Centre for Heterodox Social Science Report No. 3 Demographic Change and the Future of the United Kingdom: 2022-2122
University of Buckingham
This paper presents projections for the UK population in terms of race and ethnicity, country of birth, and religious
identity.
• Between the years 2025 and 2050, the share of the population that is White British will decline from 73% to
57%, then 44% by 2075, and 33.7% by the year 2100.
• Between the years 2025 and 2050, the share of the population that is non-White, will increase from 19.7% to
34.8%, 48% by 2075 and 59.3% by 2100.
• When White British is distinguished as a separate ethnic group from ‘White Other’, the White British will
become a minority in the UK by the year 2063.
• Between the years 2025 and 2100, the share of the population that is UK-born and who are not second-
generation migrants in the projection period will fall dramatically, from 81% to 39%, while the share of the
population comprised of people who were born overseas will increase from 18% to almost 26%.
• When the foreign-born population is combined with their offspring, the combined proportion of the projected
foreign-born and second-generation population will rise to 33.5% of the overall UK population in 2050, 47.5%
by 2075 and 60.6% by 2100.
• In other words, by the end of the current century, by 2100, around six in ten people in the UK will either not
have been born in the UK or born to UK-born parents.
• Between the years 2025 and 2050, the share of the UK population that is non-Muslim will fall from 93% in
2025 to 88.8% in 2050, to 84.8% by 2075 and then to 80.8% by the year 2100. At the same time, the share
that is Muslim will rise from 7% in 2025, to 11.2% in 2050, 15.2% by 2075, and then to 19.2% by 2100. This
means that by the end of the current century close to one in five of all people in the UK will be Muslim.
Professor Matt Goodwin, Senior Visiting Professor at the Centre for Heterodox Social Science, at the
University of Buckingham, said: “What these projections show is that the UK is currently on course
to experience enormous and historically unprecedented changes in the composition of its
population.
While the White British are set to become a minority in the country only 38 years from now, in the
year 2063, by the end of the current century these islands will both look and feel profoundly different.
By the year 2100, the White British will only comprise one-third of the population, people who were
born in the UK and can trace their roots back over several generations will represent only around
four in ten people, compared to eight in ten today, and one in five people will be Muslim, all of which
raises profound questions about the capacity of the UK state to both absorb and manage this scale
of demographic change”.
https://www.heterodoxcentre.com/research/chss-report-no-3-demographic-change-and...