Anything China does on energy and climate change is very big news. Its plans ripple around the world, whether that’s in changing the demand for fossil fuels or affecting the impacts on the planet from global heating.

On Thursday, Australia woke to the news that China’s president, Xi Jinping, had told the United Nations that for the first time his country was setting a target to cut – in absolute terms – its greenhouse gas emissions.

In a video address, Xi said China’s emissions would fall by 7% to 10% from their peak. When that peak happens he didn’t say, but some analysts think it may have already passed.

Sat beside a Chines flag and before a backdrop depicting a mountain range, Chinese president Xi Jinping delivers a video message, dressed in a dark blue suit and wearing a grey tie

Anthony Albanese had a lukewarm response to Xi’s announcement, saying it was “good that there is progress being made”, but “of course [Australia] would like there to be more”.

China’s emissions are about 29% of the global total – more than twice that of the United States, the world’s second-biggest emitter.

What’s at stake for Australia was clearly articulated by the release last week of Australia’s first national climate risk assessment, which laid out the shocking toll on the economy, on communities and on habitats and wildlife as global temperatures rise.

Political figures and commentators who want to see Australia slow down on cutting emissions have pointed to China’s lack of a target as justification for their position. Those arguments will be harder to make now.

Many climate analysts have expressed disappointment at what was seen as the timid nature of China’s target, but many also noted China had underpromised and overdelivered on its previous target.

Dr Jorrit Gosens, an expert on China’s energy transition at the Australian National University, says: “The 7% to 10% reduction by 2035 is disappointing, because it is less than what we need. But 7% to 10% in political terms is quite an achievement.”

China is also the biggest manufacturer and deployer of technologies to slow global heating, from wind turbines and solar panels to electric vehicles and batteries.

Xi also set other 2035 goals: solar and wind capacity would increase by six times the levels in 2020 to reach 3,600 gigawatts, and the share of non-fossil fuels providing the country’s energy would rise above 30%.

But Gosens says both these targets will be easily reached. China has been adding between 300GW and 400GW of solar and wind a year for the past two years.

Getting to a total of 3,600GW by 2035 would require a rate of only about 180GW a year, he says.

“It is so entirely likely that it will be overachieved that it’s almost pointless to set that target,” he says.