How safe is gambling on the Australian real estate sector atm ?

The unwinding yen carry trade could crater Treasuries, drive gold prices to new record highs

https://www.kitco.com/news/article/2025-05-21/unwinding-yen-carry-trade-could-cr...

Yields on Japan’s long-dated 30-year bonds rose to a record high of 3.2% on Wednesday, following the government’s worst bond auction in decades.

Although Japanese yields remain low compared to U.S. bonds—with 30-year Treasury yields currently around 5%

Fawad Razaqzada, Market Analyst at City Index and FOREX.com, described the selloff as a “seismic shift” in the global marketplace.

“With inflation finally baring its teeth and the Bank of Japan slowly tiptoeing toward policy normalisation, the once-lucrative yen carry trade – borrow yen at zero and plough it into anything yielding more – could be coming undone again as we saw last summer,” he said.


SYDNEY -- Japanese direct investment in Australia reached a record 141.1 billion Australian dollars ($84.7 billion) in 2024, driven by real estate and resources projects.

https://asia.nikkei.com/Economy/Japan-shatters-investment-record-in-Australia-le...



So, how safe is gambling on the Australian real estate sector really ?

Jasin wrote on May 28^th, 2025 at 9:04am:


Looks like no end in sight to increasing house prices:




May 28, 2025

In this interview with Andrew Bolt at Sky News, I discuss the National Housing Supply and Affordabiity Council's (NHSAC) latest State of the Market Report, which forecasts a deepening housing shortage and rental crisis as immigration demand continues to exceed new housing supply.
NHSAC's report shows in black and white that the primary solution to Australia's housing shortage is to cut net overseas migration to a level below the nation's capacity to build housing and infrastructure.

Another issue with Australian housing is the terrible quality of the houses themselves. Particularly anything built in the last 20 years.
Houses and units simply riddle with minor and major defects and design faults.
Apartment blocks simply collapsing or in fear of collapse.
The end result of labor privatisation of the building inspection scheme to private enterprise ?

It’s never cost as much in this country too build a building and yet the quality of these builds have never been so substandard.