Australian Politics Forum - Sky News into full blown poll denialism

ProudKangaroo

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Sky News into full blown poll denialism
Apr 24^th, 2025 at 12:18pm

Sky News into full blown poll denialism

Quote:

Tonight I'm going to tell you how the polls you are reading in the news are wrong when it comes to this federal election and what's really going on here. Most national polls have been showing Labor ahead, and some have even pointed to a Majority Government for Labor.

But this is a fantasy.

Now you need to remember that the polls are simply a national survey of around 1300 or so voters. It's like a thumb in the wind to see the national mood. Because this, more than any other, is a hyper-localised election, it doesn't matter what the national opinion is from 1000 or so voters out of 18 million registered voters.

Sharri Markson says you can't trust the polls, unless they say what we want them to, as they did 10 months ago:

Polling reveals who Australians see as a ‘decisive and stronger leader’

Quote:

Newspoll, which is one of the country’s most respected polls also found Dutton is just ahead of Albanese when it comes to the question of which leader understands the major issues better.

At the end of the day, she's right that the only poll that counts is the one on election day, but boy oh boy is Sky News shook and about to OD on copium.

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Daves2017 Gold Member Offline Australian Politics Posts: 1788 Gender:	Re: Sky News into full blown poll denialism Reply #1 - Apr 24^th, 2025 at 12:36pm Fake news 🤣😂
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greggerypeccary Gold Member Offline Australian Politics Posts: 141950 Gender:	Re: Sky News into full blown poll denialism Reply #2 - Apr 24^th, 2025 at 12:39pm I still laugh out loud when I see the words 'Sky' and 'News' together But yes, the only poll that counts is the one on election day. So, let's wait until then and see what happens
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lee

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Re: Sky News into full blown poll denialism
Reply #3 - Apr 24^th, 2025 at 1:48pm

ProudKangaroo wrote on Apr 24^th, 2025 at 12:18pm:

Sharri Markson says you can't trust the polls, unless they say what we want them to, as they did 10 months ago:

Nope. I believe the election will be close. But she is right. The numbers are a SMALL subset of the voting population. And past results are no indicator of future performance. Wink

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ProudKangaroo

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Re: Sky News into full blown poll denialism
Reply #4 - Apr 24^th, 2025 at 2:38pm

lee wrote on Apr 24^th, 2025 at 1:48pm:

ProudKangaroo wrote on Apr 24^th, 2025 at 12:18pm:

Sharri Markson says you can't trust the polls, unless they say what we want them to, as they did 10 months ago:

Nope. I believe the election will be close. But she is right. The numbers are a SMALL subset of the voting population. And past results are no indicator of future performance. Wink

Yes, but that only matters when the polls show a result they don't like.

Otherwise it's information from "one of the country’s most respected polls"...

The fact that they need to convince their audience that everything is ok means that they're worried.

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John Smith Gold Member Offline Australian Politics Posts: 76100 Gender:	Re: Sky News into full blown poll denialism Reply #5 - Apr 24^th, 2025 at 2:41pm lee wrote on Apr 24^th, 2025 at 1:48pm: But she is right. The numbers are a SMALL subset of the voting population not what they were saying when rudd and gillards poll numbers came up
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Bobby. Gold Member Offline Australian Politics Posts: 109510 Melbourne Gender:	Re: Sky News into full blown poll denialism Reply #6 - Apr 24^th, 2025 at 2:54pm Sportsbet predicts an easy win for Labor: Labor 1.22 Coalition 4.30 https://www.sportsbet.com.au/betting/politics/australian-federal-politics/48th-p...
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lee Gold Member Offline Australian Politics Posts: 18321 Gender:	Re: Sky News into full blown poll denialism Reply #7 - Apr 24^th, 2025 at 3:11pm John Smith wrote on Apr 24^th, 2025 at 2:41pm: not what they were saying when rudd and gillards poll numbers came up What part of "And past results are no indicator of future performance" didn't you understand?
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lee Gold Member Offline Australian Politics Posts: 18321 Gender:	Re: Sky News into full blown poll denialism Reply #8 - Apr 24^th, 2025 at 3:12pm ProudKangaroo wrote on Apr 24^th, 2025 at 2:38pm: Otherwise it's information from "one of the country’s most respected polls"... The fact that they need to convince their audience that everything is ok means that they're worried. And that is all supposition.
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John Smith

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Re: Sky News into full blown poll denialism
Reply #9 - Apr 24^th, 2025 at 3:16pm

lee wrote on Apr 24^th, 2025 at 3:11pm:

John Smith wrote on Apr 24^th, 2025 at 2:41pm:

not what they were saying when rudd and gillards poll numbers came up

What part of "And past results are no indicator of future performance" didn't you understand? Roll Eyes

what part of "And past results are no indicator of future performance" is even relevant to my comment? Roll Eyes

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Our esteemed leader:
I hope that bitch who was running their brothels for them gets raped with a cactus.

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greggerypeccary

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Re: Sky News into full blown poll denialism
Reply #10 - Apr 24^th, 2025 at 3:38pm

lee wrote on Apr 24^th, 2025 at 1:48pm:

ProudKangaroo wrote on Apr 24^th, 2025 at 12:18pm:

Sharri Markson says you can't trust the polls, unless they say what we want them to, as they did 10 months ago:

Nope. I believe the election will be close. But she is right. The numbers are a SMALL subset of the voting population.

I gather from that response that you never studied statistics at Uni.

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lee Gold Member Offline Australian Politics Posts: 18321 Gender:	Re: Sky News into full blown poll denialism Reply #11 - Apr 24^th, 2025 at 3:41pm greggerypeccary wrote on Apr 24^th, 2025 at 3:38pm: I gather from that response that you never studied statistics at Uni. I gather you forgot about normal distributions. Country vs City plus others.
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greggerypeccary Gold Member Offline Australian Politics Posts: 141950 Gender:	Re: Sky News into full blown poll denialism Reply #12 - Apr 24^th, 2025 at 3:48pm lee wrote on Apr 24^th, 2025 at 3:41pm: greggerypeccary wrote on Apr 24^th, 2025 at 3:38pm: I gather from that response that you never studied statistics at Uni. I gather you forgot about normal distributions. Country vs City plus others. You didn't have to confirm my hunch, but thanks for doing so.
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Gnads

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Re: Sky News into full blown poll denialism
Reply #13 - Apr 24^th, 2025 at 3:52pm

If people have already forgotten about the Voice referendum & the implications had that got up ...

then they are very foolish indeed.

Because if Albanese gets another 3 years he's going to take that as starters orders to push his Aboriginal & mass immigration agendas further.

The ads say it all - Australia cannot afford another 3 years of Labor.

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"When you are dead, you do not know you are dead. It's only painful and difficult for others. The same applies when you are stupid." ~ Ricky Gervais

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philperth2010 Gold Member Online Australian Politics Posts: 20798 Perth Gender:	Re: Sky News into full blown poll denialism Reply #14 - Apr 24^th, 2025 at 3:58pm In the current world political climate I would not take notice of polls....There is too much volatility and unknowns to pick any winner....Albanese and Dutton are both below standard....Independants and Minor Paties might take the undecided!!!
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