Australian Politics Forum - Antarctica gains 180 billion tons of ice

Jasin Gold Member Offline Posts: 54609 Gender:	Re: Antarctica gains 180 billion tons of ice Reply #30 - May 15^th, 2025 at 6:33pm chimera wrote on May 15^th, 2025 at 4:51pm: Jasin wrote on May 15^th, 2025 at 4:42pm: The weather changes every day. The weather changes every day. The weather changes every day. Green Antarctica for easier habitation and Real Estate agents. the only intelligent species jAsin rote tHis I sure did.
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Sir Grappler Truth Teller OAM

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Re: Antarctica gains 180 billion tons of ice
Reply #31 - May 15^th, 2025 at 6:52pm

lee wrote on May 15^th, 2025 at 6:10pm:

greggerypeccary wrote on May 15^th, 2025 at 6:03pm:

"Scientific inquiry often involves speculation, particularly in the early stages of investigation when scientists are formulating hypotheses and developing research questions.

So in the early stages. So are we in the "early", "mid" or "late" stages? Wink

Speculation is not data. Does the speculation match the data? Or is it too early to go full blown alarmist? It is data on which scientists should rely. Wink

Once again - here is a thing I posted elsewhere:-

"Of course - a mistake often made is assuming that a 'study' is finished and complete and reflects full 'truth' or 'reality' - when it is a contributing part of developing knowledge.... all knowledge is constantly evolving. There is no 'The Science' as in some finished product."

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“Facts are stubborn things; and whatever may be our wishes, our inclinations, or the dictates of our passion, they cannot alter the state of facts and evidence.”
― John Adams

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lee

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Re: Antarctica gains 180 billion tons of ice
Reply #32 - May 15^th, 2025 at 7:15pm

chimera wrote on May 15^th, 2025 at 6:28pm:

Ths NSIDC graphs I quoted are data.

The Sea Ice "Data" from NSIDC is obtained from satellite. The satellites have difficulty with distinguishing water from ice. They also smooth the output. Once you smooth the output it is no longer data,

"This page shows northern and southern hemisphere daily sea-ice extent timeseries and concentration maps estimated from satellite data onward from late 1978. The timeseries source is the Sea Ice Index developed by the National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC). Each daily value represents a 5-day mean to smooth noise in the satellite data. The sea-ice concentration maps are generated from 0.5°x0.5° analysis fields from the NCEP Climate Forecast System. Click the cursor on a timeseries data value to update the corresponding map. NSIDC maintains a web interface for the Sea Ice Index here. Data and maps update daily with a one-day lag from observations. "

https://climatereanalyzer.org/clim/seaice_daily/

A 0.5x0.5 grid at the poles (actually about 66 degrees x 80 degrees rather than 90) is about 55 sq km. Wink

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chimera Gold Member Offline Australian Politics Posts: 13650 Armidale Gender:	Re: Antarctica gains 180 billion tons of ice Reply #33 - May 15^th, 2025 at 7:19pm Yes, data and not model. Where are the models you claim are the basis of the article?
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lee Gold Member Offline Australian Politics Posts: 19754 Gender:	Re: Antarctica gains 180 billion tons of ice Reply #34 - May 15^th, 2025 at 7:37pm chimera wrote on May 15^th, 2025 at 7:19pm: Yes, data and not model. What do you think the smoothing is? And then the fudge factor of 55 sq km.
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chimera Gold Member Offline Australian Politics Posts: 13650 Armidale Gender:	Re: Antarctica gains 180 billion tons of ice Reply #35 - May 15^th, 2025 at 7:54pm Smoothing is a trend line for standard data. It's irrational to demand sq metres in a sea. No models yet?
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lee

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Re: Antarctica gains 180 billion tons of ice
Reply #36 - May 15^th, 2025 at 8:57pm

chimera wrote on May 15^th, 2025 at 7:54pm:

It's irrational to demand sq metres in a sea.

Really? Square km's have nothing to do with sea ice extent (AREA)? Grin

chimera wrote on May 15^th, 2025 at 7:54pm:

No models yet?

What do you think they use for smoothing? An algorithm. An algorithm is used to produce a modelled output.

"A model in data science is the output produced when an algorithm applies to a specific dataset."

https://medium.com/@wilsonkai/what-is-a-model-vs-algorithm-0a70788e63b1

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Sir Grappler Truth Teller OAM Gold Member Offline Australian Politics Posts: 89472 Proud Old White Australian Man Gender:	Re: Antarctica gains 180 billion tons of ice Reply #37 - May 15^th, 2025 at 10:21pm The icecaps are melting at such a rate that the ice is piling up higher and higher.... we're all doomed!
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chimera

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Re: Antarctica gains 180 billion tons of ice
Reply #38 - May 16^th, 2025 at 7:51am

The Arctic is 14mill sq kms. A 55sq km area is appropriate for a total area trend.

'Data smoothing is done by using an algorithm to remove noise from a data set. This allows important patterns to more clearly stand out. Data smoothing can be used to help predict trends, such as those found in securities prices, as well as in economic analysis. Data smoothing is intended to ignore one-time outliers and take into account the effects of seasonality.'

Compared to speculation, the smoothed data is correct for the basic q.: is the total area or volume changing significantly?

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chimera

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Re: Antarctica gains 180 billion tons of ice
Reply #39 - May 16^th, 2025 at 8:15am

'The method classifies surface coverage into three main categories: snow and bare ice, melt ponds and submerged ice, and open water. The method is demonstrated on imagery from four sensor platforms and on imagery spanning from spring thaw to fall freeze-up. Tests show the classification accuracy of this method typically exceeds 96 %'.
https://tc.copernicus.org/articles/12/1307/2018/tc-12-1307-2018.pdf

'The overall classification accuracy for the four general classes is 95.5% based on 178 ground reference objects. Furthermore, the producer's accuracy of 90.8% and user's accuracy of 91.8% are achieved for melt pond detection through 98 independent reference objects'.
https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0165232X15001433

As not all Australia's houses have reported today's temperature, it is likely that we are under 3 metres of snow.

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Gnads

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Re: Antarctica gains 180 billion tons of ice
Reply #40 - May 16^th, 2025 at 12:06pm

philperth2010 wrote on May 15^th, 2025 at 4:56pm:

greggerypeccary wrote on May 15^th, 2025 at 4:24pm:

philperth2010 wrote on May 15^th, 2025 at 4:15pm:

lee wrote on May 15^th, 2025 at 4:10pm:

philperth2010 wrote on May 15^th, 2025 at 4:06pm:

Enhanced mass loss of the Totten, Moscow, Denman, and Vincennes Bay glacier basins, East Antarctica

The four key glacier basins in WL-QML region, i.e., Totten, Moscow University, Denman, and Vincennes Bay, exhibited mass loss intensification with a rate of 47.64±8.14 Gt/yr during 2011-2020, compared to 2002-2010, with the loss area expanding inland. The researchers explained “this accelerated mass loss was primarily driven by two factors: surface mass reduction (contributing 72.53%) and increased ice discharge (27.47%).”

Notably, the complete disintegration of these four glaciers could potentially trigger a global mean sea level rise exceeding 7 meters. Their pronounced ablation patterns already constitute a critical climate warning signal, warranting greater scientific attention to their stability.

Reference: “Spatiotemporal mass change rate analysis from 2002 to 2023 over the Antarctic Ice Sheet and four glacier basins in Wilkes-Queen Mary Land” by Wei Wang, Yunzhong Shen, Qiujie Chen, Fengwei Wang and Yangkang Yu, 19 March 2025, Science China Earth Sciences.

And the SLR is still about 3mm per year. Potential? What is the time line on this "potential". At 3mm per year that would be 2100 years or thereabouts., Oh noes PANIC.

From the experts you chose to quote....A critical climate warning signal....The message is clear!!!

https://scitechdaily.com/antarcticas-astonishing-rebound-ice-sheet-grows-for-the...

Roll Eyes

Who should we believe - scientists, or lee? Undecided

Is there such a thing as alternative science or selective science....I think Lee has mastered the art!!!

Cool

There has been in the past & more so now "Bought Science" aka science for hire.

It's all about money.

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"When you are dead, you do not know you are dead. It's only painful and difficult for others. The same applies when you are stupid." ~ Ricky Gervais

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chimera

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Re: Antarctica gains 180 billion tons of ice
Reply #41 - May 16^th, 2025 at 12:41pm

'Ship voyages in the Arctic have increased significantly due to declining sea ice, opening up new routes and making the region more accessible to ships. From 2013 to 2023, the number of unique ships operating in the Arctic Polar Code area increased by 37%, and the distance they sailed increased by 111%'.

Science uses thermometers and ship-owners use dollars.

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lee

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Re: Antarctica gains 180 billion tons of ice
Reply #42 - May 16^th, 2025 at 1:06pm

chimera wrote on May 16^th, 2025 at 7:51am:

The Arctic is 14mill sq kms. A 55sq km area is appropriate for a total area trend.

A 55 sq km is the size of ONE 0.5x0.5 grid. Grid size area increases as you get further away from the poles. If they were all one area it would take over 254,000 grid cells, each with its own error bars. Wink

chimera wrote on May 16^th, 2025 at 7:51am:

Compared to speculation, the smoothed data is correct for the basic q.: is the total area or volume changing significantly?

So you say there are no error bars in their calculations. R-i-i-ght. Grin

"As 1 example year, we find that in 2015 the average observational uncertainties of the SIA are 306 000 km2 for daily estimates, 275 000 km2 for weekly estimates, and 164 000 km2 for monthly estimates. "

https://tc.copernicus.org/articles/18/2473/2024/

BTW - Multiple measurements do NOT decrease uncertainty. So they are wrong about that.

chimera wrote on May 16^th, 2025 at 8:15am:

ests show the classification accuracy of this method typically exceeds 96 %'.

So let's see only 4% wrong. How much is 4% you ask? Only 560,000 sq km. Good enough for government work.

chimera wrote on May 16^th, 2025 at 12:41pm:

'Ship voyages in the Arctic have increased significantly due to declining sea ice, opening up new routes and making the region more accessible to ships. From 2013 to 2023, the number of unique ships operating in the Arctic Polar Code area increased by 37%, and the distance they sailed increased by 111%'.

Science uses thermometers and ship-owners use dollars.

And they STILL use ice breakers. Russia is building bigger and stronger, why is that? Ship owners build ice breakers. Could it be Sea Ice also hasoscillations, you know like AMO and most things, or is it all Climate Change? Wink

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chimera

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Re: Antarctica gains 180 billion tons of ice
Reply #43 - May 16^th, 2025 at 2:17pm

lee wrote on May 16^th, 2025 at 1:06pm:

"As 1 example year, we find that in 2015 the average observational uncertainties of the SIA are 306 000 km2 for daily estimates, 275 000 km2 for weekly estimates, and 164 000 km2 for monthly estimates. "

That's about 1.2- 2.1%.
'In 2025, Arctic sea ice volume .. a 35% drop compared to the long-term average (1993-2010). The sea ice extent, at 13.98 million km², is also 6% below the long-term average.'

chimera wrote on May 16^th, 2025 at 12:41pm:

'Ship voyages in the Arctic have increased significantly due to declining sea ice, opening up new routes and making the region more accessible to ships. From 2013 to 2023, the number of unique ships operating in the Arctic Polar Code area increased by 37%, and the distance they sailed increased by 111%'.

And they still use woollen socks and watch for icebergs. About 111% more often. And avoid 96.8395% of them, sailing down the trend line to lee-ward (who is 85% desperate and 15% hair-splitting).

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lee

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Re: Antarctica gains 180 billion tons of ice
Reply #44 - May 16^th, 2025 at 2:40pm

chimera wrote on May 16^th, 2025 at 2:17pm:

That's about 1.2- 2.1%.
'In 2025, Arctic sea ice volume .. a 35% drop compared to the long-term average (1993-2010). The sea ice extent, at 13.98 million km², is also 6% below the long-term average.'

Your reference said 4%. That's what I was using. Wink

chimera wrote on May 16^th, 2025 at 8:15am:

Tests show the classification accuracy of this method typically exceeds 96 %

You do know sea ice was increasing before satellites, don't you? What does that tell you? Probably nothing. To you, it is all doom and gloom.

But tell us just exactly is the long-term average? What is the timeframe of this long-term average? Roll Eyes

chimera wrote on May 16^th, 2025 at 2:17pm:

And they still use woollen socks and watch for icebergs

Yes they do. And still not ice free Arctic. They even had to change the meaning of "ice free". Now it is only 1 million sq kms. So only about 1400% above ice free. Wink

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