aquascoot wrote on Oct 31
st, 2024 at 4:18pm:
ProudKangaroo wrote on Oct 31
st, 2024 at 4:02pm:
The betting markets are only influenced by those who place bets and are very easy to manipulate should you have lots of money and need a metric to point to that shows what the general polling data isn't.
You have to ask yourself, who is placing the bets?
And, if this is the only metric you have telling you what you want to hear, should that worry you?
markets can indeed be wrong but like the share market, a surge is usually based on some sort of information. people dont set out to lose money.
one would think that 99 % of the people who are going to vote have already made up their minds.
it looks like a coin toss. it will be surprising if its a landslide.
trump has possibly won over some crucial votes by being a lot more active in visiting union sites etc
harris thinks that being "not trump" and a "small target" is the way to go.
my feeling is harris is far more likely to win if she comes out and persuades the market she is anti woke
she needs to come out and say that border security, energy security and the nuclear family are core values of hers.
if she does that convincingly, she wins
its astounding to me that she hasnt
That's find and dandy, but it doesn't address the issue of how easily betting markets can be manipulated.
Quote:Exclusive: Election betting site Polymarket gives Trump a 67% chance of winning but is rife with fake ‘wash’ trading, researchers say
The prediction market Polymarket has skyrocketed into mainstream consciousness during the 2024 U.S. elections, with the platform reporting that users have placed $2.7 billion in bets over whether Donald Trump or Kamala Harris will be elected president in early November.
But analysts at two crypto research firms have found evidence of rampant wash trading on Polymarket, even as its odds have been shared widely across social media and mainstream media outlets. Donald Trump currently has a 67% chance of winning, according to the platform.
In separate investigations completed by the blockchain firms Chaos Labs and Inca Digital and shared exclusively with Fortune, analysts found that Polymarket activity exhibited signs of wash trading, a form of market manipulation where shares are bought and sold, often simultaneously and repeatedly, to create a false impression of volume and activity. Chaos Labs found that wash trading constituted around one-third of trading volume on Polymarket’s presidential market, while Inca Digital found that a “significant portion of the volume” on the market could be attributed to potential wash trading, according to its report.
https://fortune.com/crypto/2024/10/30/polymarket-trump-election-crypto-wash-trad... Full article is worth a read.
It's interesting that the Peter Thiel-backed Polymarket would show the greatest positive predictions for Trump. The garage folk have made more out of less before...
As usual, there's more:
Quote:Polymarket Prediction Platform Possibly Manipulated to Favor Trump: Report
Former President Donald Trump's favorable election odds on a popular betting website may have been "manipulated" by a small group, according to a report from The Wall Street Journal.
Trump's odds of defeating Vice President Kamala Harris next month have received a massive boost in recent weeks on Polymarket, an online betting platform that was funded partly by longtime Trump backer Peter Thiel.
Polymarket gave Trump a 60 percent chance of winning on Friday, while Harris was given a 40 percent chance. Although polls continue to show Harris slightly ahead or the race neck-and-neck, the contest was last tied on Polymarket October 4.
The Wall Street Journal reported on Friday that "the surge might be a mirage" created by just four mysterious accounts that have recently spent around $30 million betting on Trump. Polymarket odds are dictated by so-called "collective wisdom" rather than outside factors like polling data.
Miguel Morel, CEO of crypto analysis firm Arkham Intelligence, reportedly said that there was a "strong reason to believe" that all four Polymarket accounts that are betting heavily on Trump "are the same entity."
The accounts—Fredi9999, Theo4, PrincessCaro and Michie—reportedly created between June and earlier this month, were all funded using the same cryptocurrency exchange and all have similar betting patterns.
Political analyst Christopher Gerlacher told The Daily Beast in an article published on Friday that "Polymarket's spike was almost certainly a case of market manipulation."
Rajiv Sethi—an economist who coauthored a paper that concluded $7 million in bets placed on GOP Senator Mitt Romney by a single person before the 2012 presidential election were attempted manipulation—had similar thoughts on the Polymarket Trump bets.
"If I were trying to manipulate a market, this is exactly how I would do it," Sethi told The Wall Street Journal.
https://www.newsweek.com/polymarket-prediction-platform-possibly-manipulated-fav...
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