Australian Politics Forum - The Keys to the White House

MeisterEckhart

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The Keys to the White House
Jul 6^th, 2024 at 11:10am

US historian Allan Lichtman's 13 true/false statements have successfully predicted every presidential election bar one since 1984.

The one he got wrong was Al Gore - which, given the circumstances, he gets a pass on.

The Keys to the White House is a checklist of thirteen true/false statements that pertain to the circumstances surrounding a presidential election. If five or fewer of the statements are false, the incumbent party is predicted to win the election. If six or more are false, the incumbent party is predicted to lose.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Keys_to_the_White_House

To date, Lichtman has Biden at 7 of the 8 points needed to win, with the possibility of another 2.

Lichtman gives his final assessment in August of an election year.

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Frank

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Re: The Keys to the White House
Reply #1 - Jul 6^th, 2024 at 2:36pm

MeisterEckhart wrote on Jul 6^th, 2024 at 11:10am:

US historian Allan Lichtman's 13 true/false statements have successfully predicted every presidential election bar one since 1984.

The one he got wrong was Al Gore - which, given the circumstances, he gets a pass on.

The Keys to the White House is a checklist of thirteen true/false statements that pertain to the circumstances surrounding a presidential election. If five or fewer of the statements are false, the incumbent party is predicted to win the election. If six or more are false, the incumbent party is predicted to lose.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Keys_to_the_White_House

To date, Lichtman has Biden at 7 of the 8 points needed to win, with the possibility of another 2.

Lichtman gives his final assessment in August of an election year.

Biden is not compos mentis. That is unprecedented and not covered by any of the 13 points.

Thatcher’s husband, Denis, also played a decisive role in coaxing his wife to step down. “ He (Denis) said, ‘You’ve done enough, old girl. You’ve done your share. For God’s sake, don’t go on any longer’.”

Britain’s first female prime minister, and its longest serving prime minister of the 20th century, stood down with her dignity and legacy intact.

Are senior and influential Democrats telling Joe Biden that he should make way for someone else for the good of the party and nation? Where are Biden’s candid friends?

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« Last Edit: Jul 6^th, 2024 at 2:45pm by Frank »

Estragon: I can’t go on like this.
Vladimir: That’s what you think.

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MeisterEckhart

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Re: The Keys to the White House
Reply #2 - Jul 6^th, 2024 at 3:57pm

Lichtman's 2024 assessment for Biden so far is not to just withdraw his candidacy as, given there is no concensus on a replacement, the instability it would cause within the Democratic party would guarantee a loss.

His 'Plan B' as he calls it, if Biden cannot see off Democratic pressure for him not to run is:

“He should resign the presidency for the good of the country, that would be greatly applauded by the American people.

“Kamala Harris, much younger, no issue about her mental sharpness would become president, that would check off the incumbency key, and Biden would release all his delegates to support Harris at the convention to avoid an internal party fight, and that would also check off the contest key."

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Frank

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Re: The Keys to the White House
Reply #3 - Jul 6^th, 2024 at 4:37pm

MeisterEckhart wrote on Jul 6^th, 2024 at 3:57pm:

Lichtman's 2024 assessment for Biden so far is not to just withdraw his candidacy as, given there is no concensus on a replacement, the instability it would cause within the Democratic party would guarantee a loss.

His 'Plan B' as he calls it, if Biden cannot see off Democratic pressure for him not to run is:

“He should resign the presidency for the good of the country, that would be greatly applauded by the American people.

“Kamala Harris, much younger, no issue about her mental sharpness would become president, that would check off the incumbency key, and Biden would release all his delegates to support Harris at the convention to avoid an internal party fight, and that would also check off the contest key."

There is a huge issue with her mental sharpness.

She didn't even make it to the primaries in 2020. She is a liability, like all diversity hires.

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Estragon: I can’t go on like this.
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MeisterEckhart

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Re: The Keys to the White House
Reply #4 - Jul 6^th, 2024 at 5:04pm

Biden's prime-time-aired interview is his first major attempt to prove his competency and see off Democrat pressure to stand down.

The only thing that stands between him and his second term, if Lichtman's near-perfect prediction method holds up, is losing Biden supporters, the never Trumpers and the independents due to questions over his competency.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=k8LoAsHz-Mc

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Sprintcyclist

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Re: The Keys to the White House
Reply #5 - Jul 6^th, 2024 at 5:36pm

MeisterEckhart wrote on Jul 6^th, 2024 at 11:10am:

US historian Allan Lichtman's 13 true/false statements have successfully predicted every presidential election bar one since 1984.

The one he got wrong was Al Gore - which, given the circumstances, he gets a pass on.

The Keys to the White House is a checklist of thirteen true/false statements that pertain to the circumstances surrounding a presidential election. If five or fewer of the statements are false, the incumbent party is predicted to win the election. If six or more are false, the incumbent party is predicted to lose.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Keys_to_the_White_House

To date, Lichtman has Biden at 7 of the 8 points needed to win, with the possibility of another 2.

Lichtman gives his final assessment in August of an election year.

I find it hard to see biden winning

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MeisterEckhart

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Re: The Keys to the White House
Reply #6 - Jul 6^th, 2024 at 5:55pm

Frank wrote on Jul 6^th, 2024 at 2:36pm:

Biden is not compos mentis. That is unprecedented and not covered by any of the 13 points.

I'd say Key 12, (charismatic incumbent), would factor in mental competency.

Mental incompetence may evoke sympathy or pity, but it will detract from any charisma the person may have otherwise had.

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MeisterEckhart

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Re: The Keys to the White House
Reply #7 - Jul 6^th, 2024 at 6:08pm

Sprintcyclist wrote on Jul 6^th, 2024 at 5:36pm:

MeisterEckhart wrote on Jul 6^th, 2024 at 11:10am:

US historian Allan Lichtman's 13 true/false statements have successfully predicted every presidential election bar one since 1984.

The one he got wrong was Al Gore - which, given the circumstances, he gets a pass on.

The Keys to the White House is a checklist of thirteen true/false statements that pertain to the circumstances surrounding a presidential election. If five or fewer of the statements are false, the incumbent party is predicted to win the election. If six or more are false, the incumbent party is predicted to lose.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Keys_to_the_White_House

To date, Lichtman has Biden at 7 of the 8 points needed to win, with the possibility of another 2.

Lichtman gives his final assessment in August of an election year.

I find it hard to see biden winning

Biden's challenge is not to prove that he is not old and is not showing any signs of age - other than that he doesn't have dementia - to keep the never-Trumpers and independents on side.

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Bobby. Gold Member Offline Australian Politics Posts: 110462 Melbourne Gender:	Re: The Keys to the White House Reply #8 - Jul 6^th, 2024 at 6:14pm Only Trump will drain the swamp - this time he'll get rid of the Deep State - those en-elected rulers in the 3 letter agencies: FBI, DOJ, CIA, DHS, CID, DOE, NSA, NRO, DOD. https://wiki.c2.com/?ThreeLetterAgencies
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Karnal

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Re: The Keys to the White House
Reply #9 - Jul 7^th, 2024 at 12:17am

MeisterEckhart wrote on Jul 6^th, 2024 at 3:57pm:

Lichtman's 2024 assessment for Biden so far is not to just withdraw his candidacy as, given there is no concensus on a replacement, the instability it would cause within the Democratic party would guarantee a loss.

His 'Plan B' as he calls it, if Biden cannot see off Democratic pressure for him not to run is:

“He should resign the presidency for the good of the country, that would be greatly applauded by the American people.

“Kamala Harris, much younger, no issue about her mental sharpness would become president, that would check off the incumbency key, and Biden would release all his delegates to support Harris at the convention to avoid an internal party fight, and that would also check off the contest key."

He also says that, were Biden to resign, the Dems would lose the all-important key - incumbency.

Most of his other keys are in line, especially the economy. Foreign policy is questionable. Many Dems can't stomach Gaza. I'd say he's lost that key, but do you know?

Biden is no longer running against a charismatic leader - Trump. He's aged and fossilized, as Aquascoot and others here have pointed out.

If Biden drops out, the Dems lose - according to Lichtman's model.

If his model is right, Sleepy Joe needs to hang in there. It's the only thing that will save the American republic from you-know-who.

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Karnal Gold Member Offline Australian Politics Posts: 97929	Re: The Keys to the White House Reply #10 - Jul 7^th, 2024 at 12:21am Lichtman's model leaves out the all-important issue of vibe. There is a palpable sense in the US that Biden is too old and senile to win. But there was once a vibe for Hillary too. In 2016, everybody was just waiting for her to be sworn in. Lichtman said otherwise, and prevailed.
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Sir Grappler Truth Teller Gold Member Offline Australian Politics Posts: 87241 Always was always will be HOME Gender:	Re: The Keys to the White House Reply #11 - Jul 7^th, 2024 at 1:55am Trump $1.45 .... Biden $2.90 .... Harris $5.40 ....... that other young Democrat White Horse governor bloke about $2.30 ... Anyone Else Evens.... I only watch American politics for the laughs.... "My fellow Armenians - I do a cognitive test every day .... and what's more... I KNOW about it!"
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Sir Grappler Truth Teller

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Re: The Keys to the White House
Reply #12 - Jul 7^th, 2024 at 2:04am

Karnal wrote on Jul 7^th, 2024 at 12:21am:

Lichtman's model leaves out the all-important issue of vibe. There is a palpable sense in the US that Biden is too old and senile to win.

But there was once a vibe for Hillary too. In 2016, everybody was just waiting for her to be sworn in. Lichtman said otherwise, and prevailed.

Well - Hillary threw herself on the feminist sword by going too hard to try for the women's vote - back-fired - most women aren't ratbag feminists.... she should have learned from Julia Gillard when she was about to be deposed - "I'm going to show everyone my real self!".... and blew it big time - sounded hysterical....

I actually think she was better than that - but being as I'm an anti-feminist and am heartily sick and tired of sheilas, sheilas, sheilas BS all the time.... I won't say that in public.... when ya wanna talk to me about racist, separatist, supremacist and divisive issues that yer tryin' ta get movin' against other people ... ya'd better use terms like Equality and Reality, Pilgrim - an' MEAN 'em when ya use 'em .... that other kinda talk don't go too well in these parts.... an' I got a real problem with one man tellin' another man what he can and can't do in his own country on Open Range ....

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“Facts are stubborn things; and whatever may be our wishes, our inclinations, or the dictates of our passion, they cannot alter the state of facts and evidence.”
― John Adams

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MeisterEckhart

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Re: The Keys to the White House
Reply #13 - Jul 7^th, 2024 at 10:04am

Karnal wrote on Jul 7^th, 2024 at 12:21am:

Lichtman's model leaves out the all-important issue of vibe. There is a palpable sense in the US that Biden is too old and senile to win.

But there was once a vibe for Hillary too. In 2016, everybody was just waiting for her to be sworn in. Lichtman said otherwise, and prevailed.

And with Clinton, the vibe was red hot for her.

Seems like the only ones calling a Trump victory were Lichtman and Mike Moore.

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MeisterEckhart

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Re: The Keys to the White House
Reply #14 - Jul 7^th, 2024 at 10:06am

Karnal wrote on Jul 7^th, 2024 at 12:17am:

MeisterEckhart wrote on Jul 6^th, 2024 at 3:57pm:

Lichtman's 2024 assessment for Biden so far is not to just withdraw his candidacy as, given there is no concensus on a replacement, the instability it would cause within the Democratic party would guarantee a loss.

His 'Plan B' as he calls it, if Biden cannot see off Democratic pressure for him not to run is:

“He should resign the presidency for the good of the country, that would be greatly applauded by the American people.

“Kamala Harris, much younger, no issue about her mental sharpness would become president, that would check off the incumbency key, and Biden would release all his delegates to support Harris at the convention to avoid an internal party fight, and that would also check off the contest key."

He also says that, were Biden to resign, the Dems would lose the all-important key - incumbency.

Lichtman says the opposite.

If Harris became president through Biden's resignation, the Dems would hold the incumbency key.

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