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Wind And Solar Not Nuclear Key To Cheaper Energy (Read 2022 times)
lee
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Re: Wind And Solar Not Nuclear Key To Cheaper Energy
Reply #15 - Jan 19th, 2026 at 2:00pm
 
Apparently all is not well in Chinese Solar manufacturing land.

"JA Solar forecast a full-year net loss attributable to shareholders of CNY 4.5–4.8 billion ($619–660 million) for 2025, with earning per share (EPS) at -CNY 1.37 to -CNY 1.46. It attributed the loss mainly to supply-demand imbalance caused by concentrated capacity additions across the PV value chain, compounded by rising trade protectionism that pushed down module average selling prices (ASPs) and margins. In its previous disclosure, JA Solar reported Jan–Sep revenue of CNY 36.809 nillion and a net loss of CNY 3.553 billion.

TCL Zhonghuan said it expects a 2025 net loss of CNY 8.2-9.6 billion ($1.13–1.32 billion), versus a CNY 9.818 billion loss a year earlier. Based on its earlier filings, the company recorded a Jan–Sep net loss of CNY 5.777 billion implying a Q4 loss of roughly CNY 2.423–3.823 billion, wider than its Q3 loss of CNY 1.534 billion. TCL Zhonghuan said demand growth has not been enough to absorb oversupply, leaving prices depressed and margins under pressure.

JinkoSolar released a notice indicating it also expects a full-year loss for 2025, without providing a range. Its Jan–Sep financials showed revenue of CNY 47.986 billion and a net loss of CNY 3.92 billion.

Trina Solar likewise said it expects to remain in the red for 2025; earlier data showed Jan–Sep revenue of CNY 49.97 billion down 20.87% year on year, and a net loss of CNY 4.201 billion.

Polysilicon producer Daqo New Energy said it anticipates another full-year loss in 2025, though the deficit is expected to narrow. Its Jan–Sep results showed revenue of CNY 3.243 billion and a net loss of CNY 1.073 billion, while Q3 revenue rose to CNY 1.773 billion and it posted Q3 net profit of CNY 73.479 million.

State Grid of China released its investment plan for the 15th Five-Year Plan period (2026–2030), projecting average annual additions of around 200 GW of wind and solar capacity across its service territory. The utility said it aims to lift the share of non-fossil energy consumption to 25% and raise electricity’s share of end-use energy consumption to 35%, while supporting the rollout of “zero-carbon” factories and industrial parks and enabling access for 35 million charging points. State Grid expects fixed-asset investment of about CNY 4.0 trillion over the period, up around 40% from the previous five-year plan."

https://www.pv-magazine.com/2026/01/16/chinese-pv-industry-brief-major-solar-man...
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lee
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Re: Wind And Solar Not Nuclear Key To Cheaper Energy
Reply #16 - Mar 22nd, 2026 at 2:40pm
 
"Solar panels typically last 25 to 30 years. But many are replaced earlier, often because homeowners upgrade to newer and more efficient models. That means the first big wave of solar waste – installed about 16 years ago in the early 2010s – is arriving earlier than expected. The Australian Energy Council estimates that Australia will produce about 280,000 tonnes of solar panel waste by the end of 2025. And that number is rising quickly. An estimated 685,000 tonnes of panels will have to be retired by 2030. Although many Australians assume old solar panels are useless, most can still generate power for years."

https://blogs.lse.ac.uk/businessreview/2026/02/17/australias-solar-waste-is-pili...

"Recycling panels is challenging and expensive. It costs $30 to recycle each solar panel, to recover between $3.00 and $8.00 worth of minerals, metal, and glass. By contrast, it costs approximately $1.00 per panel to ship used panels to a landfill, and slightly more to ship inefficient used panels for reuse in developing countries overseas, shifting the waste problems elsewhere."

Note: USD

https://solarrecycling.com/solar-panel-recycling-problems-that-you-might-face/

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Frank
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Re: Wind And Solar Not Nuclear Key To Cheaper Energy
Reply #17 - Apr 18th, 2026 at 5:12pm
 
In a scathing critique, Mr Kennett
said the crisis was a product of political leadership
that was “visionless” and focused on short-term fixes rather than fundamental reform.

He asserted that Australia had declined to the point of being a “mendicant country”.  Mr Kennett said the main problem was a relentless and costly “conga line of subsidies” to major industries.


“We’re giving billions of dollars to our Alcoa, not to our power, to the production of steel in South Australia and to aluminium plants in Tassie and elsewhere,” he said.

“We’re not addressing the fundamental problem, which is the energy cost to those particular businesses. So we are subsidising ourselves to death. The country is, every day, slipping down a fireman’s pole so quickly and no one cares.”
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Re: Wind And Solar Not Nuclear Key To Cheaper Energy
Reply #18 - May 30th, 2026 at 3:05am
 
Wind turbines are massive steel towers trying to reach the wind. The blades do the actual work. The tower merely holds them up.
The Netherlands just decided to skip the tower entirely. Off the coast at Borkum Riffgrund, they activated the world's first commercial kite wind farm.
Thirty automated kites flying at 500 meters altitude. The wind is 40 percent stronger up there.
The 100-square-meter wings fly in relentless figure-eights, pulling tethers that spin surface generators before reeling back in to repeat the cycle.
The kite system requires no deep ocean-floor piling and 90 percent less steel than traditional offshore turbines.
It generates 15 megawatts of power for a fraction of the capital cost.
Sometimes the best way to improve a windmill is to remove the mill.
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lee
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Re: Wind And Solar Not Nuclear Key To Cheaper Energy
Reply #19 - May 30th, 2026 at 1:40pm
 
And what is the lifetime of the kites? Were they built using fossil fuel? Roll Eyes
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Sir Eoin O Fada
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Re: Wind And Solar Not Nuclear Key To Cheaper Energy
Reply #20 - Aug 6th, 2026 at 10:31pm
 
What about tidal?

Likely to be available until the end of the World, runs usefully about 21hours in the day, rain, hail sunshine, wind or no wind.
Utterly dependable, the ultimate renewable energy apart from thermal which is available 24/7/52 and not affected by leap years.
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lee
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Re: Wind And Solar Not Nuclear Key To Cheaper Energy
Reply #21 - Aug 7th, 2026 at 2:09pm
 
Sir Eoin O Fada wrote on Aug 6th, 2026 at 10:31pm:
What about tidal?


Subject to saltwater corrosion. Maintenance costs. Only two large scale projects in operation. La Rance, France don't give their O&M costs.

"Public sources don’t give a single, definitive annual “maintenance cost” number for La Rance.

From AI: "What I can point to is that one review-style article states that maintenance and operating costs are not transparently published by EDF, and that the cost figures “announced” vary (it gives a range of 120 to 185 €/kWh, which reads like a levelized/production cost figure rather than an annual O&M budget)."

Converted to O&M

"Using the figures from public sources:

    Annual energy produced (E): ~500 GWh/year (≈ 500,000,000 kWh/year). Wikipedia

    All-in “cost of electricity production” figure you referenced earlier: about 0.12 €/kWh.

    Converted annual cost (maintenance/production in €/year terms, as expressed per kWh):
    0.12 €/kWh × 500,000,000 kWh/year = 60,000,000 €/year (≈ €60 million per year)."

From duck.ai
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Re: Wind And Solar Not Nuclear Key To Cheaper Energy
Reply #22 - Aug 7th, 2026 at 2:17pm
 
whiteknight wrote on Dec 19th, 2025 at 10:02am:
Wind and solar, and not nuclear, the key to cheaper energy: CSIRO   Smiley

December 17, 2025
Sydney Morning Herald

.



Yay, bring back sailing ships, wind mills, sun dials, bio- power (horses).

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Re: Wind And Solar Not Nuclear Key To Cheaper Energy
Reply #23 - Aug 8th, 2026 at 7:35pm
 
lee wrote on Aug 7th, 2026 at 2:09pm:
Sir Eoin O Fada wrote on Aug 6th, 2026 at 10:31pm:
What about tidal?


Subject to saltwater corrosion. Maintenance costs. Only two large scale projects in operation. La Rance, France don't give their O&M costs.

"Public sources don’t give a single, definitive annual “maintenance cost” number for La Rance.

From AI: "What I can point to is that one review-style article states that maintenance and operating costs are not transparently published by EDF, and that the cost figures “announced” vary (it gives a range of 120 to 185 €/kWh, which reads like a levelized/production cost figure rather than an annual O&M budget)."

Converted to O&M

"Using the figures from public sources:

    Annual energy produced (E): ~500 GWh/year (≈ 500,000,000 kWh/year). Wikipedia

    All-in “cost of electricity production” figure you referenced earlier: about 0.12 €/kWh.

    Converted annual cost (maintenance/production in €/year terms, as expressed per kWh):
    0.12 €/kWh × 500,000,000 kWh/year = 60,000,000 €/year (≈ €60 million per year)."

From duck.ai

Subject to salt water corrosion?
Can we not use our brilliant science to overcome this problem?
We seem to have plenty of steel ships.
I’ve seen tidal mills in Ireland that are hundreds of years old and the only part affected by salt water is the wooden paddle wheel and they typically last 50 years and more.
Many of the ancient sites have been converted to modern turbines, and when made of marine bronze the life is at least equal to a ship’s propeller.
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Sir Eoin O Fada
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Re: Wind And Solar Not Nuclear Key To Cheaper Energy
Reply #24 - Aug 9th, 2026 at 12:43pm
 
Solar Chimneys are worth a look too.
Cost nothing to run, very low maintenance, long life.
But they have one great failing, they only produce electricity, their revenue producing capacity is very low.
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lee
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Re: Wind And Solar Not Nuclear Key To Cheaper Energy
Reply #25 - Aug 9th, 2026 at 1:09pm
 
Sir Eoin O Fada wrote on Aug 8th, 2026 at 7:35pm:
Subject to salt water corrosion?


Yes. The same with wind turbine towers in salt water

Sir Eoin O Fada wrote on Aug 8th, 2026 at 7:35pm:
Can we not use our brilliant science to overcome this problem?


It hasn't been achieved yet.

Sir Eoin O Fada wrote on Aug 8th, 2026 at 7:35pm:
We seem to have plenty of steel ships.


And they require heavy maintenance and then go to the boneyard. With maintenance, which requires pulling them out of the water, to replace hull parts they can last a long time. But typically 25-30 years.

Sir Eoin O Fada wrote on Aug 8th, 2026 at 7:35pm:
I’ve seen tidal mills in Ireland that are hundreds of years old and the only part affected by salt water is the wooden paddle wheel and they typically last 50 years and more.



And wood is not steel. But out of curiosity what is the output of those tidal mills?

Sir Eoin O Fada wrote on Aug 8th, 2026 at 7:35pm:
Many of the ancient sites have been converted to modern turbines, and when made of marine bronze the life is at least equal to a ship’s propeller.


And they last 10-15 generally but out to 20 years, with anode replacement.

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Re: Wind And Solar Not Nuclear Key To Cheaper Energy
Reply #26 - Aug 9th, 2026 at 4:57pm
 
lee wrote on Aug 9th, 2026 at 1:09pm:
Sir Eoin O Fada wrote on Aug 8th, 2026 at 7:35pm:
Subject to salt water corrosion?


Yes. The same with wind turbine towers in salt water

Sir Eoin O Fada wrote on Aug 8th, 2026 at 7:35pm:
Can we not use our brilliant science to overcome this problem?


It hasn't been achieved yet.

Sir Eoin O Fada wrote on Aug 8th, 2026 at 7:35pm:
We seem to have plenty of steel ships.


And they require heavy maintenance and then go to the boneyard. With maintenance, which requires pulling them out of the water, to replace hull parts they can last a long time. But typically 25-30 years.

Sir Eoin O Fada wrote on Aug 8th, 2026 at 7:35pm:
I’ve seen tidal mills in Ireland that are hundreds of years old and the only part affected by salt water is the wooden paddle wheel and they typically last 50 years and more.



And wood is not steel. But out of curiosity what is the output of those tidal mills?

Sir Eoin O Fada wrote on Aug 8th, 2026 at 7:35pm:
Many of the ancient sites have been converted to modern turbines, and when made of marine bronze the life is at least equal to a ship’s propeller.


And they last 10-15 generally but out to 20 years, with anode replacement.


The hull of the ‘’James Craig’’ is now 152 years old and spent 99% of its time in salt water and much of that time without any maintenance, perhaps therin lys the secret.

The Irish tidal mills produce little power but then they are little mills, there are many places in Australia where tides are high enough to build viable tidal power stations.
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Re: Wind And Solar Not Nuclear Key To Cheaper Energy
Reply #27 - Aug 9th, 2026 at 5:19pm
 
‘’ HMS Warrior (1860) was the Royal Navy's first ironclad ocean-going armoured warship and world's first iron-hulled ironclad, and was launched in 1860. She became a depot ship in 1902, was renamed HMS Vernon III in 1904, and hulked as HMS Warrior in 1923. She was handed over for preservation as Warrior in 1979, and is preserved at Portsmouth as a museum ship.’’

Seems to have stood up to the salt environment.
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Re: Wind And Solar Not Nuclear Key To Cheaper Energy
Reply #28 - Aug 9th, 2026 at 5:35pm
 
Sir Eoin O Fada wrote on Aug 9th, 2026 at 4:57pm:
The hull of the ‘’James Craig’’ is now 152 years old and spent 99% of its time in salt water and much of that time without any maintenance, perhaps therin lys the secret.


The James Craig hull has been rebuilt twice. In 1918 and 1972.

The HMS Warrior  hull was rebuilt between 1864 and 1867. A good long career.

Which of course says nothing about the sacrificial anodes.
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Re: Wind And Solar Not Nuclear Key To Cheaper Energy
Reply #29 - Aug 9th, 2026 at 8:36pm
 
lee wrote on Aug 9th, 2026 at 5:35pm:
Sir Eoin O Fada wrote on Aug 9th, 2026 at 4:57pm:
The hull of the ‘’James Craig’’ is now 152 years old and spent 99% of its time in salt water and much of that time without any maintenance, perhaps therin lys the secret.


The James Craig hull has been rebuilt twice. In 1918 and 1972.

The HMS Warrior  hull was rebuilt between 1864 and 1867. A good long career.

Which of course says nothing about the sacrificial anodes.

I was involved with the “James Craig’’ from times before it was refloated and towed to Sydney, it was not rebuilt, it was restored using as much of the original hull as was humanly possible, it and the other iron ships that still exist rather indicate that iron may be a good material to use in modern applications for tidal generation.
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