Australian Politics Forum - What Was the Deal in Syria?

MeisterEckhart

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What Was the Deal in Syria?
Dec 9^th, 2024 at 10:44am

Given Russia's sudden exit from supporting the Assad regime, it's likely a plan and ultimatum has been put to Putin.

Iran is to be isolated and contained.

The Muslim Middle East is to be a Sunni hegemony.

Israel will be defended at whatever cost to Shia states.

The Ukraine war is to end and Russia will only have negotiating powers on territory retention that it can prove it can hold.

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MeisterEckhart

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Re: What Was the Deal in Syria?
Reply #1 - Dec 9^th, 2024 at 10:55am

MeisterEckhart wrote on Dec 9^th, 2024 at 10:44am:

Given Russia's sudden exit from supporting the Assad regime, it's likely a plan and ultimatum has been put to Putin.

Iran is to be isolated and contained.

The Muslim Middle East is to be a Sunni hegemony.

Israel will be defended at whatever cost to Shia states.

The Ukraine war is to end and Russia will only have negotiating powers on territory retention that it can prove it can hold.

And China is watching.

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Captain Nemo Gold Member Offline Australian Politics Posts: 11827 Melbourne Gender:	Re: What Was the Deal in Syria? Reply #2 - Dec 9^th, 2024 at 10:59am Syria is a pile of rubble, so is Gaza. Who wants to rule those two dumps?
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MeisterEckhart Gold Member Offline Australian Politics Posts: 14574 Gender:	Re: What Was the Deal in Syria? Reply #3 - Dec 9^th, 2024 at 11:01am Captain Nemo wrote on Dec 9^th, 2024 at 10:59am: Syria is a pile of rubble, so is Gaza. Who wants to rule those two dumps? Syrians and Palestinians.
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Daves2017 Gold Member Offline Australian Politics Posts: 1905 Gender:	Re: What Was the Deal in Syria? Reply #4 - Dec 9^th, 2024 at 11:50am It’s all quite fascinating. I’m far from a being an expert on the Middle East. I have heard the rebel leader talk that he wants peace with all neighbours and especially mentioned Israel. I can only hope that his words aren’t empty and peace returns to their lands.
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MeisterEckhart

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Re: What Was the Deal in Syria?
Reply #5 - Dec 9^th, 2024 at 1:29pm

I'd bet the Biden Administration and Trump are in lockstep with a Middle East plan and ultimatum to Putin.

Biden is probably more at ease working with Trump on this than he would have been with Harris who was, at best, a DEI pick but chosen as much for her inabilities and incompetencies as her ethnicity and gender, if not more.

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Baronvonrort

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Re: What Was the Deal in Syria?
Reply #6 - Dec 9^th, 2024 at 4:20pm

MeisterEckhart wrote on Dec 9^th, 2024 at 10:44am:

Given Russia's sudden exit from supporting the Assad regime, it's likely a plan and ultimatum has been put to Putin.

Erdogan gave an ultimatum to Assad which he rejected.

Last time the terrorists tried to overthrow Assad Russia bombed the crap out of them.

These terrorists led by Erdogan realised Russia was weakened by war in Ukraine and likely unable to defend Syria like last time.

They would have realised Iran is a paper tiger who wouldn't defend Syria after Iran let Israel destroy Hamas and Hezbollah.

This is what happened in Syria last time they tried to overthrow Assad.

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syria_assad_putin_003.jpg (232 KB | 6 )

Leftists and the Ayatollahs have a lot in common when it comes to criticism of Islam, they don't tolerate it.

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MeisterEckhart

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Re: What Was the Deal in Syria?
Reply #7 - Dec 9^th, 2024 at 4:37pm

Baronvonrort wrote on Dec 9^th, 2024 at 4:20pm:

MeisterEckhart wrote on Dec 9^th, 2024 at 10:44am:

Given Russia's sudden exit from supporting the Assad regime, it's likely a plan and ultimatum has been put to Putin.

Erdogan gave an ultimatum to Assad which he rejected.

Last time the terrorists tried to overthrow Assad Russia bombed the crap out of them.

These terrorists led by Erdogan realised Russia was weakened by war in Ukraine and likely unable to defend Syria like last time.

They would have realised Iran is a paper tiger who wouldn't defend Syria after Iran let Israel destroy Hamas and Hezbollah.

This is what happened in Syria last time they tried to overthrow Assad.

The way things are going for the Shi'ite Iranian Islamic Republic's leading Mullahs, they'll all be dead and beheaded by this time next year. They're lucky if they have 10% support of the Iranians.

They could only fight Israel by proxy without risking a declaration of war...

Well, it's over now... Hezbollah will be a dead force before the Syrians are through disinterring and desecrating the corpses of dead al-Assads.

Expect mass desertions and defections soon from Iran's IRGC as they cut deals and get out of it before it all comes crashing down.

Hamas is the next pig to the slaughter.

Iran's only hope is that the US and the region keep the Islamic Republic on life support while Syria settles.

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Frank

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Re: What Was the Deal in Syria?
Reply #8 - Dec 9^th, 2024 at 4:51pm

MeisterEckhart wrote on Dec 9^th, 2024 at 4:37pm:

Baronvonrort wrote on Dec 9^th, 2024 at 4:20pm:

MeisterEckhart wrote on Dec 9^th, 2024 at 10:44am:

Given Russia's sudden exit from supporting the Assad regime, it's likely a plan and ultimatum has been put to Putin.

Erdogan gave an ultimatum to Assad which he rejected.

Last time the terrorists tried to overthrow Assad Russia bombed the crap out of them.

These terrorists led by Erdogan realised Russia was weakened by war in Ukraine and likely unable to defend Syria like last time.

They would have realised Iran is a paper tiger who wouldn't defend Syria after Iran let Israel destroy Hamas and Hezbollah.

This is what happened in Syria last time they tried to overthrow Assad.

The way things are going for the Shi'ite Iranian Islamic Republic's leading Mullahs, they'll all be dead and beheaded by this time next year. They're lucky if they have 10% support of the Iranians.

They could only fight Israel by proxy without risking a declaration of war...

Well, it's over now... Hezbollah will be a dead force before the Syrians are through disinterring and desecrating the corpses of dead al-Assads.

Expect mass desertions and defections soon from Iran's IRGC as they cut deals and get out of it before it all comes crashing down.

Hamas is the next pig to the slaughter.

Iran's only hope is that the US and the region keep the Islamic Republic on life support while Syria settles.

Not happening with Trump.

After Jan 20 it's goodnight.

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Estragon: I can’t go on like this.
Vladimir: That’s what you think.

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MeisterEckhart

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Re: What Was the Deal in Syria?
Reply #9 - Dec 10^th, 2024 at 7:38am

Before we all get too pissed on the vodka of an Arab Spring 2.0, what happened to the Arab states that were involved in the 1.0 version.

Of the six nations directly affected by AS1.0—Tunisia, Egypt, Bahrain, Yemen, Libya, and Syria—only one, Tunisia, has maintained a more democratic state since 2011.

The other five countries’ political rights and civil liberties over the 13 years since 2011, AS1.0 resulted in significantly fewer political rights and civil liberties.

The chances that al-Assad's downfall, replaced by groups directly spawned from al Qaeda and ISIS, will lead to AS2.0, are extremely low.

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Frank Gold Member Offline Australian Politics Posts: 50474 Gender:	Re: What Was the Deal in Syria? Reply #10 - Dec 10^th, 2024 at 9:40am The Sunnis in Syria will make ISIS great again for a while and the ayatollahs in Iran get toppled.
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MeisterEckhart Gold Member Offline Australian Politics Posts: 14574 Gender:	Re: What Was the Deal in Syria? Reply #11 - Dec 10^th, 2024 at 9:54am The region produces either stable autocracies or psychopathic ones. There ain't much in-between. Tunisia must be a land of lotus-eaters.
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MeisterEckhart

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Re: What Was the Deal in Syria?
Reply #12 - Dec 10^th, 2024 at 9:28pm

MeisterEckhart wrote on Dec 10^th, 2024 at 9:54am:

The region produces either stable autocracies or psychopathic ones.

There ain't much in-between.

Tunisia must be a land of lotus-eaters.

And the most stable autocracies in the region are nearly all monarchies.

Arab tribal instinct seems to gravitate the people towards chieftains-cum-monarchs whose right to rule is ordained by birthright... and Allah... of course!

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Daves2017 Gold Member Offline Australian Politics Posts: 1905 Gender:	Re: What Was the Deal in Syria? Reply #13 - Dec 10^th, 2024 at 10:36pm Fascinating. I have read a little that all these Middle East countries were simply drawn up by British? Is that a fact? It’s difficult me too fully understand how and why everything has come to be. They seem too hate each other . What is with the Kurds? Why are they our allies one week and enemies the next?
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MeisterEckhart

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Re: What Was the Deal in Syria?
Reply #14 - Dec 10^th, 2024 at 10:58pm

Daves2017 wrote on Dec 10^th, 2024 at 10:36pm:

Fascinating.

I have read a little that all these Middle East countries were simply drawn up by British?

Is that a fact?

It’s difficult me too fully understand how and why everything has come to be.

They seem too hate each other .

What is with the Kurds?

Why are they our allies one week and enemies the next?

The Ottoman Empire was arbitrarily ripped apart by European powers, but the region was not united prior to European meddling.

Arabs are tribal and, like all tribal societies, blood feuds and rivalries can persist for generations.

Add to that the Shia-Sunni, and other, religious divides, and ethnic rivalries, such as, say, among Arabs and Persian or Turkic peoples, - and nevermind military dictatorships persisting for decades - and you have a region permanently on a knife-edge between minor skirmishes and total war.

Even in the time of Mohammed, the region was a seething cauldron. Islam was Mohamed's unifying solution, but, like all intended monolithic religious/political/societal unifying solutions, they succeed only until the inevitable schisms occur... then it becomes a matter of which sect will prevail.

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