thegreatdivide wrote on Mar 6
th, 2025 at 4:39pm:
Bayesian analysis is a statistical method that uses probability to answer research questions. It's based on Bayes' theorem, which combines prior knowledge with new data.....
And the prior knowledge was?
And of course the further you go back in time the wider the uncertainty.
"A statistical model can be seen as a procedure/story describing how some data came to be. A Bayesian model is a statistical model where you use probability
to represent all uncertainty within the model, both the uncertainty regarding the output but also the uncertainty regarding the input (aka parameters) to the model. The whole prior/posterior/Bayes theorem thing follows on this, but in my opinion, using probability for everything is what makes it Bayesian (and indeed a better word would perhaps just be something like probabilistic model)."
And nowhere do they discuss this uncertainty.
Dr Hobbs - "He said further research was needed to better understand the cause and effect of the altered conditions in the Southern Ocean."
Aka - send more money.
Strange how the increased ocean temperature only affects the WAIS.
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