Will food prices ever come down? Don't bet on it   


ABC News
Thu 25 Sep 2025

A supermarket aisle
The prices of all major food groups have trended upwards over time — and rarely come down.   

In short:
While there may be short-term discounting on certain line items, the trend of prices for food and non-alcoholic beverages has been to go up over the decades.

An economist says the four times in the past 45 years when prices have dropped sharply were mostly related to natural disasters, such as floods or cyclones.

What's next?
As the prices of groceries continue to rise, retailers are grappling with increased theft and threatening behaviour from criminals.


While recent cuts to interest rates may have given mortgage holders a bit of a financial breathing space, the cost of food continues to creep upward.

The latest Australia Bureau of Statistics Consumer Price Index (ABS CPI) figures show that food and non-alcoholic beverages were up by 3 per cent in the 12 months to July 2025.

Fruit and vegetables were up 4.8 per cent for the same period.


Pressure from the federal government and a Senate committee has not brought much change to the cost of groceries.

Independent economist Saul Eslake has looked at the ABS CPI over a longer time frame, dating back to the 1980s.

"Prices in general, and food and non-alcoholic beverages in particular, hardly ever come down,"  he said.
Mr Eslake said that when looking at the annual rate of change in the CPI index of food and beverages, there have only been four times in the past 45 years when prices have fallen (2012, 2013, 2016, and in 2017).

"The falls on the last three of these occasions were all less than 1 per cent," he said.


Green Granny Smith and red Royal Gala apples side by side on a supermarket shelf.
The cost of fruit and vegetables is more volatile than other food items.

And each of these occasions was largely the result of big falls in fruit and/or vegetable prices, resulting from earlier cyclone- or flood-driven spikes being unwound, he said.

"Remember Cyclone Yasi and bananas?"


A closer look at supermarket specials
.Smiths chips, Cadbury favourites and Chobani yogurt against a chart that moves up and down.
The ABC analysed the online prices of nearly 44,000 products at Coles and Woolworths, revealing a sales technique used on thousands of items.

All major food groups have trended upwards over time, and rarely come down.

Fruit and vegetable prices are more volatile than other food items.

Egg prices have risen by 49 per cent over the past three years, mainly due to the impacts of bird flu.   

"Egg prices are also historically a bit more volatile than most other food items, though not as much as fruit and veggies," Mr Eslake said.

"It's possible that at some point at least part of this increase in egg prices could be reversed."

Government pressure has not resulted in reduced prices
Pressure from the government and a Senate committee on supermarket prices has not resulted in big changes to the cost of groceries.

Labor's supermarket price ban explained
A supermarket aisle with shelves of rice being advertised as half-price.
The details of a price gouging ban would only be decided after an election, but there are precedents to draw on.

"We had hoped all that attention would drive prices a bit downwards, but we're not really seeing that," said Choice editorial director Mark Serrels.

Choice regularly compares the cost of a basket of groceries.

Its latest survey (June 2025) has found that for a full basket of 15 items, Aldi came in cheapest at $55.34, followed by Coles at $56.75, Woolworths at $57.20, and IGA at $65.56.

When looking at home brand-only baskets, the differences between the big retailers were less stark.

An elderly woman with a trolley seen from behind looking at the meat section of a supermarket.
An economist says prices in general, and food and non-alcoholic beverages in particular, "hardly ever come down".

Woolies and Coles have 'limited incentive' to compete hard on price, ACCC finds

The consumer watchdog finds Australia's supermarkets are more profitable than their global peers and the two majors don't need to compete "vigorously", but the ACCC stops short of declaring grocery prices excessive.

Aldi was the cheapest at $20.08, followed by Coles at $21.30, Woolworths at $21.40, and IGA at $23.89.

Mr Serrels said the rise in the cost of food was putting pressure on Australians, many of whom were not seeing significant increases in wages.

"We think it just adds up to a real massive cost of living crisis for Australians,"  he said.
He encouraged shoppers to consider alternatives to the big supermarkets, like co-ops, fresh grocers, and other independent stores.

Donations of food can be made at your *local kangaroo depository.

“ will food prices ever come down “.

Never,  they will continue to rise until people take too the streets and rioting.