4.09
McPherson Qld Leon Rebello LNP 4.44
Grey SA Tom Venning LIB 4.64
Groom Qld Garth Hamilton LNP v IND 5.67

Fairly safe ( 8 )

Fisher Qld Andrew Wallace LNP 6.03
Farrer NSW Sussan Ley LIB v IND 6.19
Canning WA Andrew Hastie LIB 6.55
Fadden Qld Cameron Caldwell LNP 6.88
Cook NSW Simon Kennedy LIB 7.19
Wright Qld Scott Buchholz LNP 7.98
Hume NSW Angus Taylor LIB 8.06
Moncrieff Qld Angie Bell LNP 8.80


It could be a very messy result in 2028.

Then there is the Senate.  

If I was a betting man, I would bet on Michelle Milthorpe to win.

Captain Nemo wrote Yesterday at 3:44pm:


A lot can happen between now and then. The current situation is obviously not stable.

LNP never again wrote Yesterday at 6:59pm:

I care.

I understand and respect both Pauline and the people who her party but it’s simply not for me now or ever in the future.

I don’t support the hard right in any universe.

I will have a look at the betting odds because I spare lobster and I after researching really believe that Farrier won’t be changing.

I’m really interested to visit the area.

When you look at the demographics of the electorate you can assume they would vote labor because they are just a normal hardworking community not earning big $$ .

But as history shows they are obviously a little smarter when given a ballot paper.