US historian Allan Lichtman's 13 true/false statements have successfully predicted every presidential election bar one since 1984.

The one he got wrong was Al Gore - which, given the circumstances, he gets a pass on.

The Keys to the White House is a checklist of thirteen true/false statements that pertain to the circumstances surrounding a presidential election. If five or fewer of the statements are false, the incumbent party is predicted to win the election. If six or more are false, the incumbent party is predicted to lose.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Keys_to_the_White_House

To date, Lichtman has Biden at 7 of the 8 points needed to win, with the possibility of another 2.

Lichtman gives his final assessment in August of an election year.