Australian Politics Forum - It's official: Trump IS a dictator

Armchair_Politician

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Re: It's official: Trump IS a dictator
Reply #15 - Aug 4^th, 2025 at 1:27pm

ProudKangaroo wrote on Aug 4^th, 2025 at 1:12pm:

Frank wrote on Aug 4^th, 2025 at 11:33am:

Armchair_Politician wrote on Aug 4^th, 2025 at 9:54am:

Fresh from firing Bureau of Labor Statistics Commissioner Erika McEntarfer, a Trump official has said that Trump wants his own people running the Bureau. That's worrying because the Bureau is (always had been) a non-partisan, independent organisation that provided information and data to the government of the day that helps the government make decisions. It's important this information is accurate and free of bias or influence - that's something surely we can all agree on.

But not Trump. He wants it under his control and the reason is obvious. He wants to be able to publish only information that is flattering to him and his administration. This is the stuff of dictators, who control information to suit their own ends.

https://edition.cnn.com/2025/08/03/business/kevin-hassett-trump-tariffs-bls-fire...

So the statistician didn't get it right in the past 2 months when she overestimated the jobs by 258,000 - or she didn't get it right now when she reversed those etimates down.

Which one?

You don't understand how any of this works do you Frank?

Stop relying on information that backs up what you want to believe, and start educating yourself on how the system actually works.

Short Answer:

In the simplest terms, the BLS ask companies how many people they estimate they will hire.

Companies give an estimate.

A few months later they give the actual number they hired.

The estimates are now revised to the actual number.

That's it.

Long Answer:

In more detail, the most important thing to understand is that the BLS does not directly estimate the number of jobs gained or lost each month.

They are estimating the total number of employees (payroll positions) each month. The job growth/loss numbers are just the difference between the monthly total estimates.

Between this release for July 2025 and the June 2025 release last month

The estimate for the total number of employees in May fell from 159,577,000 to 159,452,000.

The estimated number of employees in June fell from 159,724,000 to 159,466,000.

Those are revisions of -0.08% for May and -0.16% for June.

The problem with the growth/loss estimates is that even good growth is just a tiny fraction of the total number of jobs. For example, 300,000 jobs is just 0.18% of 159.5 million jobs. It doesn't take a large revision to the total number of jobs to make a huge change in the number of jobs added or lost.

You should definitely take the monthly job growth/loss numbers with a grain of salt. Especially the initial number, before the first and second revisions.

I wish media outlets emphasised this more.

But that's a problem with how this particular statistic is estimated. It's not an indictment of all or even most of the data that BLS publishes.

As for why there are frequent revisions, the main reason is that they get more data.

CES estimates are considered preliminary when first published each month because not all respondents report their payroll data by the initial release of employment, hours, and earnings. BLS continues to collect payroll data and revises estimates twice before the annual benchmark update (see benchmark revisions section below).

https://www.bls.gov/opub/hom/ces/presentation.htm#revisions

And you can find statistics on the past monthly revisions here:

https://www.bls.gov/web/empsit/cesnaicsrev.htm#Summary

Did you honestly not think there'd be a massive impact on job numbers with all the firing that DOGE did that you celebrated?

https://eclectech.co.uk/stuff/kettle.gif

Don't forget Trump's beloved tariffs.

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greggerypeccary

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Re: It's official: Trump IS a dictator
Reply #16 - Aug 4^th, 2025 at 1:38pm

ProudKangaroo wrote on Aug 4^th, 2025 at 1:12pm:

Frank wrote on Aug 4^th, 2025 at 11:33am:

Armchair_Politician wrote on Aug 4^th, 2025 at 9:54am:

Fresh from firing Bureau of Labor Statistics Commissioner Erika McEntarfer, a Trump official has said that Trump wants his own people running the Bureau. That's worrying because the Bureau is (always had been) a non-partisan, independent organisation that provided information and data to the government of the day that helps the government make decisions. It's important this information is accurate and free of bias or influence - that's something surely we can all agree on.

But not Trump. He wants it under his control and the reason is obvious. He wants to be able to publish only information that is flattering to him and his administration. This is the stuff of dictators, who control information to suit their own ends.

https://edition.cnn.com/2025/08/03/business/kevin-hassett-trump-tariffs-bls-fire...

So the statistician didn't get it right in the past 2 months when she overestimated the jobs by 258,000 - or she didn't get it right now when she reversed those etimates down.

Which one?

You don't understand how any of this works do you Frank?

Stop relying on information that backs up what you want to believe, and start educating yourself on how the system actually works.

Short Answer:

In the simplest terms, the BLS ask companies how many people they estimate they will hire.

Companies give an estimate.

A few months later they give the actual number they hired.

The estimates are now revised to the actual number.

That's it.

Long Answer:

In more detail, the most important thing to understand is that the BLS does not directly estimate the number of jobs gained or lost each month.

They are estimating the total number of employees (payroll positions) each month. The job growth/loss numbers are just the difference between the monthly total estimates.

Between this release for July 2025 and the June 2025 release last month

The estimate for the total number of employees in May fell from 159,577,000 to 159,452,000.

The estimated number of employees in June fell from 159,724,000 to 159,466,000.

Those are revisions of -0.08% for May and -0.16% for June.

The problem with the growth/loss estimates is that even good growth is just a tiny fraction of the total number of jobs. For example, 300,000 jobs is just 0.18% of 159.5 million jobs. It doesn't take a large revision to the total number of jobs to make a huge change in the number of jobs added or lost.

You should definitely take the monthly job growth/loss numbers with a grain of salt. Especially the initial number, before the first and second revisions.

I wish media outlets emphasised this more.

But that's a problem with how this particular statistic is estimated. It's not an indictment of all or even most of the data that BLS publishes.

As for why there are frequent revisions, the main reason is that they get more data.

CES estimates are considered preliminary when first published each month because not all respondents report their payroll data by the initial release of employment, hours, and earnings. BLS continues to collect payroll data and revises estimates twice before the annual benchmark update (see benchmark revisions section below).

https://www.bls.gov/opub/hom/ces/presentation.htm#revisions

And you can find statistics on the past monthly revisions here:

https://www.bls.gov/web/empsit/cesnaicsrev.htm#Summary

Did you honestly not think there'd be a massive impact on job numbers with all the firing that DOGE did that you celebrated?

I think that's the problem right there.

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Aussie

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Re: It's official: Trump IS a dictator
Reply #17 - Aug 4^th, 2025 at 1:44pm

Armchair_Politician wrote on Aug 4^th, 2025 at 11:31am:

During WWII, there were a number of attempts to assassinate Adolf Hitler, for obvious reasons. All failed, but by the end of the war, Allied leaders were actually grateful that those attempts had failed, for a surprising reason. Everyone who served Hitler, from his top Generals down were afraid of giving him news that he did not want to hear. It got to the point where he was making some decisions based on bad information, or information that his subordinates thought he would want to hear, not what he needed to hear, which is the truth. It lead to a serious of disastrous decisions that ultimately lead to Germany losing WWII.

Trump is falling into the same trap, and his administration officials are enabling this in their desire to bend over backwards in their attempts to please Trump and make him happy. This is bad for the country as a whole, because decisions will be made based on erroneous information and the people who will suffer the consequences will be ordinary Americans who can least afford it. While he may not have been happy with the data released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics, at least it was honest and he could make or change his plans accordingly. But because he thinks it's "fake news" and politically biased, he won't listen to this advice and will make bad decisions that will only make the situation worse, not better. Again, ordinary average Americans will pay the price.

Yes, as Napoleon said, 'Never interrupt the enemy when he is making a mistake.'

On the other side of that same coin, a great deal of damage was done while not 'interrupting' Hitler.

That "God' of whom Trump speaks is indeed a mysterious bastard.

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Frank

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Re: It's official: Trump IS a dictator
Reply #18 - Aug 4^th, 2025 at 2:03pm

ProudKangaroo wrote on Aug 4^th, 2025 at 1:12pm:

Frank wrote on Aug 4^th, 2025 at 11:33am:

Armchair_Politician wrote on Aug 4^th, 2025 at 9:54am:

Fresh from firing Bureau of Labor Statistics Commissioner Erika McEntarfer, a Trump official has said that Trump wants his own people running the Bureau. That's worrying because the Bureau is (always had been) a non-partisan, independent organisation that provided information and data to the government of the day that helps the government make decisions. It's important this information is accurate and free of bias or influence - that's something surely we can all agree on.

But not Trump. He wants it under his control and the reason is obvious. He wants to be able to publish only information that is flattering to him and his administration. This is the stuff of dictators, who control information to suit their own ends.

https://edition.cnn.com/2025/08/03/business/kevin-hassett-trump-tariffs-bls-fire...

So the statistician didn't get it right in the past 2 months when she overestimated the jobs by 258,000 - or she didn't get it right now when she reversed those etimates down.

Which one?

You don't understand how any of this works do you Frank?

Stop relying on information that backs up what you want to believe, and start educating yourself on how the system actually works.

Short Answer:

In the simplest terms, the BLS ask companies how many people they estimate they will hire.

Companies give an estimate.

A few months later they give the actual number they hired.

The estimates are now revised to the actual number.

That's it.

Long Answer:

In more detail, the most important thing to understand is that the BLS does not directly estimate the number of jobs gained or lost each month.

They are estimating the total number of employees (payroll positions) each month. The job growth/loss numbers are just the difference between the monthly total estimates.

Between this release for July 2025 and the June 2025 release last month

The estimate for the total number of employees in May fell from 159,577,000 to 159,452,000.

The estimated number of employees in June fell from 159,724,000 to 159,466,000.

Those are revisions of -0.08% for May and -0.16% for June.

The problem with the growth/loss estimates is that even good growth is just a tiny fraction of the total number of jobs. For example, 300,000 jobs is just 0.18% of 159.5 million jobs. It doesn't take a large revision to the total number of jobs to make a huge change in the number of jobs added or lost.

You should definitely take the monthly job growth/loss numbers with a grain of salt. Especially the initial number, before the first and second revisions.

I wish media outlets emphasised this more.

But that's a problem with how this particular statistic is estimated. It's not an indictment of all or even most of the data that BLS publishes.

As for why there are frequent revisions, the main reason is that they get more data.

CES estimates are considered preliminary when first published each month because not all respondents report their payroll data by the initial release of employment, hours, and earnings. BLS continues to collect payroll data and revises estimates twice before the annual benchmark update (see benchmark revisions section below).

https://www.bls.gov/opub/hom/ces/presentation.htm#revisions

And you can find statistics on the past monthly revisions here:

https://www.bls.gov/web/empsit/cesnaicsrev.htm#Summary

Did you honestly not think there'd be a massive impact on job numbers with all the firing that DOGE did that you celebrated?

https://eclectech.co.uk/stuff/kettle.gif

I thought the line was that DOGE didn't nake much difference.

In any case, getting rid of unnecessary bureocracies is a good thing. And if YOU knew that the DOGE job losses were massive, why didn't the BLS? Hello?!?

As for job numbers, the monthly stats are NOT presented as vague estimates based on polling and guesstimates that will be second and third guessed in due course. People expect more solid and reliable infirmation. Markets, investors, pension funds etc are treating these reports as reliable, not as guesses based on guesses. What use is a stats bureau if all it does is guesstimate and then revise, revise, revise in hindsight. No point in making monthly announcements of guessworks as if they were rigorous, scientific facts only to revise rhem wildly when actual facts come to hand.

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Frank

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Re: It's official: Trump IS a dictator
Reply #19 - Aug 4^th, 2025 at 2:05pm

Aussie wrote on Aug 4^th, 2025 at 1:44pm:

Armchair_Politician wrote on Aug 4^th, 2025 at 11:31am:

During WWII, there were a number of attempts to assassinate Adolf Hitler, for obvious reasons. All failed, but by the end of the war, Allied leaders were actually grateful that those attempts had failed, for a surprising reason. Everyone who served Hitler, from his top Generals down were afraid of giving him news that he did not want to hear. It got to the point where he was making some decisions based on bad information, or information that his subordinates thought he would want to hear, not what he needed to hear, which is the truth. It lead to a serious of disastrous decisions that ultimately lead to Germany losing WWII.

Trump is falling into the same trap, and his administration officials are enabling this in their desire to bend over backwards in their attempts to please Trump and make him happy. This is bad for the country as a whole, because decisions will be made based on erroneous information and the people who will suffer the consequences will be ordinary Americans who can least afford it. While he may not have been happy with the data released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics, at least it was honest and he could make or change his plans accordingly. But because he thinks it's "fake news" and politically biased, he won't listen to this advice and will make bad decisions that will only make the situation worse, not better. Again, ordinary average Americans will pay the price.

Yes, as Napoleon said, 'Never interrupt the enemy when he is making a mistake.'

On the other side of that same coin, a great deal of damage was done while not 'interrupting' Hitler.

That "God' of whom Trump speaks is indeed a mysterious bastard.

Hitler, Napoleon - next, Belzebub.

This is NOT the Russian fron in winter, fellas. Get a grip.

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Estragon: I can’t go on like this.
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Armchair_Politician

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Re: It's official: Trump IS a dictator
Reply #20 - Aug 4^th, 2025 at 2:16pm

Frank wrote on Aug 4^th, 2025 at 2:05pm:

Aussie wrote on Aug 4^th, 2025 at 1:44pm:

Armchair_Politician wrote on Aug 4^th, 2025 at 11:31am:

During WWII, there were a number of attempts to assassinate Adolf Hitler, for obvious reasons. All failed, but by the end of the war, Allied leaders were actually grateful that those attempts had failed, for a surprising reason. Everyone who served Hitler, from his top Generals down were afraid of giving him news that he did not want to hear. It got to the point where he was making some decisions based on bad information, or information that his subordinates thought he would want to hear, not what he needed to hear, which is the truth. It lead to a serious of disastrous decisions that ultimately lead to Germany losing WWII.

Trump is falling into the same trap, and his administration officials are enabling this in their desire to bend over backwards in their attempts to please Trump and make him happy. This is bad for the country as a whole, because decisions will be made based on erroneous information and the people who will suffer the consequences will be ordinary Americans who can least afford it. While he may not have been happy with the data released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics, at least it was honest and he could make or change his plans accordingly. But because he thinks it's "fake news" and politically biased, he won't listen to this advice and will make bad decisions that will only make the situation worse, not better. Again, ordinary average Americans will pay the price.

Yes, as Napoleon said, 'Never interrupt the enemy when he is making a mistake.'

On the other side of that same coin, a great deal of damage was done while not 'interrupting' Hitler.

That "God' of whom Trump speaks is indeed a mysterious bastard.

Hitler, Napoleon - next, Belzebub.

This is NOT the Russian fron in winter, fellas. Get a grip.

This is dictators (also wannabe) and authoritarian leaders and how they are presented with information. Quite relevant, even if you disagree.

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Armchair_Politician

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Re: It's official: Trump IS a dictator
Reply #21 - Aug 4^th, 2025 at 2:16pm

Frank wrote on Aug 4^th, 2025 at 2:03pm:

ProudKangaroo wrote on Aug 4^th, 2025 at 1:12pm:

Frank wrote on Aug 4^th, 2025 at 11:33am:

Armchair_Politician wrote on Aug 4^th, 2025 at 9:54am:

Fresh from firing Bureau of Labor Statistics Commissioner Erika McEntarfer, a Trump official has said that Trump wants his own people running the Bureau. That's worrying because the Bureau is (always had been) a non-partisan, independent organisation that provided information and data to the government of the day that helps the government make decisions. It's important this information is accurate and free of bias or influence - that's something surely we can all agree on.

But not Trump. He wants it under his control and the reason is obvious. He wants to be able to publish only information that is flattering to him and his administration. This is the stuff of dictators, who control information to suit their own ends.

https://edition.cnn.com/2025/08/03/business/kevin-hassett-trump-tariffs-bls-fire...

So the statistician didn't get it right in the past 2 months when she overestimated the jobs by 258,000 - or she didn't get it right now when she reversed those etimates down.

Which one?

You don't understand how any of this works do you Frank?

Stop relying on information that backs up what you want to believe, and start educating yourself on how the system actually works.

Short Answer:

In the simplest terms, the BLS ask companies how many people they estimate they will hire.

Companies give an estimate.

A few months later they give the actual number they hired.

The estimates are now revised to the actual number.

That's it.

Long Answer:

In more detail, the most important thing to understand is that the BLS does not directly estimate the number of jobs gained or lost each month.

They are estimating the total number of employees (payroll positions) each month. The job growth/loss numbers are just the difference between the monthly total estimates.

Between this release for July 2025 and the June 2025 release last month

The estimate for the total number of employees in May fell from 159,577,000 to 159,452,000.

The estimated number of employees in June fell from 159,724,000 to 159,466,000.

Those are revisions of -0.08% for May and -0.16% for June.

The problem with the growth/loss estimates is that even good growth is just a tiny fraction of the total number of jobs. For example, 300,000 jobs is just 0.18% of 159.5 million jobs. It doesn't take a large revision to the total number of jobs to make a huge change in the number of jobs added or lost.

You should definitely take the monthly job growth/loss numbers with a grain of salt. Especially the initial number, before the first and second revisions.

I wish media outlets emphasised this more.

But that's a problem with how this particular statistic is estimated. It's not an indictment of all or even most of the data that BLS publishes.

As for why there are frequent revisions, the main reason is that they get more data.

CES estimates are considered preliminary when first published each month because not all respondents report their payroll data by the initial release of employment, hours, and earnings. BLS continues to collect payroll data and revises estimates twice before the annual benchmark update (see benchmark revisions section below).

https://www.bls.gov/opub/hom/ces/presentation.htm#revisions

And you can find statistics on the past monthly revisions here:

https://www.bls.gov/web/empsit/cesnaicsrev.htm#Summary

Did you honestly not think there'd be a massive impact on job numbers with all the firing that DOGE did that you celebrated?

https://eclectech.co.uk/stuff/kettle.gif

I thought the line was that DOGE didn't nake much difference.

In any case, getting rid of unnecessary bureocracies is a good thing. And if YOU knew that the DOGE job losses were massive, why didn't the BLS? Hello?!?

As for job numbers, the monthly stats are NOT presented as vague estimates based on polling and guesstimates that will be second and third guessed in due course. People expect more solid and reliable infirmation. Markets, investors, pension funds etc are treating these reports as reliable, not as guesses based on guesses. What use is a stats bureau if all it does is guesstimate and then revise, revise, revise in hindsight. No point in making monthly announcements of guessworks as if they were rigorous, scientific facts only to revise rhem wildly when actual facts come to hand.

Who said DOGE didn't or wouldn't make a difference? Everyone with a brain has said DOGE is disastrous.

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Frank

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Re: It's official: Trump IS a dictator
Reply #22 - Aug 4^th, 2025 at 2:20pm

Armchair_Politician wrote on Aug 4^th, 2025 at 2:16pm:

Frank wrote on Aug 4^th, 2025 at 2:05pm:

Aussie wrote on Aug 4^th, 2025 at 1:44pm:

Armchair_Politician wrote on Aug 4^th, 2025 at 11:31am:

During WWII, there were a number of attempts to assassinate Adolf Hitler, for obvious reasons. All failed, but by the end of the war, Allied leaders were actually grateful that those attempts had failed, for a surprising reason. Everyone who served Hitler, from his top Generals down were afraid of giving him news that he did not want to hear. It got to the point where he was making some decisions based on bad information, or information that his subordinates thought he would want to hear, not what he needed to hear, which is the truth. It lead to a serious of disastrous decisions that ultimately lead to Germany losing WWII.

Trump is falling into the same trap, and his administration officials are enabling this in their desire to bend over backwards in their attempts to please Trump and make him happy. This is bad for the country as a whole, because decisions will be made based on erroneous information and the people who will suffer the consequences will be ordinary Americans who can least afford it. While he may not have been happy with the data released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics, at least it was honest and he could make or change his plans accordingly. But because he thinks it's "fake news" and politically biased, he won't listen to this advice and will make bad decisions that will only make the situation worse, not better. Again, ordinary average Americans will pay the price.

Yes, as Napoleon said, 'Never interrupt the enemy when he is making a mistake.'

On the other side of that same coin, a great deal of damage was done while not 'interrupting' Hitler.

That "God' of whom Trump speaks is indeed a mysterious bastard.

Hitler, Napoleon - next, Belzebub.

This is NOT the Russian fron in winter, fellas. Get a grip.

This is dictators (also wannabe) and authoritarian leaders and how they are presented with MISinformation. Quite relevant, even if you disagree.

I took the liberty to corrrect your wording so it makes sense.

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« Last Edit: Aug 4^th, 2025 at 2:48pm by Frank »

Estragon: I can’t go on like this.
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Armchair_Politician

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Re: It's official: Trump IS a dictator
Reply #23 - Aug 4^th, 2025 at 2:23pm

Frank wrote on Aug 4^th, 2025 at 2:20pm:

Armchair_Politician wrote on Aug 4^th, 2025 at 2:16pm:

Frank wrote on Aug 4^th, 2025 at 2:05pm:

Aussie wrote on Aug 4^th, 2025 at 1:44pm:

Armchair_Politician wrote on Aug 4^th, 2025 at 11:31am:

During WWII, there were a number of attempts to assassinate Adolf Hitler, for obvious reasons. All failed, but by the end of the war, Allied leaders were actually grateful that those attempts had failed, for a surprising reason. Everyone who served Hitler, from his top Generals down were afraid of giving him news that he did not want to hear. It got to the point where he was making some decisions based on bad information, or information that his subordinates thought he would want to hear, not what he needed to hear, which is the truth. It lead to a serious of disastrous decisions that ultimately lead to Germany losing WWII.

Trump is falling into the same trap, and his administration officials are enabling this in their desire to bend over backwards in their attempts to please Trump and make him happy. This is bad for the country as a whole, because decisions will be made based on erroneous information and the people who will suffer the consequences will be ordinary Americans who can least afford it. While he may not have been happy with the data released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics, at least it was honest and he could make or change his plans accordingly. But because he thinks it's "fake news" and politically biased, he won't listen to this advice and will make bad decisions that will only make the situation worse, not better. Again, ordinary average Americans will pay the price.

Yes, as Napoleon said, 'Never interrupt the enemy when he is making a mistake.'

On the other side of that same coin, a great deal of damage was done while not 'interrupting' Hitler.

That "God' of whom Trump speaks is indeed a mysterious bastard.

Hitler, Napoleon - next, Belzebub.

This is NOT the Russian fron in winter, fellas. Get a grip.

This is dictators (also wannabe) and authoritarian leaders and how they are presented with MISinformation. Quite relevant, even if you disagree.

I took the liberty to coorrect your wording so it makes sense.

Riiiigggggghhhhhhhttttttttt - any information that doesn't fit their narrative or isn't politically convenient must surely be misinformation or fake news, correct? Gawd, you MAGA cult members are such dumbarses!

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greggerypeccary

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Re: It's official: Trump IS a dictator
Reply #24 - Aug 4^th, 2025 at 2:55pm

Frank wrote on Aug 4^th, 2025 at 2:05pm:

Aussie wrote on Aug 4^th, 2025 at 1:44pm:

Armchair_Politician wrote on Aug 4^th, 2025 at 11:31am:

During WWII, there were a number of attempts to assassinate Adolf Hitler, for obvious reasons. All failed, but by the end of the war, Allied leaders were actually grateful that those attempts had failed, for a surprising reason. Everyone who served Hitler, from his top Generals down were afraid of giving him news that he did not want to hear. It got to the point where he was making some decisions based on bad information, or information that his subordinates thought he would want to hear, not what he needed to hear, which is the truth. It lead to a serious of disastrous decisions that ultimately lead to Germany losing WWII.

Trump is falling into the same trap, and his administration officials are enabling this in their desire to bend over backwards in their attempts to please Trump and make him happy. This is bad for the country as a whole, because decisions will be made based on erroneous information and the people who will suffer the consequences will be ordinary Americans who can least afford it. While he may not have been happy with the data released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics, at least it was honest and he could make or change his plans accordingly. But because he thinks it's "fake news" and politically biased, he won't listen to this advice and will make bad decisions that will only make the situation worse, not better. Again, ordinary average Americans will pay the price.

Yes, as Napoleon said, 'Never interrupt the enemy when he is making a mistake.'

On the other side of that same coin, a great deal of damage was done while not 'interrupting' Hitler.

That "God' of whom Trump speaks is indeed a mysterious bastard.

Hitler, Napoleon - next, Belzebub.

This is NOT the Russian fron in winter, fellas. Get a grip.

The only thing necessary for the triumph of evil is for good men to do nothing.

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ProudKangaroo

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Re: It's official: Trump IS a dictator
Reply #25 - Aug 4^th, 2025 at 4:56pm

Frank wrote on Aug 4^th, 2025 at 2:03pm:

I thought the line was that DOGE didn't nake much difference.

To the budget bottom line, yeah. But the cut jobs were very real.

Stop deflecting.

Quote:

In any case, getting rid of unnecessary bureocracies is a good thing. And if YOU knew that the DOGE job losses were massive, why didn't the BLS? Hello?!?

As for job numbers, the monthly stats are NOT presented as vague estimates based on polling and guesstimates that will be second and third guessed in due course.

The first round of reporting are presented as estimates and forecasts. And they are as reported by companies. Everyone knows how this works, the system has been in place since the 1910s. Just because you didn't know doesn't mean everyone else is that dumb.

Quote:

People expect more solid and reliable infirmation. Markets, investors, pension funds etc are treating these reports as reliable, not as guesses based on guesses.

And that's what they get with the revisions.

Quote:

What use is a stats bureau if all it does is guesstimate and then revise, revise, revise in hindsight. No point in making monthly announcements of guessworks as if they were rigorous, scientific facts only to revise rhem wildly when actual facts come to hand.

We live in a speculative market, which underpins the entire capitalist structure. I'm sure you don't want to transition to socialism or communism, right?

If you have a problem with how the BLS release the job stats, and has done so for more than 100 years now, to borrow from your logic, why didn't you say anything under Biden?

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Frank

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Re: It's official: Trump IS a dictator
Reply #26 - Aug 4^th, 2025 at 5:22pm

greggerypeccary wrote on Aug 4^th, 2025 at 2:55pm:

Frank wrote on Aug 4^th, 2025 at 2:05pm:

Aussie wrote on Aug 4^th, 2025 at 1:44pm:

Armchair_Politician wrote on Aug 4^th, 2025 at 11:31am:

During WWII, there were a number of attempts to assassinate Adolf Hitler, for obvious reasons. All failed, but by the end of the war, Allied leaders were actually grateful that those attempts had failed, for a surprising reason. Everyone who served Hitler, from his top Generals down were afraid of giving him news that he did not want to hear. It got to the point where he was making some decisions based on bad information, or information that his subordinates thought he would want to hear, not what he needed to hear, which is the truth. It lead to a serious of disastrous decisions that ultimately lead to Germany losing WWII.

Trump is falling into the same trap, and his administration officials are enabling this in their desire to bend over backwards in their attempts to please Trump and make him happy. This is bad for the country as a whole, because decisions will be made based on erroneous information and the people who will suffer the consequences will be ordinary Americans who can least afford it. While he may not have been happy with the data released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics, at least it was honest and he could make or change his plans accordingly. But because he thinks it's "fake news" and politically biased, he won't listen to this advice and will make bad decisions that will only make the situation worse, not better. Again, ordinary average Americans will pay the price.

Yes, as Napoleon said, 'Never interrupt the enemy when he is making a mistake.'

On the other side of that same coin, a great deal of damage was done while not 'interrupting' Hitler.

That "God' of whom Trump speaks is indeed a mysterious bastard.

Hitler, Napoleon - next, Belzebub.

This is NOT the Russian fron in winter, fellas. Get a grip.

The only thing necessary for the triumph of evil is for good men to do nothing.

Well, your are neither a good man nor do anything.

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Frank

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Re: It's official: Trump IS a dictator
Reply #27 - Aug 4^th, 2025 at 5:24pm

ProudKangaroo wrote on Aug 4^th, 2025 at 4:56pm:

Frank wrote on Aug 4^th, 2025 at 2:03pm:

I thought the line was that DOGE didn't nake much difference.

To the budget bottom line, yeah. But the cut jobs were very real.

Stop deflecting.

Quote:

In any case, getting rid of unnecessary bureocracies is a good thing. And if YOU knew that the DOGE job losses were massive, why didn't the BLS? Hello?!?

As for job numbers, the monthly stats are NOT presented as vague estimates based on polling and guesstimates that will be second and third guessed in due course.

The first round of reporting are presented as estimates and forecasts. And they are as reported by companies. Everyone knows how this works, the system has been in place since the 1910s. Just because you didn't know doesn't mean everyone else is that dumb.

Quote:

People expect more solid and reliable infirmation. Markets, investors, pension funds etc are treating these reports as reliable, not as guesses based on guesses.

And that's what they get with the revisions.

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What use is a stats bureau if all it does is guesstimate and then revise, revise, revise in hindsight. No point in making monthly announcements of guessworks as if they were rigorous, scientific facts only to revise rhem wildly when actual facts come to hand.

We live in a speculative market, which underpins the entire capitalist structure. I'm sure you don't want to transition to socialism or communism, right?

If you have a problem with how the BLS release the job stats, and has done so for more than 100 years now, to borrow from your logic, why didn't you say anything under Biden?

Well, call is the Bureau of Labor Speculations then.
But if you did you wouldn't need it at all. Everyone can speculate for free.

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John Smith Gold Member Offline Australian Politics Posts: 77730 Gender:	Re: It's official: Trump IS a dictator Reply #28 - Aug 4^th, 2025 at 5:58pm Frank wrote on Aug 4^th, 2025 at 5:24pm: Well, call is the Bureau of Labor Speculations then it's not the BLS speculating you dumbarse, it's the companies they poll
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greggerypeccary

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Re: It's official: Trump IS a dictator
Reply #29 - Aug 4^th, 2025 at 6:05pm

Frank wrote on Aug 4^th, 2025 at 5:22pm:

greggerypeccary wrote on Aug 4^th, 2025 at 2:55pm:

Frank wrote on Aug 4^th, 2025 at 2:05pm:

Aussie wrote on Aug 4^th, 2025 at 1:44pm:

Armchair_Politician wrote on Aug 4^th, 2025 at 11:31am:

During WWII, there were a number of attempts to assassinate Adolf Hitler, for obvious reasons. All failed, but by the end of the war, Allied leaders were actually grateful that those attempts had failed, for a surprising reason. Everyone who served Hitler, from his top Generals down were afraid of giving him news that he did not want to hear. It got to the point where he was making some decisions based on bad information, or information that his subordinates thought he would want to hear, not what he needed to hear, which is the truth. It lead to a serious of disastrous decisions that ultimately lead to Germany losing WWII.

Trump is falling into the same trap, and his administration officials are enabling this in their desire to bend over backwards in their attempts to please Trump and make him happy. This is bad for the country as a whole, because decisions will be made based on erroneous information and the people who will suffer the consequences will be ordinary Americans who can least afford it. While he may not have been happy with the data released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics, at least it was honest and he could make or change his plans accordingly. But because he thinks it's "fake news" and politically biased, he won't listen to this advice and will make bad decisions that will only make the situation worse, not better. Again, ordinary average Americans will pay the price.

Yes, as Napoleon said, 'Never interrupt the enemy when he is making a mistake.'

On the other side of that same coin, a great deal of damage was done while not 'interrupting' Hitler.

That "God' of whom Trump speaks is indeed a mysterious bastard.

Hitler, Napoleon - next, Belzebub.

This is NOT the Russian fron in winter, fellas. Get a grip.

The only thing necessary for the triumph of evil is for good men to do nothing.

Well, your are neither a good man nor do anything.

Stop defending paedophiles and rapists.

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