And it's just gonna get worse.

A whole lot worse.

During WWII, there were a number of attempts to assassinate Adolf Hitler, for obvious reasons. All failed, but by the end of the war, Allied leaders were actually grateful that those attempts had failed, for a surprising reason. Everyone who served Hitler, from his top Generals down were afraid of giving him news that he did not want to hear. It got to the point where he was making some decisions based on bad information, or information that his subordinates thought he would want to hear, not what he needed to hear, which is the truth. It lead to a serious of disastrous decisions that ultimately lead to Germany losing WWII.

Trump is falling into the same trap, and his administration officials are enabling this in their desire to bend over backwards in their attempts to please Trump and make him happy. This is bad for the country as a whole, because decisions will be made based on erroneous information and the people who will suffer the consequences will be ordinary Americans who can least afford it. While he may not have been happy with the data released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics, at least it was honest and he could make or change his plans accordingly. But because he thinks it's "fake news" and politically biased, he won't listen to this advice and will make bad decisions that will only make the situation worse, not better. Again, ordinary average Americans will pay the price.

Frank wrote on Aug 4^th, 2025 at 11:33am:


Grow up frank, numbers get revised all the time, go take a look at history. Your TDS is killing you frank,plus it makes you look dumb.

Frank wrote on Aug 4^th, 2025 at 11:33am:


That was an estimate, which I'm assuming was revised down due to the effects of Trumps' tariffs beginning to be felt in the US economy and workforce. Also, as a direct result of the Trump firings of government workers and contractors, the federal government shed 12,000 jobs in July and has lost some 84,000 workers since the beginning of the year. Factories shed 11,000 jobs in July. As you can see clearly, the results of Trumps' disastrous economic and trade policies are coming home to roost!

Frank wrote on Aug 4^th, 2025 at 12:26pm:


All forecasts are subject to revision. No one has a crystal ball or an ability to see into the future - especially with THIS halfwit of a President the Yanks have now. I think MOST people understand and accept that forecasts are just that - an estimation. Clearly, you (and other Trumptards suffering from extreme TDS) do not. But hey, that's your problem - not mine!

Quote:


That has been known since at least 2016 ? Never in doubt.

Frank wrote on Aug 4^th, 2025 at 11:33am:


You don't understand how any of this works do you Frank? 

Stop relying on information that backs up what you want to believe, and start educating yourself on how the system actually works.

Short Answer:

In the simplest terms, the BLS ask companies how many people they estimate they will hire.

Companies give an estimate.

A few months later they give the actual number they hired.

The estimates are now revised to the actual number.

That's it.

Long Answer:

In more detail, the most important thing to understand is that the BLS does not directly estimate the number of jobs gained or lost each month.

They are estimating the total number of employees (payroll positions) each month. The job growth/loss numbers are just the difference between the monthly total estimates.

Between this release for July 2025 and the June 2025 release last month

The estimate for the total number of employees in May fell from 159,577,000 to 159,452,000.

The estimated number of employees in June fell from 159,724,000 to 159,466,000.

Those are revisions of -0.08% for May and -0.16% for June.

The problem with the growth/loss estimates is that even good growth is just a tiny fraction of the total number of jobs. For example, 300,000 jobs is just 0.18% of 159.5 million jobs. It doesn't take a large revision to the total number of jobs to make a huge change in the number of jobs added or lost.

You should definitely take the monthly job growth/loss numbers with a grain of salt. Especially the initial number, before the first and second revisions.

I wish media outlets emphasised this more.

But that's a problem with how this particular statistic is estimated. It's not an indictment of all or even most of the data that BLS publishes.

As for why there are frequent revisions, the main reason is that they get more data.

CES estimates are considered preliminary when first published each month because not all respondents report their payroll data by the initial release of employment, hours, and earnings. BLS continues to collect payroll data and revises estimates twice before the annual benchmark update (see benchmark revisions section below).

https://www.bls.gov/opub/hom/ces/presentation.htm#revisions

And you can find statistics on the past monthly revisions here:

https://www.bls.gov/web/empsit/cesnaicsrev.htm#Summary

Did you honestly not think there'd be a massive impact on job numbers with all the firing that DOGE did that you celebrated?