Fears of Wider Mideast Conflict Deepen, With U.S. Seen as ‘Not in Control’
American officials said they had no advance warning of the attack on the Hamas leader in Iran, raising worries of a power vacuum that could lead to a broader geopolitical crisis.

By Mark Landler, Reporting from London, Aug. 1, 2024, 5:05 a.m. ET

For months, diplomats and analysts in foreign capitals have worried that prolonged political upheaval in the United States could invite aggression abroad, whether in Russia’s waging of war in Ukraine, North Korea’s rogue nuclear ambitions or China’s expansionist designs in the South China Sea.

Now, less than 100 days before Americans elect a new president, that broader geopolitical crisis has erupted in the familiar theater of the Middle East. The targeted killings of Hezbollah and Hamas leaders in Beirut and Tehran have deepened fears of a regionwide conflict — one that the United States, caught up in its own political drama at home, may have little capacity to avert or even contain.

On Wednesday, Secretary of State Antony J. Blinken said the United States had not been involved in, or even informed of, the operation in Tehran, which the Iranian government swiftly blamed on Israel. To some, Mr. Blinken’s statement confirmed a dangerous power vacuum in the region.

“We thought it would be Vladimir Putin or Xi Jinping or Kim Jong-un who would take advantage of this period in the U.S.,” said Vali R. Nasr, a professor of international affairs at the Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies. “Nobody counted on an American ally doing it.”

“This is going to make the region extremely nervous,” said Mr. Nasr, who served in the State Department during the Obama administration. “It’s never good for the United States to be seen as not in control.”

For President Biden, who expended time and prestige trying to broker a deal between Israel and Hamas to release hostages in Gaza, the back-to-back assassinations of the Hezbollah commander, Fuad Shukr, and the Hamas political leader, Ismail Haniyeh, could signal the futility of his diplomatic efforts, at least for now.

Moreover, the United States could find itself drawn into a direct conflict with Iran, something both countries have taken pains to avoid through months of tensions over the war in Gaza. In April, American officials worked behind the scenes to persuade Iran to limit its military reprisal against Israel after Israeli jets carried out a deadly strike on a meeting of Iranian generals in Damascus, Syria.

This time, however, the killing of Mr. Haniyeh, while he was in Tehran to attend the swearing-in of Iran’s new president, Masoud Pezeshkian, suggests that American sensitivities counted for little, analysts said. Iran’s supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, quickly blamed Israel and vowed “harsh punishment.”